As we gear up for the 2024 NFL season, identifying overvalued players can make the difference between winning and losing in your fantasy football league. Our esteemed FantasyPros analysts-Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Ryan Wormeli-have combed through each NFL roster to spotlight the most overrated player from every team. These are the guys who are poised to underperform and provide a low return on investment. This comprehensive list of potential busts will give you the edge you need to dominate your league.

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Overrated Fantasy Football Players from Each Team

AFC East

Keon Coleman (WR – BUF)

Keon Coleman’s WR51 ranking in ECR isn’t pricey. My biggest objection is that he’s the highest-ranked Bills wide receiver. Yes, we’re splitting hairs here, but the fact remains that Coleman shouldn’t be the first Buffalo Bills wide receiver drafted this year. There’s nothing in Coleman’s profile to suggest that he will enter the NFL and hit the ground running after ranking 79th or lower in his final two seasons of college in yards per route run, receiving grade, and yards after the catch per reception (per PFF). Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel should be held in higher regard. – DBro

Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)

Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. He won’t provide any rushing value. The Jets’ defense is among the best in the league, so Rodgers probably won’t be involved in many high-scoring shootouts. And when Rodgers had the current Jets offensive coordinator as his play-caller in Green Bay, the Packers perennially had one of the slowest-paced offenses in the league. It’s not as if Rodgers is being drafted early, but I would contend that he shouldn’t even be a draft target in superflex leagues. — Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC North

Zack Moss (RB – CIN)

Zack Moss was terrific for the Colts early last season when Jonathan Taylor was on IR, rushing for 280 yards and a touchdown in three games when Taylor was on the shelf, then rushing for 165 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Titans when the Colts used Taylor lightly in his first game back. Moss benefitted from playing with QB Anthony Richardson in those games. Mobile QBs tend to spike the rushing efficiency of the RBs they play with, and that seemed to be the case last year with Moss, who averaged 3.7 yards per carry from Week 6 on after Richardson had gone in IR. Moss wasn’t able to get any real traction during his two-and-a-half seasons in Buffalo, and he’s never been much of a factor as a pass catcher. Moss may very well be the second-best RB in Cincinnati behind Chase Brown, who was a workhorse during his college career at Illinois and could become one again if the Bengals deem him better than Moss. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

Najee Harris was RB20 in half-point PPR scoring last year, so an ADP of RB20 seems perfectly reasonable, right? Well, maybe not. Najee was RB31 in half-point PPR scoring through Week 15, then finished with a strong three-game stretch to salvage his season-long numbers. Najee scored four of his eight TDs in those last three games of the regular season, and he had a season-high 133 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in Week 18 against the Ravens, who had their playoff spot locked in and were resting a bunch of starters. Najee was terrific as a rookie in 2021 because he was used as a workhorse, but he’s now sharing work with Jaylen Warren, who might be the better back. Fade Najee at his current cost. — Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC South

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

Nico Collins was uber-efficient last year, averaging 16.2 yards per catch last season, 11.9 yards per target and 3.11 yards per route run. It will be hard to replicate such freaky efficiency, and now Collins faces stiff target competition. He averaged 7.3 targets per game last season, and that was with Tank Dell missing six of the 15 games Collins played. Dell is back, and the Texans have added Stefon Diggs, who averaged 9.8 targets a game during his four years in Buffalo. A second-round ADP is way too rich for Collins, who’s staring regression in the face and might not be the No. 1 receiver on his own team. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)

The assumption in rankings currently is that Christian Kirk will lead the team in receiving categories but that Brian Thomas Jr. shouldn’t be far behind him and that Thomas Jr. is far superior to Gabriel Davis. I think we’re missing the mark with both of these thoughts. In Weeks 1-12 last season, Kirk ranked 17th in yards per route run and 25th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). He should be considered the clear WR1 for Jacksonville. Davis, on the other hand, has been one of the best deep threats in the league and could continue to be in Jacksonville. Last year was a down campaign, but in 2022, he was 31st in receiving yards per game and 30th in yards per route run when seeing targets 20 yards or further downfield. Thomas Jr. has a more limited route tree than many like to discuss, and his transition to the NFL might not occur as seamlessly as his believers might hope. – DBro

AFC West

Hollywood Brown (WR – KC)

I don’t have a ton of faith in Hollywood Brown at this stage of his career. Brown has seen his yards per route run fall in each of the last four seasons. Last season, among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 62nd in yards per route run and 48th in first downs per route run. With Xavier Worthy getting healthier by the day and Rashee Rice‘s suspension still a big question mark to hit in 2024, Brown could easily be the fourth option in this passing attack. – DBro

