3 Players In Make-or-Break Seasons: Running Backs (Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players entering make-or-break seasons.

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Running Backs

Tony Pollard (TEN)

I’ll own the L here. Tony Pollard was a massive disappointment last year. He went from being one of the most explosive backs in the NFL to a rusher that left a ton of yards on the field. Pollard got the role that we all wanted last season, ranking seventh in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and second in red zone touches. He was a volume-eating machine, ranking seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs, but he did very little with the work. Pollard was the RB11 in expected fantasy points per game, but he was the RB23 in fantasy points per game. He was 44th in yards per touch and 37th in yards created per touch. Some of this could easily be due to the injury he sustained in the prior season because his numbers down the stretch were much better. In Weeks 11-18, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, so there’s hope that he bounces back in 2024 with a full offseason to get back to 100%. Tennessee isn’t the sexiest landing spot for Pollard, but considering the contract size and length and the team’s yearning to move quickly to acquire his services, he should be considered their lead back in 2024. Tyjae Spears will push him at every turn, but money talks and Pollard got it this offseason.
– Derek Brown

Javonte Williams (DEN)

Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn’t pretty. Volume wasn’t the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it’s possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver’s early down guy, but don’t be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.
– Derek Brown

Kendre Miller (NO)

Injuries decimated Kendre Miller‘s rookie season. He was limited to only eight games played, and he crossed the 30% snap mark only three times. Miller posted interesting/borderline impressive per-touch numbers when he got opportunities, with a 24% missed tackle rate and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). We’ll see how much work he can siphon off from Alvin Kamara this season, but don’t be surprised if he can eat into his work and carve out a 40-50% snap role weekly. He does have to contend with Jamaal Williams as Kamara’s understudy, so it’s not a clear path to success. Miller is still an intriguing late-round pick/RB4 for 2024.
– Derek Brown