This season promises to be one of the best in recent memory. Major signings have owned the headlines, but several smaller and mid-sized moves could significantly alter your draft strategy. It’s never too early to think ahead and lay the groundwork for your 2024 fantasy campaign. Over the next few weeks, we’ll challenge and inspire your thoughts on draft strategies to help you become a league champion. To start we’ll dive into overvalued players to avoid in fantasy basketball drafts.

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Overvalued Players to Avoid in Fantasy Basketball

Our first goal is managing player hype and meeting your expectations for the new season. We’ll expose seemingly overvalued players to help you avoid overcommitting to potentially underwhelming assets.

While making definitive claims about player value early in the offseason is challenging, we’ll use historical data and team contexts to evaluate key players and impact your draft strategy. Use this article to refine your approach and prepare your action steps.

Fantasy Format

Scoring Type:

Head-to-Head (Most Categories)

Player Stat Categories:

• Points Scored (PTS)
• Total Rebounds (REB)
• Assists (AST)
• Steals (ST)
• Block Shots (BLK)
• 3-Point Shots Made (3PTM)
• Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
• Free Throw Percentage (FT%)

Roster Positions:

• Point Guard (PG)
• Shooting Guard (SG)
• Guard (G)
• Small Forward (SF)
• Power Forward (PF)
• Center (C) x 2
• Utility (UTIL) x 2
• Bench (BN) x 2
• Injured List (IL) x 3

Data Sources

• NBA Player Stats: NBA.com – 2023-2024
• NBA Player Fantasy Rankings: Yahoo.com – 2023-2024
• Average Draft Position (ADP): Source FantasyPros – 2023-2024

Term Guide

Overvalued Players to Avoid

Points

Steph Curry (PG, SG – GSW) | 26.4 PPG – Rank: 11th

Trouble in Paradise

Since their 2021 championship run, the Golden State Warriors have faced challenges that tested their team’s integrity and culture. Off-court issues, leadership changes and a rocky transition from the Steph Curry-Draymond Green–Klay Thompson era have raised questions about the team’s competitiveness and direction. These issues also cast doubt on Steph Curry’s remaining years and legacy. Despite being one of the league’s top offensive players, Curry’s overuse and team pressures may diminish his value in the 2024 fantasy season.

The Opportunity Cost of a Legend

Last season, Curry averaged 26.4 points per game, ranking 11th in the league. He continued to excel in crucial fantasy categories. However, his production in other areas could threaten his elite ADP. Managers must weigh the opportunity cost of drafting Curry against emerging draft assets and evolving strategic needs. The Warriors’ uncertain direction could impact Curry’s ability to maintain his high production level. Considering alternative strategies is essential.

Consider Instead

• Ja Morant (PG – MEM) | 25.1 PPG – Rank: 18th
• Trae Young (PG – ATL) | 25.7 PPG – Rank: 15th
• Cade Cunningham (PG, SG – DET) | 22.7 PPG – Rank: 29th

Assists

Kyrie Irving (PG, SG – DAL) | 5.2 APG – Rank: 45th

Short of Expectations

The Mavericks showed promise but ultimately fell short against the Celtics. Kyrie Irving, a basketball savant, struggled to deliver an inspiring Finals performance. His pairing with Luka Doncic showed potential, but Irving’s inconsistent identity on the team left doubts about his long-term fantasy value. His 2023 campaign was underwhelming, and his role fluctuated throughout the season.

While we saw that his teaming up with Luka Doncic could yield incredible returns for the team, his inability to show himself as an equally important piece of the partnership could’ve left a bad taste in many who believed in his talent and potential. While his 2023 campaign was riddled with some inconsistency and unknowns, it was still somewhat underwhelming in light of his decorated career.

Irving’s identity on the team, and more specifically, the identity of his contributions, often fluctuated throughout the season and never seemed to settle into a pocket of comfortability that would allow us to fully believe in his production and long-term value from a fantasy perspective.

