MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (7/28)

We’re about 48 hours from the trade deadline and had some exciting trades over the last few days. It feels like the start of a chaotic deadline, and it should be fun from a fantasy baseball perspective. It doesn’t affect us from a DFS standpoint, but you must watch for potential transactions.

With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday slate!

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Sunday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Cole Ragans (KC) vs. CHC
Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the second half of last season, and he’d be a Cy Young frontrunner if it weren’t for two seven-run duds. If you take out those outliers, Ragans has a 2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate this season. He’s also got an 11.8 K/9 rate at home this year and shouldn’t have any issues against a Cubs team missing Cody Bellinger.

Bryce Miller (SEA) at CWS
Seattle has the best rotation in the game, but Bryce might be their most underrated arm. The right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, generating a 3.41 ERA and 1.03 WHIP for the year. We’d use him against anyone, but the White Sox are the worst offense in baseball. Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA.

Bailey Ober (MIN) at DET
Ober got obliterated in his debut, but he’s been outstanding since then. Since that disastrous debut, the Twins pitcher has had a 3.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 rate. That’s the stud we’ve seen for the last three years, and we don’t want to fade him against Detroit. The Motor City Kitties rank 20th in K rate, 27th in OBP, and 24th in wOBA, with Ober amassing a 1.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in three starts against them this year.

Tobias Myers (MIL) vs. MIA
Milwaukee always does a wonderful job of developing starters, and they’ve done that with Myers. The rookie has a 3.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while posting a 1.95 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across his last eight starts. Those superb statistics should be easy to maintain against Miami, with the Marlins ranked 29th in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s why he enters this matchup as a -200 favorite!

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Spencer Arrighetti)

• Road (Minute Maid Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/HOU -130

We would use anyone against Arrighetti right now, but LA is one of the scariest lineups in the league. They rank Top 5 in nearly every offensive category, while Arrighetti has a 5.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

San Francisco Giants (vs. Austin Gomber)

• Home (Oracle Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/SF -210

We had San Fran as one of our stacks yesterday, and it’s easy to understand why. They face the Rockies, who rank last in ERA and WHIP. Gomber hasn’t done anything to help those atrocious averages, accruing a 7.14 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across his last nine starts.

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• We just talked about how Arrighetti has one of the worst ERAs and WHIPs in baseball, which is terrifying against a guy like Ohtani. The MVP frontrunner is flirting with triple crown numbers, collecting 32 homers, 25 steals, 81 runs, and 76 RBI en route to a .318 AVG. That’s a historic season, and it looks even better since he has a .427 OBP and 1.148 OPS against righties!
• Seager has been scorching recently, registering a .430 OBP and 1.067 OPS across his last 19 outings. This is close to what we’ve seen for two years, with Corey compiling a .377 OBP and .940 OPS since the start of last year. He’s also got a 1.024 OPS against righties in that span and shouldn’t have any issues against a pitcher with a 6.69 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across his last seven starts.
• Riley got off to a rough start, but he’s been rolling for a month now. The former All-Star has a .391 OBP, .669 SLG, and 1.061 OPS over his last 34 games. He’s also shy of a 1.000 career OPS against lefties, which won’t bode well for David Peterson. We also don’t mind Riley’s BvP numbers against Peterson, providing a .435 OBP and .959 OPS in over 20 at-bats against him.
• If we stack San Fran against a southpaw, Ramos has to be one of our first options. This guy has developed into one of the Giants best bats, generating a .294 AVG and .857 OPS. His splits are spectacular, too, sporting a .520 OBP And 1.356 OPS against left-handers! Good luck, Gomber!

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Winker has quietly had a fantastic season in Washington, collecting 11 homers and 14 steals as their everyday three-hole hitter. Almost all that damage has come against right-handers, totaling a .390 OBP and .845 OPS against them. Winker has had his way with Mikolas throughout his career, collecting a .412 OBP and 1.225 OPS in 17 at-bats against him. UPDATE: Winker was traded on Saturday night.
• Cruz was terrible through the opening months of the year, but something has clicked recently. The shortstop has been moved into the heart of Pittsburgh’s lineup, posting a .371 OBP and .975 OPS since July 1. He’s also rocked right-handers, amassing a .836 OPS against them. This is not a righty that worries us because Yilber Diaz allowed seven runs in his most recent outing.
• Burleson might be the Cardinals best bat this season. The outfielder has been hitting second for them in the second half, tallying a .323 AVG and .939 OPS across his last 31 games. He’s also got a .929 OPS against righties for the year, and he gets to face one with a 5.73 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across his last five starts.
• O’Hearn has been hitting cleanup nearly every time the O’s face a righty. It’s easy to see why, with the outfielder providing a .350 OBP and .826 OPS against them this year. His recent form is also encouraging, accumulating a .363 OBP and .836 OPS over his last 40 fixtures. Randy Vasquez has been much better recently, but his 1.48 WHIP is still ugly.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Jon Gray: 3.5 Strikeouts – Higher

There’s no doubt that Gray has struggled with his strikeouts, but he doesn’t need to do much to top this. Toronto ranks 26th in total offense, while Gray has at least seven strikeouts in five of the seven games he’s thrown at least 90 pitches.

Tobias Myers: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Myers faces the second-worst offense in baseball here, who just traded their best hitter on Saturday. That’s scary since Harris has cleared this prop in five of his last six starts!

Carlos Rodon: 7.5 Strikeouts – Lower

This feels like a lofty strikeout total. Boston has one of the best offenses in baseball, and Rodon has a 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his last seven starts.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.