Evan Tarracciano | Fri, Jul 5th 2024, 7:06am EDT

7 Overvalued Players in Salary Cap Drafts (2024 Fantasy Football)

Acquiring talent at or below their cost projections is vital to successful budget management in an auction draft. It allows managers more flexibility later in the drafts, allowing them to bid the extra dollar on their desired sleeper picks. Establishing board control and being able to dictate costs is where one wishes to be rather than the opposite scenario, underscoring the importance of flexibility in budget management.

To that end, here are a handful of players who I feel are currently overvalued at their projected cost in a standard-size salary cap format (12 teams, $200 budget) compared to where we collectively have them ranked in our expert consensus rankings (ECR). Their inclusion within this article doesn’t mean I recommend avoiding them altogether, just at their suggested price. For reference, I’m basing my inclusions on FantasyPros’ salary cap values.

Fantasy Football Salary Cap Overvalued Players

Going once, going twice, sold! The hammer slams down against the gavel, and you glance back at your computer screen, staring at a bright and shiny new player for your team. Indeed, this will be the one to put you over the edge to win a championship this year, right? After 15 seconds, another player is nominated at the same position with similar projections, yet they go for seven dollars less. And this happens again and again.

Later in the draft, you and your best friend start a bidding war over a rookie on your favorite team who you are sure will break out in 2024. The excitement of the competition drives you to bid higher and higher, but in the end, you end up acquiring him for almost twice his recommended cost.

The list of potential pitfalls goes on.

Participating in an auction/salary cap draft is a complex strategy game. It’s not just about acquiring the best players, but also about managing your budget effectively. Do you build your team with stars and scrubs? Or take a more balanced approach? Stress youth over experience in a keeper/dynasty format? Price enforce players who are being acquired below their expected value? These decisions make an auction draft more complex than a snake/standard format.

That list goes on, too.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): $10 Projection

Dak Prescott is the final player to hit double-digit figures at the recommended cost for the quarterback position. I’m not sure I would be willing to spend the extra amount to acquire his services. He currently ranks QB8 in ECR but is QB5 at cost. The disparity of a few dollars isn’t the most significant divide in the world, but anyone who has participated in an auction draft knows that every dollar matters greatly.

I’d have a better feeling spending $7 on the upside of Kyler Murray or Jordan Love instead, given the choice. Prescott had a phenomenal 2023 when he led the league in both passing touchdowns (36) and completions (410), thanks mainly to his chemistry with consensus WR1 CeeDee Lamb. Banking on Prescott to repeat, if not exceed those figures, is a risk I’d be unwilling to take.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): $4 Projection

A price tag of just four dollars isn’t expensive, but I feel the money would be best spent elsewhere. Trevor Lawrence ranks QB13 on our dollar value chart and QB17 in ECR. At half of his cost, one could acquire Kirk Cousins. For one-fourth of his price, you could spend a dollar on Jared Goff. I feel safer with the latter options.

Expected to take a giant leap forward in his progression, Lawrence disappointed managers by finishing as the QB14 in 2023, regressing in completions, touchdown passes and passing yards from the year prior. Our projections have him mired around similar totals as last year’s finish, even after Jacksonville signed Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. Lawrence needs to be a more consistent player after another Jekyll and Hyde season.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): $48 Projection

Anyone following my writing career knows it pains me to have Kyren Williams on this list, as I’ve been his most ardent supporter since college. Finally allowed to be the lead back for Los Angeles last year, Williams responded with a phenomenal season, finishing as the RB5 with over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns. So why the inclusion? I have a hard time assuming Williams will see the same volume of overall touches in 2024 due to the presence of Blake Corum.

Williams was fourth in red-zone touches, first in snap share and fourth in opportunity share in 2023. He averaged nearly 23 touches per game from Weeks 2-17 due to little competition from Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers — they weren’t talented enough to get him off the field. The Rams invested a third-round pick on Corum and have a role in mind for the Heisman finalist. Corum is unlikely to siphon passing down snaps away from Williams, but his undisputed short-yardage and goal-line role could be in jeopardy.

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA): $24 Projection

To be entirely fair, I could have selected either Miami Dolphins running back as overvalued for this article, but De’Von Achane has been featured in enough articles of late. Why Mostert after he finished as the RB3 in PPR formats last year? Pull up a chair. Mostert had other-worldly touch efficiency as Miami’s primary back, scoring 21 total touchdowns and handling the most considerable workload of his nine-year career.

We anticipate Miami phasing in Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright to form a committee situation, at the bare minimum, assuming Achane doesn’t overtake Mostert outright. To his credit, Mostert has mainly remained healthy each of the last two seasons, but he has a lengthy injury history that one can’t also dismiss. A $24 projection places him ahead of Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones and James Conner — all of whom rank higher than him in ECR.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): $24 Projection

Seattle’s decision to bring in Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator has sparked plenty of hope amongst Seahawks faithful for a renaissance, especially after the notion that DK Metcalf could line up in the slot more in 2024 as a mismatch. During his five seasons in Seattle, Metcalf has averaged 74 receptions per season. This low total has capped his ceiling in PPR formats as a mid-range WR2.

A physical marvel who is a contested-catch specialist and red-zone threat, Metcalf cedes short to intermediate targets to fellow wideouts Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Should Grubb lineup Metcalf all over the formation and pepper him with additional targets, the high-cost projection could pay out, but that is an assumption. At $24, one could instead pivot to Davante Adams (more of an alpha role), Marvin Harrison Jr. (nearly uncontested for targets and is younger) or Brandon Aiyuk (has statistically been better and is on a more explosive offense).

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): $28 Projection

Deebo Samuel’s assumed cost was the most significant outlier at the position, bar none. Ranked as the WR8 in cost, but WR19 in ECR was too much of a distinction not to point out. A big-play specialist who is a dangerous threat in the return game and backfield, Samuel’s versatility is a significant boon for San Francisco, especially with the most recent changes to the kickoff rules. However, he has failed to eclipse 60 receptions in four of his first five years in the league, is constantly dealing with soft-tissue injuries and has to deal with the 49ers’ propensity to spread the ball to other playmakers. Christian McCaffrey‘s presence eliminates Samuel’s rushing upside. The team also drafted Ricky Pearsall to strengthen their receiving core. Samuel isn’t the same X factor he used to be, and his mammoth $28 price suggestion could instead go towards players with more upside (Garrett Wilson, $27) or consistency (Mike Evans, $26).

Tight Ends

David Njoku (TE – CLE): $18 Projection

Does it pain anyone else to see Deshaun Watson back under center for Cleveland after the team’s success with Joe Flacco last year? Like many others on the team, David Njoku performed at a much higher level with Flacco in 2023, nearly doubling his weekly point floor than with Watson. The hope is Cleveland saw enough glimpses of Njoku’s potential after he finished with career-highs in receptions (81), receiving yards (882) and touchdowns (eight) last year to reward him with a more prominent role in 2024. Banking on a rebound from Watson is something I’m unwilling to do after he appeared cooked in 2023 before injury. Rather than spending the $18 on Njoku, I’d instead make the recommended investments in Dalton Kincaid ($12), Evan Engram ($10) or Trey McBride ($14) to solidify the position.

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