A perfect fantasy football draft is a lofty goal — perhaps an unattainable one.

Your competitors will make it tough on you, throwing banana peels in your path. They’ll poach the players you were hoping to land and will do their best to foil your evil schemes.

It’s essential to have a sound battle plan and the flexibility to alter it when circumstances necessitate a detour.

Let’s get to work on that battle plan.

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Perfect Fantasy Football Draft

Three Core Draft Principles

Here are four tenets that will govern many of my choices in 2024 fantasy drafts:

1. Tailor your draft strategy to the number of WRs your league requires you to start each week.

Your league’s most important league setting is the number of wide receivers you have to start each week. In some leagues, it’s two. In some leagues, it’s three.

If your league requires you to start only two receivers each week, you needn’t commit to either a WR-heavy or RB-heavy strategy. You have the luxury of tactical flexibility.

But if your league requires you to start three receivers each week, WR becomes the most important position on your team.

If your league’s lineup configuration is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, that means 37.5% of your starters (excluding defenses and kickers) will be WRs. That percentage jumps to 50% if you start a WR in your flex spot. With that WRs comprising such a big percentage of your lineup, attack the position early. Your goal should be to bully opponents at the WR position, even if it means taking shortcuts at another position.

Don’t believe the fallacy that the WR position is deep. You’re kidding yourself if you believe the receivers you draft in the 10th and 11th rounds will be able to match the scoring output of the WRs your foes draft in the first six rounds.

2. Be patient at QB and TE.

This is a good year to employ the late-round QB strategy — well, maybe a mid-round QB strategy.

There are good quarterbacks to be found beyond the top 10 and even beyond the top 15. (Trevor Lawrence has an ADP of QB16, and No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams has an ADP of QB13.) You can patiently wait until every other team in your league has drafted a starting quarterback and still get a good one.

Also, there may be less incentive to draft a top quarterback since some of the elites have potential warts. Josh Allen, expected to be the first quarterback selected in most 2024 fantasy drafts, has lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and it’s unclear whether Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir will be able to adequately fill the void. Jalen Hurts‘ passing efficiency slipped last year, and can we count on him to score double-digit rushing touchdowns for a fourth straight year now that the Eagles have added Saquon Barkley and lost one of the keys to the “tush push,” center Jason Kelce, who retired.

The TE position looks unusually deep, too. We’re seeing a youth movement at tight end, with players such as Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid fortifying the position.

One caveat: If you play in a smaller league with 10 or fewer teams, spending up at QB and/or TE makes more sense. The smaller the league, the higher the percentage of teams with a top QB or TE, and the greater the incentive to keep up with the Joneses. Also, the sacrifices you’ll have to make at RB and WR won’t be as big in a shallow league where the talent isn’t spread as thin as in a 12- or 14-team league.

3. Take advantage of discounts on high-upside rookies.

Fantasy drafts often yield discounts on the top rookies simply because no one has seen them play in the NFL yet, so people are reluctant to make substantial bets on them. But often, top-end rookies pay off handsomely.

This year, we have two rookie quarterbacks with QB1 upside. Jayden Daniels has big-time rushing upside and also posted gaudy passing numbers last year en route to winning the Heisman Trophy. Top draft pick and 2022 Heisman winner Caleb Williams has rushing upside and a terrific group of wide receivers in Chicago.

Two rookie receivers who were top-six draft picks will immediately become the No. 1 wide receivers on their respective teams: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

Brock Bowers is quite possibly the greatest rookie TE prospect of all time. He was the SEC Freshman of the Year in 2021, and in both 2022 and 2023, he won the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end.

Of those five high-end rookies, Harrison is the only one who’s expensive in fantasy drafts, with a second-round ADP. Daniels, Williams, Nabers and Bowers are all affordable, and they’re some of my favorite draft targets this season.

Approach to Rounds 1-2

There’s no point speaking in generalities about first-round strategy since it’s so dependent on your draft spot. This is my draft board for the first round (assuming that I’m required to start three WRs):

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Ja’Marr Chase
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Bijan Robinson
6. Breece Hall
7. Justin Jefferson
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
9. Jonathan Taylor
10. A.J. Brown
11. Garrett Wilson
12. Jahmyr Gibbs

I mentioned earlier that I want to hammer the WR position in the early rounds. But the top four RBs are extremely appealing because they’re immensely talented and are projected to have heavy workloads.

