Acquiring talent at or below their cost projections is vital to successful budget management in an auction draft. It allows managers more flexibility later in the drafts, allowing them to bid the extra dollar on their desired sleeper picks. Establishing board control and being able to dictate costs is where one wishes to be rather than the opposite scenario, underscoring the importance of flexibility in budget management.
To that end, here are a handful of players who I feel are currently overvalued at their projected cost in a standard-size salary cap format (12 teams, $200 budget) compared to where we collectively have them ranked in our expert consensus rankings (ECR). Their inclusion within this article doesn’t mean I recommend avoiding them altogether, just at their suggested price. For reference, I’m basing my inclusions on FantasyPros’ salary cap values.
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Fantasy Football Salary Cap Overvalued Players
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA): $24 Projection
To be entirely fair, I could have selected either Miami Dolphins running back as overvalued for this article, but De’Von Achane has been featured in enough articles of late. Why Mostert after he finished as the RB3 in PPR formats last year? Pull up a chair. Mostert had other-worldly touch efficiency as Miami’s primary back, scoring 21 total touchdowns and handling the most considerable workload of his nine-year career.
We anticipate Miami phasing in Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright to form a committee situation, at the bare minimum, assuming Achane doesn’t overtake Mostert outright. To his credit, Mostert has mainly remained healthy each of the last two seasons, but he has a lengthy injury history that one can’t also dismiss. A $24 projection places him ahead of Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones and James Conner — all of whom rank higher than him in ECR.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): $24 Projection
Seattle’s decision to bring in Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator has sparked plenty of hope amongst Seahawks faithful for a renaissance, especially after the notion that DK Metcalf could line up in the slot more in 2024 as a mismatch. During his five seasons in Seattle, Metcalf has averaged 74 receptions per season. This low total has capped his ceiling in PPR formats as a mid-range WR2.
A physical marvel who is a contested-catch specialist and red-zone threat, Metcalf cedes short to intermediate targets to fellow wideouts Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Should Grubb lineup Metcalf all over the formation and pepper him with additional targets, the high-cost projection could pay out, but that is an assumption. At $24, one could instead pivot to Davante Adams (more of an alpha role), Marvin Harrison Jr. (nearly uncontested for targets and is younger) or Brandon Aiyuk (has statistically been better and is on a more explosive offense).
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): $28 Projection
Deebo Samuel’s assumed cost was the most significant outlier at the position, bar none. Ranked as the WR8 in cost, but WR19 in ECR was too much of a distinction not to point out. A big-play specialist who is a dangerous threat in the return game and backfield, Samuel’s versatility is a significant boon for San Francisco, especially with the most recent changes to the kickoff rules. However, he has failed to eclipse 60 receptions in four of his first five years in the league, is constantly dealing with soft-tissue injuries and has to deal with the 49ers’ propensity to spread the ball to other playmakers. Christian McCaffrey‘s presence eliminates Samuel’s rushing upside. The team also drafted Ricky Pearsall to strengthen their receiving core. Samuel isn’t the same X factor he used to be, and his mammoth $28 price suggestion could instead go towards players with more upside (Garrett Wilson, $27) or consistency (Mike Evans, $26).
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