The following players have been receiving plenty of media attention as of late. These are players who, despite the encouraging signs in training camp, should not see an increase in perceived value.
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NFL Training Camp Buzz: Don’t Believe the Hype
As training camp ramps up across the NFL, it’s a good opportunity to remind ourselves of the potential dangers that come with it. Every year, some players gain traction as a result of training camp hype. Given our hunger for the upcoming fantasy football season, it’s easy to overreact to speculation surfacing this time of year. Whether it’s an impressive highlight or an encouraging beat report, the information that comes from training camp should never supersede the preparation and research conducted months prior.
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)
Following a productive college career and a promising rookie year, Greg Dulcich seemed primed to be a fantasy-viable option for years to come. However, he struggled during his sophomore season and had seemingly become an afterthought amongst the fantasy football community. Positive training camp reports have caused speculation about a potential resurgence in Dulcich’s third year:
Greg Dulcich was one of THE stories of the first day of Broncos camp… in a great way.
He was fast, explosive, healthy and the receiving threat the team hopes he can be.
Dulcich had a 15-yard catch from Bo Nix in 7on7 then exploded downfield after a catch from Stidham in team.
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) July 24, 2024
At any rate, I struggle to see a world where Dulcich is a consistent focal point of this Denver offense. Coming off a career-best season which saw Courtland Sutton amass 10 receiving touchdowns, he’ll remain the WR1. Given draft capital and financial investment, Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds are both likely to see more targets than Dulcich as well.
Incoming rookie QB Bo Nix is known for his proficiency on throws close to the line of scrimmage. In his final season at Oregon, he earned a 92.7 passing grade in a well-catered system that limited his average depth of target (aDOT) to 6.9 yards (per Pro Football Focus). This bodes well for his relationship with Sean Payton, who’s notorious for his use of RBs in the passing game. The likes of Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams will often be used as receivers out of the backfield. With this in mind, Dulcich isn’t likely to inherit many looks in the short passing game either. Since 2016, only one TE has tallied more than 700 yards in Payton’s system: Jared Cook in 2019.
Across his injury-riddled NFL career, Dulcich has yet to consistently display the play-making ability that made him a third-round draft selection in 2022. His career yards after catch per reception of 4.2 yards leave much to be desired. He’s only managed to force three missed tackles since joining the league, per PFF.
All things considered, Dulcich will be a secondary option in what figures to be one of the league’s worst offenses in 2024. Touchdowns will be hard to come by with a rookie signal-caller and an underwhelming group of pass-catchers. At this juncture, it may be time to move on from the high hopes fantasy managers had for Dulcich in years past.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Despite three years of wildly disappointing production from the former first-round receiver, Rashod Bateman is once again the subject of early praise in Baltimore training camp.
Ravens HC John Harbaugh with HIGH PRAISE for WR Rashod Bateman:
“He’s expected to be a top receiver in the league for us. That’s what we’re planning on.”
(@CoachspeakIndex )
pic.twitter.com/7M8qOMu8uR— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 22, 2024
Based on Bateman’s track record, it’s safe to classify Harbaugh’s comments as nothing more than insignificant coachspeak. This is not actionable information for fantasy managers.
While it remains true that certain players take longer to develop than others, it’d be unwise to predict a fourth-year breakout for Bateman. He’s severely struggled to show flashes of the talent he displayed in college. He’s yet to surpass 515 receiving yards in any given season. What’s more, 2023 was Bateman’s worst season yet. Among 80 WRs that earned at least 50 targets in 2023, he ranked 71st in receiving grade, 68th in yards per route run and 78th in yards after catch per reception per PFF. Simply put, these numbers don’t bode well for Bateman’s hopes for a breakout 2024 season.
To make matters worse, Bateman is firmly behind the likes of Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers in the pecking order for targets. Andrews has been a pillar of consistency and continues to be Lamar Jackson‘s favorite target in this offense. During his injury-riddled 2023 season, Andrews earned a PFF receiving grade of 80.7; sixth best among all tight ends. On the other hand, Flowers showed great flashes of athleticism and play-making ability during his rookie season. According to PFF, he led all rookie receivers in missed tackles forced and accumulated an impressive 396 yards after the catch.
Beyond these two sure-fire starters, Bateman is presumed to inherit the primary field-stretching role in this offense. Still, the off-season addition of rookie Devontez Walker adds some ambiguity regarding this position. Per PFF, Walker had an aDOT of 16.9 yards across a productive three-year career at UNC. It’s also important to recall that veteran Nelson Agholor figures to occupy a sizeable role in this offense as well. The latter has made several downfield plays for the Ravens during his tenure in Baltimore.
At this point in his career, Bateman has proved to be an intriguing receiver talent who lacks true game-breaking ability. In 2024, he’ll likely be part of the most crowded pass-catching corps he’s dealt with in his career. For this reason, the training camp buzz should not be taken too seriously by fantasy managers.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB)
The hype surrounding the Packers offense as a whole is very sound. This team boasts many exciting weapons surrounding quarterback Jordan Love. The latter proved he is a bonafide franchise quarterback towards the late stages of the 2023 season.
Wicks seems to be the primary benefactor of the optimism surrounding the Packers. The buzz regarding the sophomore wide receiver has trickled over into the fantasy football world, where he’s flown up draft boards and been the topic of countless “sleeper” discussions.
Admittedly, Wicks was extremely efficient in 2023. According to PFF, he led the Green Bay receiver room in yards after catch per reception and trailed only Christian Watson in yards per reception. He made several crucial plays during the team’s unlikely playoff run. Love clearly has an affinity for the former Virginia Cavalier.
Packers’ QB Jordan Love on WR Dontayvion Wicks:
"I think Dontayvion is going to have a monster year. He was able to do a lot of phenomenal things last year. I think the sky is the limit for him."
— NFL Talk (@NFL_Talk_Sports) July 17, 2024
My skepticism surrounding Wicks’ fantasy appeal has nothing to do with the player’s abilities on the field. There are simply too many mouths to feed in this offense and as a result, Wicks’ path to consistent volume is extremely murky. Christian Watson is the established alpha receiver in this unit. Beyond him, there are a wide variety of players who will all be vying for touches. Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are all intriguing players who will see work in head coach Matt Lafleur’s system.
Based on 2023 usage, Wicks finds himself behind the aforementioned players on the depth chart. Among this group of pass-catchers, Wicks had only the fifth-most snaps on passing downs. With this in mind, he’s entirely dependent on injury to see consistent playing time. The training camp buzz should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.
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