The 2024 NFL Hall of Fame game is less than two weeks away. Therefore, it’s time for fantasy players to prepare for their redraft leagues.
Many factors go into winning your fantasy football league. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six players that are overpriced fantasy football draft values based on Yahoo ADP.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Yahoo Leagues
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
- Yahoo ADP – 101.1 | QB12
Tagovailoa began last year on fire, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, his production fell off a cliff in the second half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees (per Fantasy Points Data). He averaged fewer fantasy points per game (15.9) than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last year.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
- Yahoo ADP – 51.5 | RB19
The veteran was the RB2 in the playoffs on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, Jones struggled to stay healthy during the regular season. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should draft Ty Chandler several rounds later than Jones at his ADP.
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)
- Yahoo ADP – 71.4 | RB24
Mostert was outstanding in 2023, ending the year as the RB2, averaging 16.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran scored over 52% of his career touchdown total last season, leading the NFL with 21 offensive scores. More importantly, 51.9% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 and had 21 offensive scores. Yet, only 35.2% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns last year. Mostert will likely see his workload diminish with the addition of Jaylen Wright and De’Von Achane’s expanding role.
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
- Yahoo ADP – 45.3 | WR22
There are two reasons why fantasy players should avoid drafting Diggs as a WR2 in 2024. The veteran has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from last year in Houston. The veteran should be the third Texans receiver drafted and a sixth-round pick.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – MIA)
- Yahoo ADP – 125.9 | WR46
Beckham was the WR63 in 2023, averaging 6.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game with the Baltimore Ravens despite playing in an inexperienced and limited wide receiver unit. Unfortunately, things won’t be better for him in Miami. The Dolphins have an elite pair of wide receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Furthermore, Miami had the most rushing touchdowns last season (27). Beckham will have little fantasy value in 2024. I have no interest in drafting the veteran, let alone ahead of high-upside receivers like Keon Coleman and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
- Yahoo ADP – 110.9 | TE11
While Goedert remains a solid starting-caliber NFL tight end, fantasy players should avoid drafting him as their TE1. He averaged 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, his lowest average since his rookie season. Furthermore, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores. The Eagles’ passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving the tight end fighting for targets. Moreover, his role on offense will decline with Saquon Barkley in town.
More Values & Overvalued Players By Commissioner Site
- ESPN ADP
- Fantrax ADP
- Values (July)
- Overvalued (July)
- FFPC ADP
- Values (July)
- Overvalued (July)
- NFFC ADP
- Values (July)
- Overvalued (July)
- MFL ADP
- Real Time Sports ADP
- Yahoo ADP
- Sleeper ADP
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
