Even the most disciplined fantasy managers are subject to recency bias. Every draft season, players’ perceived value is largely influenced by how they performed in the latter half of the previous season. This skewed evaluation often makes us overrate players based on a smaller sample of games. It’s important to consider the entire scope of a player’s fantasy football profile rather than focusing solely on the encouraging aspects.

A player’s emergence in the second half of the season can be caused by several factors. Perhaps it’s the classic case of a rookie who spent the first half of the season growing accustomed to the system and coming into his own in the NFL. In this case, it’s often a safe bet to project this breakout to continue into the following season. Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s 2021 rookie season is a great example. After a quiet start to his career, the former USC WR went on a tear from Weeks 13 to 18 of the regular season. During this span, he accumulated five touchdowns and never finished with fewer than eight receptions in any game. Since then, he’s built upon this second-half emergence and has become one of the elite fantasy assets at the position.

These unexpected increases in production can also be caused by sudden boosts in volume. In these cases, it’s important to distinguish whether this shift in workload was merited or simply due to injuries to surrounding players in the offense. In the latter case, the player’s output is likely to regress to the mean once the other offensive pieces return to full health.

The following list contains players who, from a fantasy football perspective, fared much better in the latter half of the 2023 season. We’ll take a deeper dive into their respective situations to determine whether this production will be prescriptive for the 2024 season.

• 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Recency Bias & Fantasy Football Outlook

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)

Before the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Dak Prescott was wildly disappointing. He performed as the QB19 from Weeks 1 to 6. To the surprise of many, Prescott went on to produce as the QB1 from Weeks 8 to 18. There was a shift in philosophy that was addressed during Dallas’ bye week.

Mike McCarthy’s calling card has always been the running game. He hoped to install this slow-paced offensive system in 2023. However, it became abundantly clear the team’s strength was the passing game led by Prescott and superstar WR CeeDee Lamb. He became less insistent on establishing the ground game led by a struggling Tony Pollard.

The result was a drastic shift in Prescott’s passing attempts. From Weeks 1 to 6, he averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game. This number increased to 36.4 in the remaining games of the season. This high passing volume occurred despite boasting a respectable 7-3 record during that stretch. This goes to show that the air-raid approach was instilled irrespective of game script.

Heading into 2024, the question is whether the Cowboys will continue to be a pass-heavy offensive unit. All signs point towards this game plan carrying over into next season. The team cut ties with starting Pollard and has made very minimal attempts to replace his production. Ezekiel Elliott was mainly brought in for his veteran presence and his familiarity with Dallas’ system. Considering his age and declining efficiency, it’s hard to imagine Elliott will be a focal point in this offense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics, 2023 was his worst season as a pro. His 3.5 yards per carry, 69.2 run grade and 2.54 yards after contact per carry were all career lows.

On the other hand, Prescott proved he’s among the league’s best passers in 2023. According to PFF, he ranked third in passing grade, second in big-time throws and first in passing TDs among all NFL QBs. With the same receiving corps of CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson returning in 2024, there’s no indication Prescott won’t be able to replicate this production next season.

The Cowboys’ defense is likely to take a step back in 2024. The departure of DC Dan Quinn, along with several free agency losses on the defensive line, will negatively impact this unit. If the Cowboys are giving up more points on the defensive end, this will create more positive game scripts for Prescott and the rest of this passing attack.

All things considered, Prescott’s success in the second half of 2023 will translate into the 2024 season. Currently being drafted as the QB9, he is an incredible value selection in drafts.

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

In half-PPR formats, Jayden Reed was the WR47 from Weeks 1 to 9. He then burst onto the scene in the second half of the year, performing as the WR9 from Weeks 10 to 18. What exactly caused Reed’s drastic uptick in fantasy production? The easy answer is Reed’s undeniable talent emerged after spending the first half of his rookie season earning the trust of Matt LaFleur. While this is partially true, there are other important factors to consider.

A heavy portion of Reed’s output came once Christian Watson re-aggravated a lingering hamstring issue in Week 13. This forced the Packers’ hand in shutting him down for the remainder of the regular season. Before this injury, Watson was enjoying his best stretch of the season. He scored four touchdowns and averaged 6.75 targets per game from Weeks 10 to 13. With an entire offseason to gain a full bill of health, expect Watson to return to a full-time starter role in 2024. This will inevitably take away a considerable portion of Reed’s volume.

During his hot spell in 2023, Reed benefited from great fortune in the touchdown department. He reached pay-dirt seven times in the latter half of the season, including two rushing touchdowns. While it’s encouraging Lafleur made a concerted effort to get Reed involved in the ground game, it’d be unwise to rely on this touchdown production. This is especially true given the arrival of Josh Jacobs who, above all else, has proven to have a nose for the end zone thus far in his career. Through the air, much has been said about the arbitrary nature of passing and receiving touchdowns on a year-to-year basis. As high as Jordan Love‘s ceiling is, it’s unlikely he will finish second in the NFL in passing touchdowns again in 2024. Reed is due for considerable touchdown regression this upcoming season.

According to SumerSports, the Green Bay Packers ranked third in percentage of plays ran from 12 personnel (31.6%). Throughout his play-calling career, LaFleur always ran 2-WR sets at a high rate. As someone who ran 75.7% of his routes from the slot, it’s unlikely Reed finds himself on the field in these formations. The likes of Dontayvion Wicks (2023 PFF grade of 77.8), Bo Melton (2023 PFF grade of 85.1) and Romeo Doubs (eight receiving TDs in 2023) are more likely to see the field in these instances. Reed’s path to consistent volume is much murkier than the other players being drafted in his range.

As exciting as Reed’s rookie campaign was, it’s important to recall that a lot of his production came as a result of injuries and arbitrary touchdown luck. With the sheer quantity of talented players in this WR room, it’s hard to imagine he’ll benefit from the same volume in 2024. Expect a slight decline from the numbers he put up in the late stages of 2023.

Devin Singletary (RB – NYG)

Devin Singletary emerged as a fantasy-viable asset the moment he won the starting job over Dameon Pierce. Across the first nine weeks of the season, he performed as the RB55 in half-PPR formats. With time he earned more and more touches in this backfield and subsequently, his fantasy production skyrocketed. He was the RB9 from Weeks 10 to 17.

Across his five seasons in the NFL, Singletary has always been an efficient back. What he truly proved in 2023 was his ability to withstand heavy volume while maintaining efficiency. The 216 carries he saw in 2023 were a career-high. According to PFF, he finished the 2023 season having earned a run grade of 75.4 and 2.85 yards after contact per carry. Both of these tallies are well-aligned with his career averages.

Singletary is now taking his talents to New York, where he’ll be the unquestioned RB1 for the Giants. Given his performance in the latter half of 2023, he’s likely to make the most of this opportunity. The likes of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Eric Gray do not represent realistic threats to his volume, especially in the early portion of the season. Though the Giants’ offense won’t be as explosive as the 2023 Texans, volume alone makes Singletary an incredible value in drafts right now.

He’s currently being selected behind the likes of Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard and Javonte Williams. These players will all face much more challenging hurdles to earn consistent volume in their respective offenses. Based on current average draft position (ADP) data, drafting Singletary is a no-brainer.

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn