Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones

The Scott Fish Bowl is underway, meaning the 2024 fantasy football season is approaching. Therefore, now is the time to start preparing for your redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy players winning their redraft league every year. Yet, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.

Let’s look at players that are overpriced draft values based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues. Here are overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on Sleeper.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Sleeper Leagues

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

Sleeper ADP – 36.8 | QB3

While he won his second MVP award last season, Jackson wasn’t the top fantasy quarterback. The superstar was the QB4, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Jackson had some massive spike weeks but also had some awful fantasy performances. He scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in nearly a third of the games. Furthermore, Jackson posted the lowest rushing yards per game average of his career as a starter (51.3). His rushing average will likely be even lower in 2024 with the addition of Derrick Henry this offseason.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Sleeper ADP – 26.5 | RB11

Jacobs signed a massive four-year deal with the Packers in free agency, suggesting he will be the team’s featured running back in 2024. However, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense. That’s not surprising, given how much Jacobs regressed from a career year in 2022 to last year, seeing his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% (per Fantasy Points Data).

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)

Sleeper ADP – 60.3 | RB18

The veteran was outstanding during the playoffs, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game against two talented defenses. However, Jones missed six games and left others early because of injuries. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). I would rather draft David Montgomery with a later ADP over Jones.