Do More With Less

He is undoubtedly a special playmaker, both with and without the ball in his hands. While his 5.2 assists per game were good for 45th in the league, his ability to do more without the ball in his hand could become more critical for his value, especially with such an offensively gifted teammate in Luka Doncic.

While Irving can be seen as a safe bet for fantasy production night in and night out, his lack of consistency in putting together a comprehensive performance we can invest and believe in could make him more of a risky investment than we would like.

Consider Instead

• Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK) | 6.7 APG – Rank: 16th
• Cade Cunningham (PG, SG – DET) | 7.5 APG – Rank: 11th
• Dejounte Murray (PG, SG – NOP) | 6.5 APG – Rank: 20th

Rebounds

Julius Randle (PF – NYK) | 9.2 RPG – Rank: 21st

Great Promise

The Knicks transformed from an unimpressive team to one of the league’s best in three years. Their recent acquisitions suggest championship potential, but integrating and optimizing their talent poses challenges. Julius Randle’s return adds another layer of complexity. His role and value may change significantly due to the team’s evolved dynamics.

Although the team has grown exponentially in talent and potential, the obstacles, while less abrasive, still sit on the horizon as they look to find a way to build, integrate and calibrate their stable of talent. While the forming and “reunification” of the New York Nova squad heads the tip of the growing spear that is the Knicks, the team will find it a task to try to align the squad to maximize the unique gifts and contributions of all their key and role players.

Too Many Options

One would rightfully assume the signing of Mikal Bridges, the recommitment of OG Anunoby and the return of Julius Randle should spell immediate success; however, there is a chance it doesn’t at the onset. While the implications of these moves can most certainly lead to championship-level success for the team, how this translates to fantasy success could be a bit more challenging to track than one might think.

The team has a voracious frontcourt and assets that are flexible enough to evolve the traditional context of both these core parts of the team. This could lead to a more role-aligned team approach to addressing any weaknesses of the team instead of overleveraging the talents of individual contributors.

Randle, while talented, may not be needed in the way he once was before his exit. To be quite frank, the team is quite literally a different one since he last played. How he will respond to the changes in team dynamics and his changed role could significantly impact his value and status as a high-end fantasy asset.

His 9.2 rebounds per game, good for 21st in the league, is attractive; however, it doesn’t show as high a selling point to justify his potentially elite-level ADP, given his limited production across other categories. While investing in some shares of this exciting Knicks squad will more than likely be a theme in high-performing fantasy teams this season, figuring out who, how and why will be an entire journey in itself.

Consider Instead

• Jalen Johnson (SF, PF – ATL) | 8.7 RPG – Rank: 24th
• Jalen Duren (C – DET) | 11.6 RPG – Rank: 5th
• Josh Hart (SG, SF – NYK) | 8.3 RPG – Rank: 29th

Steals

OG Anunoby (SG, SF – NYK) | 1.4 SPG – Rank: 21st

More Than a Specialist

OG Anunoby is central to the Knicks’ strategy. Despite health issues, his trade paid off immediately. However, his fantasy value may hinge on his deployment in the team’s scheme. Anunoby’s defensive prowess, averaging 1.4 steals per game and ranking 21st in the league, makes him valuable for specialist rosters.

The team’s increased talent and uncertain direction could impact Anunoby’s true value, potentially skewing his ADP and overall return on investment (ROI). Managers must assess Anunoby’s role and contribution to determine his fantasy potential. His niche value as a defensive specialist could be crucial for managers focusing on specific categories.

Consider Instead

• Chris Paul (PG – SAS) | 1.2 SPG – Rank: 39th
• Amen Thompson (PG, SG, SF – HOU) | 1.3 SPG Rank: 30th
• Alex Caruso (PG, SF – OKC) | 1.7 SPG – Rank: 8th

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF, C – MEM) | 1.6 BPG – Rank: 13th

Derailed Greatness

After two consecutive years of placing second in the Western Conference and showing promise as one of the league’s most electrifying teams, anything and everything went wrong for the Grizzlies in 2023. From losing their franchise player due to character concerns and then injury to dealing with an onslaught of injuries that riddled all fronts of their team, the organization did its best to weather a storm that did all it could to derail the momentum of a young, talented team.

