MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Tuesday (7/2)

Today’s MLB DFS slate has 11 games at DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The 11-game slate is also the source of pick ’em selections at PrizePicks and Underdog.

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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Tuesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

George Kirby (SEA) vs. BAL
George Kirby has been an unstoppable force lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he's had a 1.74 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 3.04 SIERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.6 BB%, 26.5 K%, 25.9 CSW%, 107 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 106 Pitching+. Kirby has twirled four straight quality starts entering tonight.

Kirby's matchup is admittedly a nightmare. The Orioles are third in wRC+ (119) with a 20.2 K% versus righties and third in wRC+ (119) with a 21.6 K% on the road this year. Baltimore was also second in wRC+ (144) with an 18.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Nevertheless, the betting info is stellar. The Mariners are slight underdogs (-105), but the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs. SD
Nathan Eovaldi also has a challenging matchup. The Padres are tied for first in wRC+ (123) with an 18.2 K% versus righties and seventh in wRC+ (108) with a 17.0 K% on the road this season. They were also fifth in wRC+ (130) with a 15.5 K% in the previous 14 days. Eovaldi will have tough sledding, and he could get torched.

Still, the Rangers are -115, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. More importantly, Eovaldi is a handful in his home ballpark. In 110.1 innings at home since last year, Eovaldi has had a 3.10 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 7.6 BB% and 25.1 K%.

Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. HOU

Jose Berrios hasn't pitched well lately, and the Astros have an above-average offense by the applicable splits for tonight's matchup. Yet, the veteran righty is an enticing GPP pick because of his sharp numbers at home.

In 142.2 innings at home since 2023, Berrios has had a 2.96 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 6.0 BB% and 22.6 K%. Berrios has spun 15 quality starts in 23 starts at home since last season. Finally, the Blue Jays are slight favorites (-115), albeit with a suboptimal total of 8.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Home (Dodger Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -190

The Dodgers have a sweet matchup tonight. In Ryne Nelson's past five starts spanning 27.2 innings, he's had a 5.20 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP and 12.6 K%. Nelson is at the mercy of batted balls, and he's struggled against all hitters. The 157 lefties who've faced Nelson this year have had a .328 wOBA, and the 150 righties have had an eye-popping .423 wOBA. LA's juggernaut offense should feast tonight.

• Home (Coors Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/COL +105

The Rockies don't have impressive hitting numbers this year. Colorado is only 25th in wRC+ (89) against lefties and 27th in wRC+ (83) at home. Yet, they're 13th in wOBA (.316) against lefties and ninth in wOBA (.329) at home. It's imperative not to double-count the impact of Coors Field, but the stellar wOBA at home for the Rockies is a reminder of how impactful the park factors in Colorado have been.

Colorado has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. Dallas Keuchel coughed up five earned runs in 4.0 innings in his only big-league start this year. Last year, Keuchel had a 5.97 ERA, 5.59 xERA, 5.10 SIERA, 1.67 WHIP and 4.1 K-BB% in 14 starts. Keuchel is cooked, and he's unlikely to navigate Coors Field.

Core Studs

• Shohei Ohtani has hit 26 homers and stolen 16 bases with a .399 OBP, .319 ISO, .436 wOBA, .456 xwOBA and 188 wRC+ in 375 plate appearances this year.
• In 146 career plate appearances against lefties at home since 2022, Ezequiel Tovar has hit six homers with a .336 OBP, .212 ISO, .359 wOBA and 99 wRC+.
• Since 2022, Will Smith has had a .336 OBP, .178 ISO and 115 wRC+ against righties.

Value Plays/Punts

• Brendan Rodgers has torn the cover off the ball with the platoon advantage at home, tallying nine homers with a .424 OBP, .254 ISO, .444 wOBA and 160 wRC+ in 158 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field.
• Ben Rice has a .375 OBP and 111 wRC+ in his first 40 plate appearances in the majors after dominating at the dish in the upper minors. Furthermore, Graham Ashcraft has allowed a .359 wOBA to 141 lefties this season.
• Chris Taylor is punt-priced exposure to Nelson. He's in good form. In Taylor's last 29 plate appearances, he's hit two homers and stolen two bases with a .448 OBP, .346 ISO and 230 wRC+.

Tuesday's Top 3 Underdog and PrizePicks Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Ezequiel Tovar: 8.0 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)

Ezequiel Tovar: 7.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)

Tovar has punished lefties at Coors Field, and Keuchel is a dreamy matchup. Keuchel coughed up a .423 wOBA to 243 righties in 2022, a .385 wOBA to 131 righties in 2023 and a .473 wOBA to 16 righties in his only start in the majors this season.

Brendan Rodgers: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher/More

Rodgers can also take advantage of the cushy matchup. In 314 plate appearances against lefties since 2022, Rodgers has hit 15 doubles, one triple and 12 homers with a .307 batting average, .495 slugging and .187 ISO.

Grayson Rodriguez: 38.5 Fantasy Points - Lower (Underdog)

Grayson Rodriguez: 38.0 Fantasy Points - Less (PrizePicks)

Grayson Rodriguez has a stark contrast between his home and road numbers, struggling mightily on the road. In 18 career road starts spanning 96.0 innings, Rodriguez has had a 4.59 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, 27.7 K% and just four quality starts. He's primarily been a five-and-dive hurler on the road. Three messy starts have inflated his ERA. Nevertheless, his inability to pile up innings and generate quality starts will hinder his fantasy scoring.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.