Evan Tarracciano | Sun, Jul 28th 2024, 6:01am EDT

5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: ESPN Leagues (2024)

One of the most frequent comments I receive when I tell friends that I work at FantasyPros is, “I love that site! I use their rankings all of the time during my draft research!”. The same goes with me.

Before I even knew about FantasyPros ECR, I had a similar system. Each year before my league drafts, I would pick up several magazines and create composite rankings based on the average of experts I trusted. I’m sure that I wasn’t alone in that endeavor. I valued the opinions of several analysts and tried not to place an emphasis solely on one or two. Some authors were more open to taking chances on rookie players or bounce-back candidates, while others favored veteran leadership or consistency. But it all averaged out in the end.

Our ECR is comprised of over 70 experts (with nearly 120 available, should one so choose) and gives managers (both new and experienced) information on how they could modify and view their own rankings compared to others. ECR complements our vast array of articles, video content, podcasts, and more. By no means is it the be-all and end-all, but I’d endorse it as a vital tool for folks to check out.

What really becomes interesting is comparing our ECR to particular hosts and providers and seeing where the differences in opinion lie. During the 2024 draft season, I’ve been keeping a close eye on one of the “Big 3” with ESPN and pointing out players who are dramatically higher or lower in comparison, pointing out values or pitfalls.

With July quickly coming to a close and training camps beginning to get underway, here are a few players that are currently (in my humble opinion) overvalued on ESPN, compared to both my own rankings and ECR.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: ESPN Leagues

Quarterbacks

None

Yes, you read that correctly. None.

As mentioned in my June and July values articles, ESPN consistently ranks quarterbacks several rounds behind ECR, clearly emphasizing running backs and wide receivers instead. When perusing their most recent update, I couldn’t find a single relevant QB1/QB2 option that was ranked earlier in ESPN, and the divide became more egregious the further down I went.

Some notable examples within the QB2 (QB13-25 territory) area that are worth pointing out?

Jared Goff (DET) ECR – 100^th Overall, ESPN – 208^th Overall
Baker Mayfield (TB) ECR – 138^th Overall, ESPN – 211^th Overall
Geno Smith (SEA) ECR – 147^th Overall, ESPN – 227^th Overall

Goff, Mayfield, and Smith aren’t in the same realm as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson. I fully understand that. But nearly doubling their placement is extreme. Wait on this position if you use ESPN.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon (HOU) ECR – 43^rd Overall, ESPN – 24^th Overall
Alvin Kamara (NO) ECR – 53^rd Overall, ESPN – 34^th Overall

The rankings discrepancies of Mixon and Kamara were the most obvious, but nearly all low-end RB1s and mid-range RB2s were consistently ranked several slots ahead of ECR, to the detriment of quarterbacks and tight ends falling instead. This position will cause inexperienced managers to reach and adaptable ones to pivot.

In Mixon’s case, I can see room for optimism, but I have a hard time spending a second-round pick to acquire him. He continues to be incredibly inefficient and volume-based, inflating his numbers with check-downs in the passing game and short-yardage scores. Mixon finished as the RB7 in half-point PPR formats in 2023, compiling over 1,400 yards from scrimmage on 309 total touches. As a member of the Houston Texans, it is difficult to envision Mixon catching another 50 passes in the presence of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Bigsby at C.J. Stroud‘s disposal. He will continue to dominate backfield touches but will need to generate more explosive plays to finish as a low-end RB1.

I view Kamara as a more extreme Joe Mixon – he has struggled to generate yards with touches out of the backfield (just a 3.8 YPC over the last three seasons) and instead heavily relies upon receptions to boost his value. In just 13 games last year, Kamara caught 75 receptions on 86 targets, as New Orleans constantly played catchup in the second half. I’d expect similar usage this year, and I am undaunted by the presence of Kendre Miller, like others. Miller might have youth on his side, but he has a difficult time staying healthy, something which head coach Dennis Allen is quick to point out. His recent “hard to make the team when you’re in the training room all of the time” jab was a clear shot across the bow. In PPR leagues, I’m fine with drafting Kamara as an RB2, but 34^th overall is a rich price to pay.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley (TEN) ECR – 74^th Overall, ESPN – 54^th Overall
Rashee Rice (KC) ECR – 81^st Overall, ESPN – 78^th Overall

ESPN is banking on the money talking in Tennessee, pegging Ridley ahead of players like Tank Dell, Tee Higgins, or George Pickens (all of whom ECR has placed ahead). Ridley was handed a massive contract by the Titans to start opposite DeAndre Hopkins and will be entering a more pass-centric offense under new head coach Brian Callahan. An improved offensive line will afford quarterback Will Levis additional time to take chances downfield, an area where Ridley thrives. FantasyPros initial projections for 2024 have Ridley outpacing his 2023 totals (168 to 154), so the optimism is certainly shared. If Levis can clean up his footwork and accuracy from last year, Ridley could find himself as a low-end WR2.

I included Rice in this month’s article, not because of any significant disparity between the two rankings – there is only a difference of three spots between the two. Instead, I wanted to give kudos to ESPN for not buying into the idea of an imminent suspension that others fear. Although Rice will face discipline from the league at some point following his well-documented offseason transgressions, the timetable is currently unknown. The league has a long-standing policy of not getting in the way of any proceedings and allows everything to play out in the court system first. All indications are that Kansas City is unaware of any immediate rulings being made, and ownership (along with head coach Andy Reid) have said that they know nothing about how things will play out. Should Rice actually play the entirety of this season, he should be ranked much higher.

Tight Ends

George Kittle (SF) ECR – 77^th Overall, ESPN – 69^th Overall

I love watching George Kittle play football, and I wanted to get that off of my chest before we dove into things. His enthusiasm is infectious, he is a superb blocker, and every time that he has the ball in his hands, he is looking to run through people to reach the end zone. With all of that said, my projections this season (along with those on our site) find a true breakout difficult to envision. Kittle is at the mercy of playing on a team with a bevy of stars, causing his targets per game to hover around six. His ability to rack up YAC is nearly unparalleled at the position, but due to inconsistent usage and the need for him to maintain a high YPC for each target, he is difficult to trust. From a pure talent perspective, I view him as an equal to Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce – it is a shame that San Francisco doesn’t feature him more each week.

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