Today’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has six games starting at 12:05 p.m. ET. Today’s suggested Underdog player props are also from the six-game afternoon slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Corbin Burnes (BAL) at MIA
Corbin Burnes is pitching at a Cy Young-caliber level this season. According to FanGraphs, in 20 starts spanning 124.2 innings this year, he has a 2.38 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 3.58 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 5.8 BB%, 23.4 K%, 29.0 CSW%, 116 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 108 Pitching+.
The 29-year-old righty is on a roll. Burnes has twirled four straight quality starts and 14 in his previous 15. Furthermore, Burnes has struck out at least five batters in 11 consecutive starts.
Burnes has a fantastic matchup and superb betting info today. The Marlins are tied for 27th in wRC+ (84) with a 23.2 K% versus righties and 27th in wRC+ (87) with a 21.3 K% at home this season. Miami was also 30th in wRC+ (79) with a 25.5 K% since June 1. Predictably, the Orioles are -270, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Taj Bradley (TB) at TOR
Taj Bradley has turned his electrifying stuff into eye-catching production in his second season in the majors. In 13 starts totaling 75.1 innings this year, Bradley has had a 2.63 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 3.34 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.6 BB%, 29.8 K%, 25.8 CSW%, 115 Stuff+, 97 Location+ and 103 Pitching+.
Moreover, Bradley is white-hot. He's spun back-to-back seven-inning scoreless gems, punching out 13 batters and allowing only 10 baserunners. Bradley has had three consecutive quality starts and allowed two runs or fewer in eight straight games.
Bradley's matchup today is roughly average. The Blue Jays are 14th in wRC+ (100) with a 20.2 K% versus righties and 19th in wRC+ (99) with a 21.3 K% at home. However, Toronto was 21st in wRC+ (95) with a 20.7 K% since June 1, so Bradley is catching them at the ideal time. Finally, the game is a pick 'em, with the Rays -110 and the game's total sitting at 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Orioles let me down last night, and I don't have any conviction about the projected starting lineup. Baltimore could rest some regulars since it's a day game after a night game. Still, it would be wise for them to jam many lefties into the lineup. Roddery Munoz has held 132 righties to a .276 wOBA this season. Yet, the 114 lefties who've faced him have torched him for a .445 wOBA. Thus, any of Baltimore's left-handed batters are exciting stacking selections today.
Core Studs
- In 455 plate appearances this year, Gunnar Henderson has hit 28 homers and stolen 14 bases with a .371 OBP, .285 ISO and 165 wRC+.
- Anthony Santander has hit 27 homers with a .306 OBP, .275 ISO and 131 wRC+ in 405 plate appearances this season.
- In 376 plate appearances against lefties since last year, Xander Bogaerts has hit nine homers with a .380 OBP, .165 ISO and 141 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- Colton Cowser is cheap exposure to Munoz's susceptibility against lefties. He's reached base every game since the MLB All-Star break. Cowser also stole two bases and tallied a homer during that five-game period.
- In Justyn-Henry Malloy's previous 61 plate appearances, he's hit five homers and stolen one base with a .393 OBP, .321 ISO and 183 wRC+.
- Daniel Schneemann has hit three homers with a .287 OBP, .207 ISO and 97 wRC+ in 94 plate appearances against righties in his rookie campaign.
Thursday's Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Scorcher 1.1x)
Henderson has hit 19 doubles, five triples and 28 homers with a .285 batting average, .569 slugging and .285 ISO this year. The left-handed-hitting infielder has done his best work against righties, and Munoz hasn't had answers for lefties. The 114 lefties who've faced Munoz this year have ripped six doubles and 10 homers with a .302 batting average and .677 slugging.
Anthony Santander: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Scorcher 1.2x)
Santander can take advantage of Munoz's inability to tame lefties. Moreover, the switch-hitting outfielder is hot. He's on a 10-game hitting streak and has hammered three doubles, one triple and seven homers in his past 92 plate appearances.
Patrick Corbin has coughed up a .327 BABIP and .291 batting average this year, resulting in 129 hits allowed in 111.0 innings. The veteran lefty has allowed 6.45 hits per start and has a challenging matchup today. The Padres have had MLB's highest road batting average (.274) this year.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.