When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players entering make-or-break seasons.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Quarterbacks
Will we ever again see the early-career version of Deshaun Watson — the one who was a top-five fantasy quarterback in each of his first three full seasons as an NFL starter? Watson has struggled to recapture the magic of his run with the Texans from 2018 to 2020. He was understandably rusty when he made his Browns debut late in the 2022 season after serving an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy. Watson wasn’t significantly better in six 2023 starts for the Browns before a shoulder injury ended his season. In each of his two abbreviated seasons with Cleveland, Watson has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game. He’s completed 59.8% of his passes over the last two years and has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Watson turns 29 at the beginning of the 2024 season, and it’s seeming less and less likely that he’ll ever recapture the electrifying form he showed when he first burst onto the NFL scene. Approach with caution.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
After a triumphant 2022 season in which he threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, completing an NFL-high 69.8% of his passes, Geno Smith floated back down to earth in 2023. Despite working with the WR trio of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith finished QB25 in fantasy scoring last year, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. So … will the real Geno Smith please stand up? With Seattle’s ample pass-catching weaponry, a return to the heights of 2022 is certainly possible for Smith. But the 33-year-old Smith has only had one good NFL season, so it’s not inconceivable that he could play his way out of a starting job.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Will Levis quickened the pulses of fantasy football managers when he threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his first NFL start. But after those Levis pyrotechnics in Week 8, the rookie QB couldn’t get much cooking for the rest of the season, throwing only four TD passes over his next eight starts. It’s hard to tell what to make of Levis for 2024. The book on him coming out of college was that he had the Josh Allen starter kit (rocket arm, good mobility) but was far from a finished product. The good news is that the Titans seem committed to their young quarterback. They signed free-agent WR Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million deal, giving Levis a veteran WR duo of Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Tennessee also signed veteran slot receiver Tyler Boyd and made investments in a leaky offensive line. Levis is probably going to encounter rough patches in his first full season as a starter, but a dramatically upgraded supporting cast gives him a fighting chance to be a pleasant fantasy surprise.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Is it far-fetched to think that we might get a rebound from Daniel Jones in 2024 after his ugly, injury-shortened season in 2023? Optimists will note that Jones finished QB9 in fantasy points per game in 2022, fueled by 708 rushing yards and seven TD runs. They’ll also point out that with the Giants spending the No. 6 pick in the NFL Draft on Malik Nabers, Jones will have a true No. 1 receiver for the first time in his professional career. The pessimists will note that in the six games Jones played last year before getting hurt, he posted a dismal passer rating of 70.5, with two TD passes and six interceptions. They’ll add that Daniels has averaged fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in all five of his NFL seasons. The ceiling for Jones may be higher than some fantasy managers realize, but it’s entirely possible that Jones will stumble early in the season and be replaced by Drew Lock.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Running Backs
I’ll own the L here. Tony Pollard was a massive disappointment last year. He went from being one of the most explosive backs in the NFL to a rusher that left a ton of yards on the field. Pollard got the role that we all wanted last season, ranking seventh in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and second in red zone touches. He was a volume-eating machine, ranking seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs, but he did very little with the work. Pollard was the RB11 in expected fantasy points per game, but he was the RB23 in fantasy points per game. He was 44th in yards per touch and 37th in yards created per touch. Some of this could easily be due to the injury he sustained in the prior season because his numbers down the stretch were much better. In Weeks 11-18, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, so there’s hope that he bounces back in 2024 with a full offseason to get back to 100%. Tennessee isn’t the sexiest landing spot for Pollard, but considering the contract size and length and the team’s yearning to move quickly to acquire his services, he should be considered their lead back in 2024. Tyjae Spears will push him at every turn, but money talks and Pollard got it this offseason.
– Derek Brown
Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn’t pretty. Volume wasn’t the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it’s possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver’s early down guy, but don’t be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.
– Derek Brown
Injuries decimated Kendre Miller‘s rookie season. He was limited to only eight games played, and he crossed the 30% snap mark only three times. Miller posted interesting/borderline impressive per-touch numbers when he got opportunities, with a 24% missed tackle rate and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). We’ll see how much work he can siphon off from Alvin Kamara this season, but don’t be surprised if he can eat into his work and carve out a 40-50% snap role weekly. He does have to contend with Jamaal Williams as Kamara’s understudy, so it’s not a clear path to success. Miller is still an intriguing late-round pick/RB4 for 2024.
– Derek Brown
Wide Receivers
Jahan Dotson‘s 2023 season was disappointing after a promising rookie campaign, characterized by inefficiency in a pass-heavy Commanders offense. However, Curtis Samuel‘s departure to the Bills opens up opportunities for Dotson to rebound in Year 3. Despite his struggles, Dotson showed flashes of potential in games where Samuel was absent or limited, posting strong numbers. With the Commanders’ passing game relying heavily on volume over efficiency, Dotson, along with teammate Terry McLaurin, will depend on improved quarterback play from Jayden Daniels to elevate their fantasy value. Dotson’s red-zone involvement in 2023 signals his potential for increased scoring opportunities with better quarterback performance.
– Andrew Erickson
Quentin Johnston‘s rookie season left much to be desired, with disappointing production. Despite the Chargers’ offseason moves opening up opportunities, including the departure of key receivers, Johnston failed to capitalize on his chances. With Ladd McConkey drafted early, Johnston’s future role in the offense becomes uncertain. While it may be premature to label him a bust after just one season, his lack of impact in Year 1 (61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run) raises red flags for his fantasy value moving forward.
– Andrew Erickson
Tight Ends
A trendy sleeper choice a year ago, Chigoziem Okonkwo turned in a mildly disappointing season in 2023, but he’s an intriguing post-hype sleeper candidate for 2024. After a promising rookie season in which he had 32 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns, Okonkwo boosted his reception and yardage totals in 2023, with 54 catches for 528 yards. But Okonkwo scored only one touchdown last season, and he went from 14.1 yards per catch and 2.61 yards per route run in 2022 to 9.6 yards per catch and 1.31 yards per route run in 2023. If young Titans QB Will Levis endures growing pains, Okonkwo’s breakout chances could suffer. On the other hand, the Titans don’t have a great deal of firepower at the WR position, which boosts Okonkwo’s target outlook. Consider Okonkwo a midrange TE2 for 2024 fantasy drafts.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Other Players in Make-or-Break Seasons
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2024 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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