Throughout the offseason it’s important to monitor players that are rising and falling in perceived value. That’s especially the case when NFL training camps open and fantasy football drafts approach. Let’s take a look at players trending up and others trending down as you prepare for your fantasy football drafts.
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Players Trending Up & Down
Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering a plethora of options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is The FFPC, which caters more often to the higher-budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands.
The most popular is the FantasyPros Championship: a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner. FFPC uses a full-PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception. Below are the most noteworthy risers and fallers in the last four weeks.
Risers
Demarcus Robinson (WR – LAR): +22 (196)
Reports continue to suggest that Robinson will maintain the WR3 role that he earned down the stretch in 2023. From Week 13 forward, Robinson never finished lower than WR29, averaging 15.4 PPR points per game. He played 90% of the snaps, benefitting from being on a team that plays three-receiver sets more than any other team in the league.
Robinson won’t always be the most reliable start in redraft formats such as this, but, as depth available very late in drafts, he’s worth a shot.
Demarcus Robinson has seen 6+ targets in nine of 14 games (64%) in the last two seasons when he’s had at least a 65% route participation rate
That’s not bad for a WR3 on a team that uses a WR3 at the highest rate in the NFL
And there’s also some contingency upside here, win win
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 3, 2024
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): +40 (259)
The Seahawks’ offense in general is on the rise with TE Noah Fant up 40 spots to 159. Smith has also jumped 40 spots.
Unlike best ball, this redraft contest has waivers, so it means that quarterbacks like Smith won’t always get drafted. However, this rise is significant enough to tell us that people are starting to add him later on in their drafts. With a new and creative play-caller in Ryan Grubb, this Seahawks’ passing game can bounce back this year.
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE): +30 (161)
Early reports suggest Douglas could be the de facto WR1 for the Patriots, as he’s coming off a strong rookie year in a miserable offense. Douglas managed five top-36 weekly finishes in his 13 games, along with averaging 2.2 yards per route, which ranked 28th best among wide receivers with 70 or more targets. If this offense is more fun than last years miserable effort, Douglas might prove to be a bargain.
Jonnu Smith (TE – MIA): +22 (180)
The Dolphins haven’t utilized their tight ends well in recent years, but Mike McDaniel maintains that could well change going forward. Smith hasn’t been the hit many hoped for, but he’s athletic and versatile enough to succeed with a good offensive coordinator after a couple of years with lesser ones in Arthur Smith and the Patriots carousel.
#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on Miami’s use of tight ends:
“Some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be’… There’s opportunities there, for sure.”
McDaniel on Jonnu Smith:
“He has become a master of YAC — not only because of speed, but because of a mindset” pic.twitter.com/o1l4yHEuf9
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 4, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): +15 (58)
When Stevenson signed his new three-year contract with the Patriots, it was obvious that his price would rise in fantasy football. Those who doubted the Patriots commitment to Stevenson had no choice but to accept it, as the team signaled they believed in him.
Stevenson was slow to get going in 2023, dropping from 61 rushing yards per game in 2022 to 51 in the Patriots’ anemic offense. His receptions per game also dropped from 4.1 to 3.1. However, It seemed he was just getting going when he sustained an injury, finishing weeks as the RB2, RB20, and RB7 before missing the rest of the season.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC): +14 (76)
The longer the wait for news about Rice’s potential suspension, the more drafters grow more bullish on his current ADP. Rice will have increased competition for targets this year with Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown added to the mix, but Rice averaged 17.0 PPR points from Week 11 onwards, seeing 8.7 targets per game. At this point in the draft, we can still build around Rice’s suspension risk by having three or four other wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): +8 (36)
As Brandon Aiyuk remains unsigned, Samuel is moving ahead of him. Aiyuk is down five spots to 37th overall. Samuel was more productive than Aiyuk in 2023, having eight top-20 weekly finishes compared to Aiyuk’s four.
Samuel scored touchdowns in 57% of his games compared to Aiyuk’s 40%. Aiyuk likely ends up signing a contract this week. Then, we might see some more movement in this ADP. For now, the prices feel fine on both players.