While it’s hard to say the storm didn’t accomplish its goal, there is still hope the effects aren’t systemic and that it is merely a short stop on their way back to and beyond the newfound success found in 2021. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a large part of realizing that success and has demonstrated elite-level potential as an impressive two-way player. His ability to score is only outdone by his defensive feats, especially when protecting the rim, as he was able to average a sensational 1.6 blocks per game, good for 13th in the league.

New Competition

However, his average of 3.6 personal fouls and 2.4 turnovers per game, in light of the team opting to draft talented Zach Edey ninth overall in this year’s draft, could put him on a shorter leash for making these kinds of game-altering mistakes with the arrival of the young Boilermaker.

Edey is bigger than Jackson and can do what he does as a two-way player, with the potential of doing it better and with fewer risks. In his final season at Purdue, he averaged 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.2 blocks per game, shooting 62.3% from the floor and 50.0% from beyond the arc.

While Jackson’s production doesn’t seem likely to change enough to invalidate his importance and value to most fantasy managers, it does stand to be impacted from a fantasy standpoint in that the benefits that once outpaced the risks could be slowed just enough to force drafters to entertain other options before justifying his acquisition at his potentially elite level ADP.

Consider Instead

• Nic Claxton (C – BKN) |2.1 BPG – Rank: 8th
• Kristaps Porzingis (PF, C – BOS) |1.9 BPG – Rank: 9th
• Isaiah Hartenstein (C – NYK) |1.1 BPG – Rank: 25th

Three-Pointers Made

CJ McCollum (PG, SG – NOP) | 3.6 3PG – Rank: 3rd

Conservative Competition

The Pelicans have struggled to sustain momentum in the competitive Western Conference. CJ McCollum, once a forceful offensive option, has shown limitations in igniting the offense. His 3.6 three-pointers per game, ranking third in the league, may be inflated by circumstance.

While McCollum has historically been able to find success as a forceful complimentary offensive option back during his time in Portland and as demonstrated in his short stint with the Pelicans, his at-times conservative play exacerbated his limitations in igniting the offense, leaving a lot to be desired and unmet due to a lack of impactful, viable and consistent options after Brandon Ingram. Even with the need and the opportunity, McCollum has yet to show promising signs of being able to take his offensive contribution to the next level and capitalize on his critical role to help reap managers’ sizable returns.

While his 3.6 three-pointers made per game, good for third in the league, is impressive, when put into context, it could be more inflated and a result of circumstance rather than intention than we might hope. On the year, McCollum averaged 16.0 field goal attempts and 8.4 three-point attempts per game. While those are competitive, the addition of Dejounte Murray could decrease his role sizably.

A Better Option

On a team with Trae Young and a stable of offensively aggressive talent, Murray averaged 18.8 field goal attempts and 7.1 three-point attempts per game; this observation becomes an interesting one because it could indicate just how offensively aggressive Murray can be despite not being the clear-cut second-priority offensive option on the floor.

This observation becomes even more interesting when considering that he will now be going to a team that will be looking to him to serve as the electrifying catalyst to give their offensive arsenal some more bite to hang with the offensively gifted Mavericks, Nuggets and other teams.

McCollum may see his offensive contribution significantly tamed and his overall production limited due to him being possibly positioned as more of a disciplined facilitating playmaker than a playmaker himself. Not reacting and jumping on him to fill a need for bolstering your team’s floor at the risk of forgoing an explosive, albeit riskier, take may be a scenario you need to be prepared for to effectively navigate and set your strategy for building your core.