Zamir White (RB – LV)

It seems like bad process to draft Zamir White based on the question, “Who else is going to get carries for the Raiders?” OK, maybe there’s not a great deal of excitement over Raiders newcomer Alexander Mattison or sixth-round draft pick Dylan Laube. I’m nevertheless reluctant to draft White based on four good games at the end of last season. White has never been much of a pass catcher, and he was never asked to handle an especially big rushing load during his three seasons at the University of Georgia. Drafting White as an RB2 is a leap of faith I’m not ready to make. — Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC East

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)

Surprisingly, “America’s Team” might not have a truly overrated fantasy asset. WR CeeDee Lamb is a bona fide star, and TE Jake Ferguson is useful and affordable. Otherwise, the RBs, WRs and TEs in Dallas are dirt-cheap. That leaves Dak Prescott, who seems reasonably priced to me at QB8. There’s a case to be made that he’s slightly risky at that price since (a) he doesn’t run much anymore, (b) he’ll be 31 this season, and (c) he’s entering the final year of his deal and could potentially hold out. But considering that Dak was QB3 in fantasy scoring last year and has never finished outside of QB1 range when playing a full season, I have no real issue with his price. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)

It’s hard to understand why there’s still enthusiasm for Wan’Dale Robinson in some corners of the fantasy community. He hasn’t commanded a lot of targets. His career efficiency numbers are poor — 9.1 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target — and he’s missed 13 games in his first two seasons. — Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC North

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 11.8 carries and 2.9 catches per game last season from the time backfield mate David Montgomery returned from a rib injury in Week 10 through the playoffs. That’s a 12-game sample, and considering that Gibbs and Montgomery will probably have similar roles this year, it’s hard to see Gibbs getting a major volume boost. Gibbs is wildly talented, but he has a first-round ADP, and I’m not drafting a timeshare RB in the first round. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

I disagree with my colleague Derek Brown on whether Josh Jacobs is good. I think Jacobs is very good. DBro is much less certain about that in light of Jacobs’ lackluster 2023 efficiency metrics. What’s indisputable is that Packers head coach and play-caller Matt LaFleur has a history of dividing RB touches. In recent years, A.J. Dillon has routinely gotten double-digit carries for the Packers, even in games where Aaron Jones has been healthy, and it’s pretty obvious that Jones is far better than Dillon. When LaFleur was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2018, 24-year-old Derrick Henry had 215 carries in 16 games, and Dion Lewis had 155 carries. Don’t expect to see Jacobs getting the sort of workload that would justify his price. — Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC South

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

Even if we try and dismiss any questions about the Saints’ offensive line, I have bigger concerns with Alvin Kamara. His once prolific tackle-breaking juice has seemingly dried up. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 48th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Snaps and volume fueled him. If Kendre Miller is healthy and ready to go this year, Kamara could see a dramatic difference in his role in 2024. – DBro

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

Rachaad White and Kamara are like the Spider-Man GIF. White’s rocket fuel last year was gobs and gobs of volume, as he ranked fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. The big problem is that he was incredibly inefficient, with that volume sitting at 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Bucky Iriving can work his way into a consistent role in the weekly gameplan, White’s fantasy value could take a big hit this year. – DBro

NFC West

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

Fantasy managers continued to chase the dragon with former Browns WR Josh Gordon YEARS after his 1,600-yard campaign despite multiple suspensions and very few signs that the magic was coming back. I don’t expect fantasy managers to go cold turkey on Cooper Kupp even though his 145-catch, 1,947 season in 2021 is starting to look pretty small in the rearview mirror. Kupp is entering his age-31 season and has battled myriad injuries over the last two years. Rams WR Puka Nacua was a revelation as a rookie, so Kupp is no longer the clear No. 1 receiver on his team and might be the No. 2. His efficiency numbers over the last two years have been average. Kupp’s top-60 overall ADP seems like a combination of wishcasting and nostalgia. — Pat Fitzmaurice

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

Brandon Aiyuk finished WR14 in half-point PPR scoring last season, and he’s being drafted as if he’ll repeat that high-end WR2 season. There’s little chance Aiyuk will repeat his top-shelf 2023 efficiency. Among receivers with at least 50 targets last year, Aiyuk ranked No. 1 in yards per target, No. 2 in yards per catch, and No. 6 in yards per route run. But Aiyuk ranked 30th among WRs in targets with 105, and it’s hard to see a volume uptick when he’s sharing targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Aiyuk is a terrific player, but he’s far too expensive in 2024 fantasy drafts. — Pat Fitzmaurice

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