Tom Strachan | Sat, Jul 13th 2024, 7:11am EDT

7 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: FFPC Leagues (2024)

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering many options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is the FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship), which caters to higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands. Their most popular contest is the FantasyPros Championship, a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner. FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception.

The FantasyPros Championship (FFPC) is the biggest redraft contest competition out there, with a top prize of $1,000,000. Drafts are open right now, including both slow and fast options, and you can save $25 off the price of your first entry with promo code “FANTASYPROS.”

Below are the most obviously overvalued fantasy football players to avoid drafting on FFPC leagues in July.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: 12.6

The positives for Saquon Barkley are that he’s now in the most competent offense of his career and will be playing behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with, even if it’s lacking Jason Kelce’s presence. The negatives, though, and there are several of them, are that Barkley’s route to fantasy gold seems somewhat blocked by the ‘Brotherly Shove’ QB-sneak still being allowed, something that led to Jalen Hurts leading the league in touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line last year with 13.

The Eagles have an undefendable play, so why give Barkley goal-line touches for the sake of it? Add to this that the Eagles targeted the running back position at the 12th-lowest rate in the league and it’s quite hard to imagine how Barkley strives and pays off his first-round average draft position (ADP).

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) | ADP: 33.8

When Josh Jacobs first landed with the Packers it felt like a match made in heaven with a young ascending offense wanting to get younger at the position, but also willing to give out a reasonable-sized contract to the former Raiders back. Unfortunately, the more you consider it the more it seems obvious Jacobs will fail to get the workload he needs to pay off his current ADP.

Matt LaFleur has historically preferred a two-running-back system, using AJ Dillon throughout his time in Green Bay to spell Aaron Jones, despite Jones being hands down the better back. LaFleur’s history with this tactic dates back to Tennessee when he was a coordinator and kept Derrick Henry off the field in favor of Dion Lewis. The reports around Green Bay suggest MarShawn Lloyd will be a big part of the rotation and Jacobs historically hasn’t been efficient enough to make up for anything but a workhorse role.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: 51.2

With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs have made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who have far bigger weekly upsides due to their rushing floor.

Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of those 48, 64% finished as a top-12 quarterback in points per game with 46% finishing inside the top 12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | ADP: 89.3

On Underdog and DraftKings it’s not uncommon to see T.J. Hockenson fall into the 150-pick range of drafts, which still feels a tad high for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with a new rookie quarterback.

By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be, at best, the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Yes, the tight end-premium scoring makes the position more valuable, but parting with a top-100 pick for a player who could give you nothing for half a season feels like a steep price to pay. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his ADP gets to around pick 150, which it likely will as we get to training camp when he lands on the physically unable to perform list (PUP).

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) | ADP: 106.0

Cleveland hasn’t particularly made it sound like they’re expecting Nick Chubb to come back strong in 2024 after bringing in the more than capable D’Onta Foreman to share the expected workload with Jerome Ford, who was steady last year but far from an every-down type of player. Chubb underwent multiple surgeries to deal with an ACL injury that also included other ligament damage. Last year Breece Hall showed us younger running backs coming off a clean ACL tear can be productive straightaway. However, when other ligaments are involved, like with J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams and Kyler Murray, then typically it’s a trickier recovery ahead. Not to mention Chubb is turning 29 this year and never had the pass-catching upside to bulk his stats.

If Chubb is unable to break away and unable to command a large volume, it’s tough to imagine him regaining his every-down role. Not to mention Chubb is only back with the Browns because he agreed to a sizable pay cut. Chubb is by far one of the most fun running backs in the league, but expecting him to make a big difference in 2024 might be a little too hopeful. Taking him in this range means passing on a lot of healthy and interesting backs.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) | ADP: 128.8

For a player who was expected to do great things coming out of college, J.K. Dobbins has sadly played only nine games since his rookie season (2020), rushing for 542 yards on 100 attempts and dealing with a multi-ligament knee injury that required multiple surgeries and then a torn Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

The Chargers have a highly ambiguous backfield with Dobbins, Gus Edwards and later-round rookie Kimani Vidal, but the opportunities are likely to be limited for Dobbins with him again teaming up with Greg Roman. Dobbins was unhappy with Roman due to him being subbed out at times for Edwards in Baltimore. Dobbins’ contract is so minimal it’ll be no surprise if he gets cut before the season starts, despite the Chargers’ lack of options.

Ben Sinnott (TE – WAS) | ADP: 163.4

Rookie tight ends had a banner year in 2023 with Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft all having their moments, but it can’t be forgotten that this is the exception to the mean. Looking back before the 2023 season, 384 tight ends have played in the NFL and recorded a stat of some form during their rookie season. Of those 384, only two have scored 10+ fantasy points in their rookie seasons (Dominique Byrd & Jordan Reed).

Filtering things slightly to adjust for only the players who were drafted, we get a list of 255 tight ends. Within this amount, 43.5% recorded an average of fewer than 1.99 points per game and only 12.1% scored over six half-PPR points per game. That’s the bar we have to set for rookie tight ends, and it looks pretty grim when we consider 19 different tight ends scored over six half-PPR points per game in 2023.

Coincidentally, Sinnott is being drafted as the TE19 at pick 162 right now. Sinnott is a good player, but a better blocker than a pass-catcher and will be competing with Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and fellow rookie Luke McCaffrey for touches. Sinnott was a popular name early in draft season, but now it seems his upside will be limited.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

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