Consider Instead

• Paul George (SG, SF, PF – PHI) | 3.3 3PM – Rank: 8th
• Anfernee Simons (PG, SG – POR) | 3.4 3PM – Rank: 6th
• Coby White (PG, SG – CHI) | 2.6 3PM – Rank: 33rd

Field-Goal Percentage

Desmond Bane (SG, SF – MEM) | 46.4% – Rank: 237th

Trying Time for a Special Talent

The Grizzlies are in an unfortunate state right now; hopefully, they catch a break, but we can only watch at this point to see how they navigate these trying times. The hope is that they come back stronger, but while mental strength is a major driving force to success, it seems that physical strength is equally, if not more, of the culprit, holding their promise hostage at this point.

Desmond Bane is a special player. Although he offers most of his value as an offensive gift, he has developed a persona of utility that kept managers encouraged anytime he touched the floor. Bane shot 46.4% from the floor this season, good for 237th in the league. While this was the lowest mark of his career, he operated in less-than-ideal circumstances all season long.

Despite doing so, Bane was able to find some success this season, which could, on the surface level, present as a promising silver lining if he can get healthy along with the rest of his team. It is, however, that favorable scenario that poses a potential risk to his overall value.

Strength in Numbers!?

We don’t know how this team will look when at full strength, nor do we know what direction they will go when opting to deploy their wide array of talent. This season was the single most significant “tryout” for any and every player on this team. While there were glaring gaps in production due to their stars being absent, either for health reasons or personal consequences due to their actions, there were some that stepped up and showed promise.

Scotty Pippen Jr., GG Jackson, Ziaire Williams and Vince Williams Jr. each showed they could carry their own at some point in the season. Add the return of key players like Marcus Smart and Ja Morant and the addition of Zach Edey, and the impact on Bane’s opportunities could be substantial.

Bane’s value could be limited by the team’s need to reintegrate and recalibrate their lineup, creating a potentially uncertain environment for his production. While he has historically earned what will surely be an elite ADP, with all of these moving parts, there is no telling where his actual value will land for this upcoming season.

Consider Instead

• Jonathan Kuminga (PF, GSW) | 52.9% FG% – Rank: 104th
• Dejounte Murray (PG, SG – NOP) | 45.9% FG% – Rank: 261st
• Jalen Johnson (SF, PF – ATL) |51.1% FG% – Rank: 123rd

Free-Throw Percentage

De’Andre Hunter (SF, PF – ATL) | 84.7% FT% – Rank: 121st

Anticlimactic Climb

Atlanta hasn’t been able to jump to the next level as a team since unceremoniously ending the Sixers’ season in the Eastern Conference semi-finals in 2021. Even when looking to do so by adding multi-talented Dejounte Murray, their investment failed to make a return even close to the paper-promising potential it showed when the trade was announced.

With the leaving of Murray to the Pelicans, the team once again finds itself at a pivotal juncture in its history as they were able to see some success out of their young players. While the future does offer some promising experiences, the team has a stable of seasoned vets that could offer higher than usual value.

Hunting for Value

The likes of De’Andre Hunter ring a bell as he managed to post solid offensive numbers this season, especially from a multi-categorical standpoint. In addition to his overt positive production across several major categories, his production at the line offered additional value, providing an extra advantage in competitive weekly matchups.

Hunter averaged 3.4 free-throw attempts per game, shooting 84.7% from the line, good for 121st in the league. While getting consistent production in these niche categories can be hit-or-miss, he offers enough utility across offensive categories that could inspire you to be more nuanced, borderline too cute, in addressing your needs early on in your draft.

A careless 1+1 approach, however, in punting a category in hopes of cashing in on his potential in later rounds could spell disaster if you overhope and over-commit. Hunter had a way of exhibiting boom-or-bust tendencies throughout the season, and while never formally “busting,” he would often seem to come up short at the most inopportune times.

The value is there, and while he won’t present any conflict with your early round decisions, he can contribute to some stress later down the line should one decide only to see his upside.