Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has five games starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. The suggested pick ’em choices at PrizePicks and Underdog are also from the small five-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. PIT
Framber Valdez is in excellent form and a challenging matchup for opponents in his home ballpark. According to FanGraphs, in Valdez's previous four starts spanning 25.0 innings, he's had a 2.16 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, 3.14 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 53.4 GB%, 9.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, 30.5 CSW%, 113 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 106 Pitching. In addition, in 25 starts at home, totaling 159.0 innings since last year, Valdez has had a 3.23 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 56.6 GB%, 5.8 BB% and 25.6 K%.
Valdez has a favorable matchup and ideal betting info tonight. The Pirates are 18th in wRC+ (99) with a 24.6 K% versus lefties and 24th in wRC+ (88) with a 25.3 K% on the road this year. Pittsburgh was also 22nd in wRC+ (101) with a 20.7 K% since July 1. Thus, Houston is -210, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Logan Webb (SF) vs. OAK
Logan Webb is a monster at home. In 25 starts spanning 171.2 innings at home since last year, Webb has had a 2.52 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 64.8 GB%, 4.1 BB% and 21.7 K%. Furthermore, he's had 22 quality starts in his past 25 starts at home.
The Athletics are a potentially challenging matchup. They were first in wRC+ (139) with a 21.4 K% since July 1. Yet, Oakland is 14th in wRC+ (99) with a 25.8 K% versus righties and 20th in wRC+ (91) with a 27.2 K% on the road this year. As a result, the Giants are -218, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Reds are tied for 24th in wRC+ (90) versus righties and tied for 24th in wRC+ (91) at home this year. Yet, they've been better lately, ranking tied for 19th in wRC+ (102) since July 1. Obviously, sneaking into the top 20 in wRC+ isn't exceptional, but Kyle Hendricks can bring the best out of Cincinnati at Great American "Small" Park.
In 19 appearances (14 starts) this year, Hendricks has had a 6.95 ERA and 5.14 xERA, allowing 1.79 HR/9. The veteran righty has also had a 5.01 ERA and 4.62 xFIP on the road since last year. In addition, Hendricks has had a 7.15 ERA and 5.25 xFIP in his previous five starts. Finally, Hendricks has allowed a .327 wOBA to 175 righties and a .385 wOBA to 177 lefties this year.
Core Studs
- Elly De La Cruz is locked in. In his previous 94 plate appearances, he's hit four homers and stolen 15 bases with a .383 OBP, .253 ISO and 156 wRC+.
- Jeimer Candelario has feasted on righties at home this year. In 130 plate appearances against righties at Great American Ball Park this season, Candelario has hit 11 homers with a .315 OBP, .373 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- In 346 plate appearances against lefties since 2022, Isaac Paredes has hit 15 homes with a .358 OBP, .212 ISO and 138 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- TJ Friedl has a DFS-friendly lineup spot, a dreamy matchup and stellar numbers against righties at home. In 350 plate appearances against righties at home since 2022, Friedl has hit 17 homers with a .338 OBP, .236 ISO and 116 wRC+.
- In 362 plate appearances against righties at home since 2022, Jake Fraley has hit 14 homers with a .348 OBP, .190 ISO and 117 wRC+.
- Sadly, Brandon Drury is having a forgettable season at the dish, to put it mildly. Still, in 325 plate appearances against lefties since 2022, Drury has hit 19 homers with a .311 OBP, .247 ISO and 125 wRC+.
Wednesday's Top 3 Underdog and PrizePicks Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Elly De La Cruz: 9.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)
Elly De La Cruz: 9.0 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
De La Cruz has excelled against righties at home, especially this year. In 134 plate appearances against righties at home this year, De La Cruz has hit eight homers with a .388 OBP, .284 ISO and 163. And, of course, he's an elite base stealer, swiping 55 this season.
Jake Fraley: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher (Underdog)/More (PrizePicks)
As I highlighted in Fraley's write-up above, he's excellent at home against righties. And, again, Hendricks is a raging tire fire against lefties. In addition, Fraley has exceeded 1.5 runs plus hits and RBIs five times in nine starts this month. Thus, we project Fraley to have 2.34 hits plus runs and RBIs.
Yordan Alvarez: 8.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)
Yordan Alvarez: 8.0 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Since 2022, Yordan Alvarez has had a .399 OBP, .303 ISO and 172 wRC+ against righties. He's also in outstanding form. In his previous 90 plate appearances, Alvarez has hit four homers with a .433 OBP, .267 ISO and 182 wRC+. Finally, Jake Woodford has allowed a .437 wOBA to 19 lefties this year after yielding a .412 wOBA to 108 lefties last season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.