There are multiple ways to dominate your fantasy football draft. One of those ways is finding running backs outside the top 24 that could end the year as a top 12 guy.
According to FantasyData, three running backs had an ADP outside the top 24 heading into the 2023 season who finished the year as an RB1 in half-point PPR scoring. Raheem Mostert had an ADP of the RB47 but ended the year as the RB2. Kyren Williams went undrafted in many leagues but finished as the RB6 despite missing five games. James Cook was a popular breakout candidate, getting drafted as the RB29 off the board on average, but finished the season as the RB11.
Which running backs drafted in the 25-36 range have a chance to finish top-12 in 2024? Let’s look at five potential candidates.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Running Back Sleepers: RB3s with RB1 Potential
Jaylen Warren (PIT): ADP 84.7 | RB26
Fantasy players should be excited for the Steelers backfield after the Steelers hired Arthur Smith. Warren ranked first in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (34%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.52) while finishing second in explosive run rate (8.1%) among running backs with at least 110 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he had the fifth-most receptions among running backs despite ranking 21st in route run (237). Warren could finish inside the top five if Najee Harris misses significant time or becomes extremely inefficient.
Raheem Mostert (MIA): ADP 88.3 | RB27
I am on the record for being against drafting Mostert at his ADP. The veteran will see his workload decline with the addition of Jaylen Wright and De’Von Achane’s expanding role. However, he also has league-winning upside and the potential to be a top-12 running back again in 2024. Mostert matched Christian McCaffrey for a league-high 21 offensive touchdowns last season. If Achane struggles to stay healthy and Wright isn’t ready for the NFL, Mostert could have a featured role in a fantasy-friendly offense this year.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR): ADP 91.3 | RB28
The former Texas star is a steal if fantasy players can draft him as an RB3. Brooks should have an RB2 ADP despite starting training camp on the NFI list. He averaged 6.1 rushing yards per attempt and 113.9 yards per game last season. Brooks had the 11th-most missed tackles forced (63) in 2023 despite missing the final four games with a torn ACL (per PFF). Last year, Dave Canales made Rachaad White an RB1 despite averaging only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt. Brooks will be significantly better once healthy.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): ADP 101.7 | RB34
Many had high hopes for Spears heading into the offseason. Unfortunately, the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a significant contract in free agency. Yet, the former Tulane star is one of my favorite mid-round running back draft picks this year. He had the fifth-best explosive run rate (7%) and the ninth-best yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). While Pollard won’t completely disappear into the background, Spears could become the lead running back in Tennessee.
Trey Benson (ARI): ADP 111.3 | RB35
Benson won’t be a fantasy superstar in 2024, with James Conner being the featured running back. However, the rookie is a significant injury to Conner away from a top-12 finish. The veteran has missed over 20% of the games in his career because of injury, including four games in back-to-back seasons. Meanwhile, Benson is an explosive runner with home-run speed, making him a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. The rookie will have some week-winning performances and could be a league winner if Conner misses significant time.
- QB2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July
- RB3s With RB1 Upside: Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June
- WR3s With WR1 Upside: Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July
- TE2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
