The running back dead zone has generally been the third and sixth rounds. Running backs in this range have struggled historically compared to wide receivers and even tight ends in the same span, especially in half-point and full PPR scoring.
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Running Backs to Avoid Inside the Dead Zone
A couple of factors go into the running back dead zone. The top one is fantasy players pushing running backs up in the ADP after seeing an early run at the position in the first two rounds. However, that has changed over the past few years. The general public has become more willing to draft wide receivers early in their drafts. With more wide receivers getting drafted in the first two rounds, running backs have been more appropriately ranked and drafted.
Furthermore, the running back dead zone is arguably gone. The ADP shows that fantasy players are rightfully prioritizing wide receivers over running backs. According to the FantasyPros half-point PPR ADP, 22 wide receivers, two tight ends, and two quarterbacks are coming off the board in the first three rounds. By comparison, only 10 running backs have a top-36 ADP.
While the dead zone might be a thing of the past, there are still running backs that fantasy players want to pass on drafting in that range. Here are three running backs inside the dead zone that I will avoid drafting this season.
Josh Jacobs (GB): ADP 41.3 | RB12
Jacobs signed a massive four-year deal with the Packers in free agency, suggesting he will be the team’s featured running back in 2024. However, Green Bay can get out of his contract after the upcoming season. Furthermore, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense. That’s not surprising, given how much Jacobs regressed from a career year in 2022 to last year, posting career lows in rushing yards (805), yards per attempt (3.5), and touchdowns (six).
The veteran running back saw his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Lloyd pushes Jacobs into a near 50-50 backfield rather than a featured role. Malik Nabers and Trey McBride have a later ADP than the veteran running back. Yet, I would draft both over Jacobs.
Rachaad White (TB): ADP 45.3 | RB13
White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year. However, he was an RB1 because of volume, not his talents. White was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). He also ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate. Furthermore, his explosive run rate (2.2%) was lower than Latavius Murray’s, while his rushing yards after contact per attempt (2.24) was worse than Kevin Harris’ (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, White was a top-10 running back because of his role in the passing game. He had the seventh-most targets (70), fourth-most receptions (64), and third-most receiving yards (549) among running backs last season. Over 44% of his fantasy points scored in 2023 came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again after the Buccaneers added Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving during the NFL Draft. While Amari Cooper and George Pickens have a slightly lower ADP than White, I’ll draft both over the former Arizona State star.
Aaron Jones (MIN): ADP 67.7 | RB19
Jones had an outstanding two-game run during the playoffs. He was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses. However, fantasy players must worry about his regular season struggles, as the veteran running back missed six games and left two others early because of hamstring and knee injuries. More importantly, Jones changed teams this offseason and is coming off arguably the year of his career.
The veteran posted career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Jones ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he turns 30 in December and is on a one-year contract. I would rather draft Chris Godwin and Kyle Pitts in the same ADP range over the veteran running back.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
