Overrated Players: Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs

As we gear up for the 2024 NFL season, identifying overrated players can make the difference between winning and losing in your fantasy football league. Our esteemed FantasyPros analysts-Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Ryan Wormeli-have combed through each NFL roster to spotlight the most overrated players. These are the guys who are poised to underperform and provide a low return on investment. This comprehensive list of potential busts will give you the edge you need to dominate your league.

Overrated NFL Players in 2024

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

Nico Collins was uber-efficient last year, averaging 16.2 yards per catch last season, 11.9 yards per target and 3.11 yards per route run. It will be hard to replicate such freaky efficiency, and now Collins faces stiff target competition. He averaged 7.3 targets per game last season, and that was with Tank Dell missing six of the 15 games Collins played. Dell is back, and the Texans have added Stefon Diggs, who averaged 9.8 targets a game during his four years in Buffalo. A second-round ADP is way too rich for Collins, who’s staring regression in the face and might not be the No. 1 receiver on his own team. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)

The assumption in rankings currently is that Christian Kirk will lead the team in receiving categories but that Brian Thomas Jr. shouldn’t be far behind him and that Thomas Jr. is far superior to Gabriel Davis. I think we’re missing the mark with both of these thoughts. In Weeks 1-12 last season, Kirk ranked 17th in yards per route run and 25th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). He should be considered the clear WR1 for Jacksonville. Davis, on the other hand, has been one of the best deep threats in the league and could continue to be in Jacksonville. Last year was a down campaign, but in 2022, he was 31st in receiving yards per game and 30th in yards per route run when seeing targets 20 yards or further downfield. Thomas Jr. has a more limited route tree than many like to discuss, and his transition to the NFL might not occur as seamlessly as his believers might hope. – DBro

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 11.8 carries and 2.9 catches per game last season from the time backfield mate David Montgomery returned from a rib injury in Week 10 through the playoffs. That’s a 12-game sample, and considering that Gibbs and Montgomery will probably have similar roles this year, it’s hard to see Gibbs getting a major volume boost. Gibbs is wildly talented, but he has a first-round ADP, and I’m not drafting a timeshare RB in the first round. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

I disagree with my colleague Derek Brown on whether Josh Jacobs is good. I think Jacobs is very good. DBro is much less certain about that in light of Jacobs’ lackluster 2023 efficiency metrics. What’s indisputable is that Packers head coach and play-caller Matt LaFleur has a history of dividing RB touches. In recent years, A.J. Dillon has routinely gotten double-digit carries for the Packers, even in games where Aaron Jones has been healthy, and it’s pretty obvious that Jones is far better than Dillon. When LaFleur was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2018, 24-year-old Derrick Henry had 215 carries in 16 games, and Dion Lewis had 155 carries. Don’t expect to see Jacobs getting the sort of workload that would justify his price. — Pat Fitzmaurice

NFL Nico Collins Tank Dell Stefon Diggs Brian Thomas Jr. Christian Kirk Jahmyr Gibbs David Montgomery Josh Jacobs A.J. Dillon Aaron Jones Derrick Henry