Brock Purdy to Deebo Samuel after he made nearly half the Giants defense miss on this play:
“Seriously, what goes through your mind, bro? How’d you do that? Like this isn’t high school. These are grown men. Makes no sense.”
via: Netflix: Receiver pic.twitter.com/ExtgbSaDDo
— Coach Yac ???? (@Coach_Yac) July 10, 2024
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL): +4 (20)
Every year, as we get closer to the season, running backs get pushed up draft boards. This year looks to be no different.
It’s uncommon for 30-year-old running backs to get multi-year deals in the NFL, but Henry has been unusual at every point of his career. He has faced 120 more 8-man boxes than the next nearest running back over last the three years. While that could work against Tennessee, two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson ranked first in EPA against loaded boxes last year and will keep defenses more honest.
Henry continues to be excellent after contact, and, while his yards per game has decreased for four straight years to 68.6, he still hasn’t rushed for less than 4.2 yards per carry across any season of his career. Henry has also scored double-digit touchdowns in six straight years. Now, he gets to run as part of an offense that helped Gus Edwards score 13 touchdowns in 2023.
Fallers
Eric Gray (RB – NYG): -90 (290)
There’s been a steady drumbeat of hype for rookie Tyrone Tracy when it comes to the Giants backfield. The latest reports suggest he could earn the passing-down role behind Devin Singletary. If that comes to pass, then it’ll be very hard for Gray to have any value this year.
Gray had one game with more than three touches in 2023, seeing 13 in Week 5. He managed to turn them into only 3.6 PPR points, as he clocked up 26 total yards.
Michael Mayer (TE – LV): -65 (330)
The Athletic reported last week that Mayer has bulked up to 265 lbs, as he looks to solidify a role as a blocking tight end for the Raiders. Even if the Raiders play more two-TE sets this year, which would make sense given the addition of Brock Bowers, then it’s still hard to imagine you’ll ever be able to start Mayer with confidence unless Bowers falls flat on his face.
A big reason why #Raiders rookie Michael Mayer was our TE1 in the draft? His ability as a blocker. This stuff goes unnoticed.
Great rep 1v1 against Khalil Mack!
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) December 15, 2023
Jermaine Burton (WR – CIN): -29 (177)
With Tee Higgins signing his franchise contract and being ready to report to training camp, the hype around Burton has understandably dropped. There still remains the possibility that Burton is a more dynamic replacement for Tyler Boyd in three-receiver sets, but his path to consistency is likely a harder one now.
Burton should be reserved for builds in which you have plenty of wide receivers early and can afford to keep him on the bench to wait and see.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC): -20 (197)
Nobody needed a strong offseason quite like Bigsby who had been expected to take some of the work from Travis Etienne in 2023, helping the latter to stay fresh. Unfortunately, Bigsby bombed massively with two of the four targets that he got, resulting in the opposing defense scoring touchdowns.
The Jaguars gave Bigsby less than five touches in 13 games, as he failed to impress. Reports out of mini-camp and OTAs suggest nothing has clicked yet for Bigsby, so it might be a case in which he’s not fantasy-relevant for the second straight year.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET): -13 (115)
The Lions have gone out of their way to hype up Williams. It really (touch wood) appears to be the former first-round pick’s first ‘normal’ offseason after recovering from a torn ACL in year one and then dealing with a gambling suspension in year two. Unfortunately, it might be that Williams is a better real-life NFL player for the Lions than a fantasy asset.
The Lions boast an excellent running game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, ran the seventh-most rushing plays in 2023, and appear dedicated to that being part of their identity. In addition. the top-two passing options are clearly Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Williams will be an easier pick in best ball than redraft, where his boom-or-bust nature might make him a difficult start.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS): -8 (98)
Brian Robinson Jr. has confusingly been behind Ekeler in ADP for most of the offseason, and that has never made sense. Ekeler is coming off career lows in a number of categories, including missed tackles forced, which tends to be a strong indicator of running backs losing their abilities.
Over the last few years, Ekeler has relied upon receptions to stay afloat in fantasy, but he is now paired with a rookie, dual-threat QB in Jayden Daniels who might not be inclined to check down all that often. If Ekeler isn’t the RB1 in this backfield, it will spell trouble, as Kliff Kingsbury runs a no-huddle offense and tends to keep his lead back on the field more often to stress the opposing defense.
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