As fantasy managers, we often fall into the trap of drafting a player solely based on projected volume. Every year, certain players’ path to volume supersedes their subpar abilities on the field. However, it’s important to remember that the NFL is wildly unpredictable on a year-to-year basis. Players will inevitably emerge from the depths of rosters and show unexpected promise. For this reason, fantasy managers should look beyond the early-season volume projections. It’s also crucial to invest in players whose talent is considerably better than their competitors on their respective depth charts. This will ensure that they’ll feature heavily in their offense throughout the entire season.
Coming off a productive rookie season, the fantasy football landscape expected RB Dameon Pierce to be the Texans’ unquestioned starter in 2023. Many wrote off the off-season signing of Devin Singletary as a mere depth addition. However, the latter earned the starting role by Week 10. From that point onwards, Singletary earned 17.1 carries per game and produced as the RB9 in half-PPR formats. Pierce’s disappointing campaign is a cautionary tale, reminding us to pay close attention to depth charts across the NFL. The arrival of a well-respected veteran RB meant that Pierce’s role was much less secure than initially thought.
The following list contains players who, while currently penciled in as the starter, will need to earn every touch they receive in 2024. Given their shaky starter status, they may not be worth selecting during fantasy football draft season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football: NFL Starters with Shaky Job Security
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Javonte Williams has operated as the Broncos’ starting RB for a few seasons now. His rookie season suggested that he might be the future at the position in Denver. In 2021, he earned a 76.0 rushing grade and averaged 3.42 yards after contact per attempt according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
However, he hasn’t been able to return to his previous level of efficiency and production since the gruesome ACL injury he suffered in 2023. What was once a promising career took a downturn last year. In 2023, his numbers plummeted to a rushing grade of 64.9 and 2.71 yards after contact per carry. Needless to say, he failed to impress head coach Sean Payton during his first season in charge. Williams’ poor performances have reportedly put him on the roster bubble heading into training camp.
REPORT: Former #Broncos standout running back Javonte Williams appears to be on the roster bubble, and could even be RELEASED before the season.
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Williams struggled last season coming off an ACL tear, the former 2nd round pick has shown his talent when healthy. pic.twitter.com/FhWEbEbMfR
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) June 14, 2024
Despite having several glaring holes across the roster, the Broncos addressed the RB position heavily during the off-season. They spent fifth-round draft capital on Audric Estime and signed Blake Watson as an undrafted free agent. Estime was elite during his final season at Notre Dame. He earned the highest PFF run grade of all FBS RBs as he accumulated 1341 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. On the other hand, Blake Watson also had a very productive collegiate career. Across five seasons, he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and earned a PFF elusive rating of 109.6.
Williams’ biggest threat to his starting job is Jaleel McLaughlin. Sean Payton has expressed his affinity for McLaughlin many times. He seems to be a prime candidate to inherit the Alvin Kamara role in Payton’s system. McLaughlin showed he can be a key contributor to both facets of the offense. Per PFF, he averaged 3.38 yards after contact per carry on the ground and 1.63 yards per route run through the air.
The bottom line is that Payton has no affiliation to Javonte Williams, who was drafted before Payton’s appointment. This RB depth chart contains several players with intriguing skill sets. Based on recent performance, Williams’ hold on the starting job is getting weaker and weaker.
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
In fantasy football, a good rule of thumb is to “follow the money.” In other words, the more money a team invests in a player is typically a good indication of the role they expect him to have. The Titans signed Tony Pollard to a three-year contract worth $21.75 million in free agency. The team clearly expects the former Cowboy to operate as the starter.
That being said, does Tony Pollard have what it takes to be the full-time starter? Before the 2023 season, Pollard had never seen more than 200 carries. Playing a complementary role to Ezekiel Elliot, Pollard gained a reputation for being an incredibly efficient playmaker. During this time, he never finished a season with a breakaway percentage below 31% or yards after contact per carry below 3.59 (PFF).
In 2024, Dallas committed to Pollard as the unquestioned starter and he failed to deliver on this opportunity. Per PFF, he had career lows in elusive rating and yards after contact per carry. Given his small frame, it’s fair to question whether Pollard can withstand a workhorse role and maintain efficiency while doing so.
What’s more, Tyjae Spears has the talent to usurp Pollard as the starter in this offense. According to PFF’s metrics, Spears outperformed his running mate in both the ground game and the passing game in 2023. As a runner, he averaged more yards after contact per carry and had a higher elusive rating. As a receiver, he had more yards after catch per reception and more yards per route run. He emerged as a key member of this Titans offense and produced many explosive plays.
95 seconds of Tyjae Spears making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/qw26A2eyG1
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 15, 2024
This team has seen what Spears is capable of. If Pollard’s struggles translate into 2024, he may lose his starting role sooner rather than later.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
At this juncture, the Giants are likely regretting having given Daniel Jones a four-year contract worth $160 million contract back in 2022. The former Duke standout has failed to deliver on the promise that made him the sixth overall pick in 2019.
Jones had a particularly poor 2023 season. His 54.4 PFF passing grade and 70.5 NFL passer rating were both career lows. Despite being only 27 years old, his production and efficiency metrics are declining at an alarming rate. So much so, that the Giants have already considered moving on from him this off-season. As seen in the Hard Knocks documentary, the team was heavily linked to a trade-up with the Patriots to select QB Drake Maye.
The Giants also knew Drake Maye is that dude. pic.twitter.com/YPqbERHoyb
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) July 10, 2024
Much of Jones’ struggles thus far have been attributed to two main causes: his lack of weapons and the porous offensive line unit. To be fair, the Giants haven’t done their franchise QB many favors in that respect. Throughout his five years in the NFL, Jones’ most consistent pass-catcher has been Darius Slayton. The latter has never surpassed 800 receiving yards in any given season.
However, the Giants have recently made considerable attempts at solving these issues. They invested high draft capital in the likes of Evan Neal, Andrew Thomas and John Michael Schmitz on the offensive line. They also selected superstar WR Malik Nabers 6th overall in the 2024 NFL draft. In light of this, Jones is starting to run out of excuses. If his struggles continue at the start of the 2024 season, the Giants may opt to give Drew Lock a shot at being the signal-caller.
Lock performed admirably as Seattle’s backup QB in 2023. When Geno Smith went down to injury from Weeks 13 to 17, he compiled a 7:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He leads the Seahawks to a couple of key victories during that span. Lock was also a highly-touted QB in Jones’ draft class, and the Giants may take the opportunity to unlock any untapped potential in the former second-rounder.
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