Taylor is a player I’m zeroing in on if I’m picking late in the first round. Injuries have cost Taylor 13 games over the last two years, but let’s not forget how good he was in 2021 when he ran for 1,811 yards and scored 20 touchdowns. With the rushing threat that Anthony Richardson provides at quarterback for the Colts, defenses won’t be able to key on Jonathan Taylor. Taylor and Richardson didn’t get to play together at all last year. If they both stay healthy this year, look out.

If I get a running back in the first round, I’m taking a wide receiver in the second round unless something extraordinary happens (like Taylor falling into the middle part of Round 2). My order of preference on second-round receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, Drake London, Davante Adams.

If I get a wide receiver in the first round, I’ll be flexible with my second-round strategy. I wouldn’t mind getting a running back, but there’s only one I’d feel good about drafting in the second round: De’Von Achane. (More on Achane a bit later.)

I have Jahmyr Gibbs ranked 12th overall. From the time David Montgomery returned from a rib injury in Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Gibbs averaged 11.8 carries and 14.5 touches a game. The explosive Gibbs can do quite a bit of damage on that sort of workload, but he’s the only player in the top 12 I’m not entirely comfortable drafting.

I have Saquon Barkley ranked 14th overall, but I’ll be honest: I plan on drafting around Saquon this year. His history of leg injuries concerns me, and I don’t know how much pass-catching upside he has, considering that (1) Jalen Hurts doesn’t throw to his RBs that much, and (2) Saquon hasn’t been particularly effective as a pass-catcher since 2019.

Kyren Williams and Travis Etienne are reasonable second-round options, though there are some mild concerns with both. Kyren was terrific last year, but he’s undersized, and the Rams’ drafting of Blake Corum might herald a reduced workload for Kyren. Etienne was terrific early last season but was much less effective over the second half of the season.

Approach to Rounds 3-6

In principle, I think the Zero RB approach is viable and savvy. In practice, I’m not always comfortable with it and prefer a Hero RB approach. In other words, I want to come out of the first six rounds with at least one running back, quite possibly two.

I’ll consider a QB or TE in this part of the draft, but I won’t automatically take one. Don’t draft both a QB and TE within the first six rounds. Doing so simply requires too great a sacrifice at the all-important WR and RB positions, and you’ll be left with a fragile roster that isn’t built to withstand WR or RB injuries

Mostly, I want to hit the WR position hard in this part of the draft. Rounds 3-6 are a power alley for receivers.

Approach to Rounds 7-10

This is the QB/TE zone if you’ve decided to play the waiting game.

The talent at RB and WR starts to drop off in this portion of the draft, although some worthwhile targets still fall into this range at both positions. Scoop them up.

Approach to Rounds 11+

Continue to build depth at WR and RB. Consider grabbing a second quarterback if you’re in a league with 14 or more teams or a league with a lot of roster spots.

Don’t draft handcuff RBs (i.e., the backups to your starting RBs). When you handcuff your RBs, you’re dedicating two roster spots to a single position on a single NFL team. The best-case scenario is that those two roster spots combine to provide high-level production at one of your RB spots for an entire season. The best-case scenario, if you don’t handcuff a starting RB, is that you strike gold with a pick that otherwise would have been spent on a handcuff. Now you have two players giving you high-level production in two roster spots. Don’t sacrifice that pick to solidify your team’s floor; use it to try to raise your team’s ceiling.

Some leagues require you to draft a team defense and a kicker. If your league has those positions but doesn’t require you to actually draft one of each … don’t. Instead, throw an extra couple of darts at late-round RBs. At worst, you’ll drop those late-round RBs right before the start of the season to get your defense and kicker. But maybe a preseason injury to a starter turns one of those late-round RBs into a winning lottery ticket. It’s worth a shot.

Fitz’s Seven Favorite Draft Targets

And now, the grand finale: some of my favorite 2024 draft targets.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

Achane is typically drafted near the Round 2/Round 3 turn, and some people think that’s too high a price for an RB who doesn’t project to be a workhorse. Yet a lot of those same people have no problem drafting Jahmyr Gibbs near the Round 1/Round 2 turn. Gibbs and Achane are likely to have similar workloads, and are we really so sure Gibbs is the better back? I’m not necessarily saying he isn’t, but Achane was pretty spectacular last year, averaging a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry last season. Granted, the sample size was only 103 carries since Achane missed six games … but still.

Achane has 4.32 speed and extraordinary contact balance for a smaller back. He’s also a good pass catcher. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a sharp playcaller whom we should trust to maximize Achane’s abilities.

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)

Rookie WRs with early first-round NFL Draft capital are very good fantasy investments, as we’ve seen in recent years with players such as Ja’Marr Chase, who had a rookie ADP of WR26; CeeDee Lamb, who had a rookie ADP of WR38; and Jaylen Waddle, who had a rookie ADP of WR46.

