Overvalued Players: T.J. Hockenson, Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins (Fantasy Football)

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering many options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is the FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship), which caters to higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands. Their most popular contest is the FantasyPros Championship, a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner. FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception.

The FantasyPros Championship (FFPC) is the biggest redraft contest competition out there, with a top prize of $1,000,000. Drafts are open right now, including both slow and fast options, and you can save $25 off the price of your first entry with promo code “FANTASYPROS.”

Below are the most obviously overvalued fantasy football players to avoid drafting on FFPC leagues in July.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | ADP: 89.3

On Underdog and DraftKings it’s not uncommon to see T.J. Hockenson fall into the 150-pick range of drafts, which still feels a tad high for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with a new rookie quarterback.

By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be, at best, the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Yes, the tight end-premium scoring makes the position more valuable, but parting with a top-100 pick for a player who could give you nothing for half a season feels like a steep price to pay. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his ADP gets to around pick 150, which it likely will as we get to training camp when he lands on the physically unable to perform list (PUP).

Could the #Vikings TE TJ Hockenson be due for regression in 2024? @DiBonaPFN believes so.

He says, “The Minnesota Vikings are seemingly embracing a rebuild following the departure of former starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Once Cousins went down for the Vikings last season,… pic.twitter.com/Yp8Xft2qfE

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) July 9, 2024

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) | ADP: 106.0

Cleveland hasn’t particularly made it sound like they’re expecting Nick Chubb to come back strong in 2024 after bringing in the more than capable D’Onta Foreman to share the expected workload with Jerome Ford, who was steady last year but far from an every-down type of player. Chubb underwent multiple surgeries to deal with an ACL injury that also included other ligament damage. Last year Breece Hall showed us younger running backs coming off a clean ACL tear can be productive straightaway. However, when other ligaments are involved, like with J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams and Kyler Murray, then typically it’s a trickier recovery ahead. Not to mention Chubb is turning 29 this year and never had the pass-catching upside to bulk his stats.

If Chubb is unable to break away and unable to command a large volume, it’s tough to imagine him regaining his every-down role. Not to mention Chubb is only back with the Browns because he agreed to a sizable pay cut. Chubb is by far one of the most fun running backs in the league, but expecting him to make a big difference in 2024 might be a little too hopeful. Taking him in this range means passing on a lot of healthy and interesting backs.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) | ADP: 128.8

For a player who was expected to do great things coming out of college, J.K. Dobbins has sadly played only nine games since his rookie season (2020), rushing for 542 yards on 100 attempts and dealing with a multi-ligament knee injury that required multiple surgeries and then a torn Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

The Chargers have a highly ambiguous backfield with Dobbins, Gus Edwards and later-round rookie Kimani Vidal, but the opportunities are likely to be limited for Dobbins with him again teaming up with Greg Roman. Dobbins was unhappy with Roman due to him being subbed out at times for Edwards in Baltimore. Dobbins’ contract is so minimal it’ll be no surprise if he gets cut before the season starts, despite the Chargers’ lack of options.

Daniel Popper of @TheAthletic sees Gus Edwards as “the clear lead back” for the LA Chargers, and predicts the current RB depth chart as this:

1. Gus Edwards⁰2. J.K. Dobbins⁰3. Kimani Vidal⁰4. Isaiah Spiller⁰5. Elijah Dotson⁰6. Jaret Patterson pic.twitter.com/EFchrAB2WP

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 10, 2024

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

NFL T.J. Hockenson Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison Nick Chubb D’Onta Foreman Jerome Ford Breece Hall J.K. Dobbins Javonte Williams Kyler Murray Gus Edwards