The Scott Fish Bowl is underway, meaning the 2024 fantasy football season is approaching. Therefore, now is the time to start preparing for your redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy players winning their redraft league every year. Yet, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at players that are overpriced draft values based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues. Here are overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on Sleeper.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Sleeper Leagues
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
- Sleeper ADP – 36.8 | QB3
While he won his second MVP award last season, Jackson wasn’t the top fantasy quarterback. The superstar was the QB4, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Jackson had some massive spike weeks but also had some awful fantasy performances. He scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in nearly a third of the games. Furthermore, Jackson posted the lowest rushing yards per game average of his career as a starter (51.3). His rushing average will likely be even lower in 2024 with the addition of Derrick Henry this offseason.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
- Sleeper ADP – 26.5 | RB11
Jacobs signed a massive four-year deal with the Packers in free agency, suggesting he will be the team’s featured running back in 2024. However, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense. That’s not surprising, given how much Jacobs regressed from a career year in 2022 to last year, seeing his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% (per Fantasy Points Data).
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
- Sleeper ADP – 60.3 | RB18
The veteran was outstanding during the playoffs, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game against two talented defenses. However, Jones missed six games and left others early because of injuries. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). I would rather draft David Montgomery with a later ADP over Jones.
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
- Sleeper ADP – 31.5 | WR17
I won’t draft Diggs for two reasons in 2024. One, the veteran wide receiver has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Two, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston. His days as a must-start fantasy receiver are over, making him massively overrated at his current ADP.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
- Sleeper ADP – 71.3 | WR35
Unfortunately, Minnesota will have a new Week 1 starting quarterback for the first time since 2018. Addison was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%). Furthermore, seven of his 10 receiving scores came in the eight games with Kirk Cousins under center. Addison was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. He is on my do-not-draft list this year after being a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent receiver as a rookie.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
- Sleeper ADP – 86.9 | TE10
While Njoku averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, the veteran was quarterback-dependent. He was TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Njoku was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival adds significant target competition for the veteran tight end. Instead of drafting Njoku, fantasy players should target Jake Ferguson with a similar draft price.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
