Overvalued Players: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes (Fantasy Football)

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering many options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is the FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship), which caters to higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands. Their most popular contest is the FantasyPros Championship, a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner. FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception.

The FantasyPros Championship (FFPC) is the biggest redraft contest competition out there, with a top prize of $1,000,000. Drafts are open right now, including both slow and fast options, and you can save $25 off the price of your first entry with promo code “FANTASYPROS.”

Below are the most obviously overvalued fantasy football players to avoid drafting on FFPC leagues in July.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: 12.6

The positives for Saquon Barkley are that he’s now in the most competent offense of his career and will be playing behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with, even if it’s lacking Jason Kelce’s presence. The negatives, though, and there are several of them, are that Barkley’s route to fantasy gold seems somewhat blocked by the ‘Brotherly Shove’ QB-sneak still being allowed, something that led to Jalen Hurts leading the league in touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line last year with 13.

The Eagles have an undefendable play, so why give Barkley goal-line touches for the sake of it? Add to this that the Eagles targeted the running back position at the 12th-lowest rate in the league and it’s quite hard to imagine how Barkley strives and pays off his first-round average draft position (ADP).

Joe Schoen telling Saquon Barkley that he’ll let him hit the open market
pic.twitter.com/wIfp4vx5pP

— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) July 10, 2024

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) | ADP: 33.8

When Josh Jacobs first landed with the Packers it felt like a match made in heaven with a young ascending offense wanting to get younger at the position, but also willing to give out a reasonable-sized contract to the former Raiders back. Unfortunately, the more you consider it the more it seems obvious Jacobs will fail to get the workload he needs to pay off his current ADP.

Matt LaFleur has historically preferred a two-running-back system, using AJ Dillon throughout his time in Green Bay to spell Aaron Jones, despite Jones being hands down the better back. LaFleur’s history with this tactic dates back to Tennessee when he was a coordinator and kept Derrick Henry off the field in favor of Dion Lewis. The reports around Green Bay suggest MarShawn Lloyd will be a big part of the rotation and Jacobs historically hasn’t been efficient enough to make up for anything but a workhorse role.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: 51.2

With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs have made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who have far bigger weekly upsides due to their rushing floor.

Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of those 48, 64% finished as a top-12 quarterback in points per game with 46% finishing inside the top 12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.