Acquiring talent at or below their cost projections is vital to successful budget management in an auction draft. It allows managers more flexibility later in the drafts, allowing them to bid the extra dollar on their desired sleeper picks. Establishing board control and being able to dictate costs is where one wishes to be rather than the opposite scenario, underscoring the importance of flexibility in budget management.
To that end, here are a handful of players who I feel are currently overvalued at their projected cost in a standard-size salary cap format (12 teams, $200 budget) compared to where we collectively have them ranked in our expert consensus rankings (ECR). Their inclusion within this article doesn’t mean I recommend avoiding them altogether, just at their suggested price. For reference, I’m basing my inclusions on FantasyPros’ salary cap values.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Salary Cap Overvalued Players
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): $10 Projection
Dak Prescott is the final player to hit double-digit figures at the recommended cost for the quarterback position. I’m not sure I would be willing to spend the extra amount to acquire his services. He currently ranks QB8 in ECR but is QB5 at cost. The disparity of a few dollars isn’t the most significant divide in the world, but anyone who has participated in an auction draft knows that every dollar matters greatly.
I’d have a better feeling spending $7 on the upside of Kyler Murray or Jordan Love instead, given the choice. Prescott had a phenomenal 2023 when he led the league in both passing touchdowns (36) and completions (410), thanks mainly to his chemistry with consensus WR1 CeeDee Lamb. Banking on Prescott to repeat, if not exceed those figures, is a risk I’d be unwilling to take.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): $4 Projection
A price tag of just four dollars isn’t expensive, but I feel the money would be best spent elsewhere. Trevor Lawrence ranks QB13 on our dollar value chart and QB17 in ECR. At half of his cost, one could acquire Kirk Cousins. For one-fourth of his price, you could spend a dollar on Jared Goff. I feel safer with the latter options.
Expected to take a giant leap forward in his progression, Lawrence disappointed managers by finishing as the QB14 in 2023, regressing in completions, touchdown passes and passing yards from the year prior. Our projections have him mired around similar totals as last year’s finish, even after Jacksonville signed Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. Lawrence needs to be a more consistent player after another Jekyll and Hyde season.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): $48 Projection
Anyone following my writing career knows it pains me to have Kyren Williams on this list, as I’ve been his most ardent supporter since college. Finally allowed to be the lead back for Los Angeles last year, Williams responded with a phenomenal season, finishing as the RB5 with over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns. So why the inclusion? I have a hard time assuming Williams will see the same volume of overall touches in 2024 due to the presence of Blake Corum.
Williams was fourth in red-zone touches, first in snap share and fourth in opportunity share in 2023. He averaged nearly 23 touches per game from Weeks 2-17 due to little competition from Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers — they weren’t talented enough to get him off the field. The Rams invested a third-round pick on Corum and have a role in mind for the Heisman finalist. Corum is unlikely to siphon passing down snaps away from Williams, but his undisputed short-yardage and goal-line role could be in jeopardy.
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