Nabers’ ADP is currently WR24. He’s an exceptional route-runner and lethal after the catch. In his final season at LSU, Nabers had 89 catches for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 13 games. Nabers is perceived to have landed in a suboptimal situation with the Giants, but the No. 6 overall pick of the draft will immediately become the top target earner in a Giants’ offense that doesn’t have any other proven pass catchers.

Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR)

Johnson is being drafted as a high-end WR4, and he’s a bargain at that price. He averaged 9.0 targets per game in Pittsburgh over the last four seasons and will now be the undisputed No. 1 receiver for a Panthers offense that should be better under new head coach Dave Canales, who worked wonders with Baker Mayfield in Tampa last year and could have the same effect on second-year QB Bryce Young.

Last year, as of Thanksgiving morning, Adam Thielen was WR10 in PPR scoring, averaging 9.7 targets and 7.6 catches per game. And that was with Bryce Young struggling. That’s the sort of target and catch upside Johnson has for Carolina this year.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

As a rookie, Watson scored eight touchdowns over a four-game span. He also scored four touchdowns over a three-game span last year. But Watson has also dealt with nagging hamstring issues that have caused him to miss 14 games in his first two seasons. Over the offseason, it was discovered that Watson has a muscle imbalance in his two legs — something he’s addressing with his training routine.

Some people are worried that the Packers have an abundance of good young pass catchers vying for targets. But in games where Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were all healthy last season, Watson had a 27% target share, Reed a 22% target share, and Doubs an 18% target share. And Watson’s targets are high-value. His average depth of target was 13.8 yards in 2022 and 15.6 yards in 2023. Watson is 6-foot-4, has sub-4.4 speed, and has shown a knack for scoring touchdowns.

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)

The Commanders’ prized rookie is a discount version of Anthony Richardson, whose ADP is QB5. Daniels offers the same sort of rushing potential that Richardson offers but is a more accomplished passer coming out of college than Richardson was. Daniels averaged 317 passing yards and 3.3 touchdown passes a game for LSU last year, and he’s a sensational runner who had 2,019 rushing yards and 21 TD runs in his final two college seasons.

Not only does Daniels offer dual-threat production as a runner and passer, but the Washington offense is going to play fast under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who likes to push the pace. It’s worth remembering that Kyler Murray finished QB8 in fantasy scoring as a rookie, with Kingsbury running the offense in Arizona. Also, the Washington defense probably isn’t going to be very good, so the Commanders are likely going to be in some shootouts, which bodes well for Daniels’ numbers.

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)

If Robinson earns a majority of Washington’s early-down snaps, he’s likely to benefit from playing with ultra-mobile rookie QB Jayden Daniels and from the rapid offensive pace favored by new Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Remember when Robert Griffin III was a rookie sensation for Washington in 2012? The threat Griffin posed as a runner really opened things up for Washington’s lead back, Alfred Morris, who had 1,600 rushing yards and 13 TD runs that year — the best season of his career by far. It’s possible Daniels has a similar effect on Robinson.

The 6-1, 228-pound Robinson could inherit a touchdown windfall if the Washington offense perks up with Daniels at the controls. When Kingsbury was head coach and playcaller for Arizona in Kyler Murray‘s rookie year, Kenyan Drake had eight touchdowns in eight games with the Cardinals after coming over in a midseason trade with the Dolphins. Drake also averaged 80.4 rushing yards per game with Arizona and 5.2 yards per carry. Yes, the Commander signed Austin Ekeler in free agency, but Ekeler is coming off a poor season, and some of his offseason comments suggest he’s looking for less work than he had with the Chargers.

Brock Bowers (TE – LV)

As mentioned earlier, Bowers is arguably one of the best TE prospects to ever come out of college. I’m surprised there isn’t more enthusiasm for Bowers, considering that we’re coming off a season in which a rookie, Sam LaPorta, led all tight ends in fantasy scoring.

Bowers is fast, has excellent hands, is good at getting open vs. either man or zone, and he’s a beast after the catch. Some people were dismayed that Bowers landed with the Raiders. No, Las Vegas doesn’t appear to have a great QB situation, with either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell manning the position. But Michael Pittman had more than 100 catches last year with Minshew as his primary quarterback, and Davante Adams had more than 100 catches last year with Aiden O’Connell as his primary quarterback. The target competition for Bowers isn’t that fierce. Davante Adams is going to get a bunch of targets, no question, but Bowers could quite possibly be No. 2 in the Raiders’ pecking order for targets.

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