John Deere Classic: One-and-Done Picks & Predictions

The 2024 John Deere Classic is set to tee off from Silvis, Illinois on the 4th of July. TPC Deere Run is a course located near the banks of the Mississippi River, situated near the Iowa-Illinois border. It’s elevation changes and bentgrass fairways and greens form a traditional test for golfers, who will compete against a field of 156 players while navigating the challenges of this former Arabian horse farm.

There aren’t many top-tier golfers in the field this week, so it’s a great time to use some of the second and third-tier golfers that have been held onto during one-and-done and survivor contests. Sungjae Im and defending champion Sepp Straka are the outright betting favorites ahead of Round 1, followed by two-time JDC winner, Jordan Spieth, and Aaron Rai, who is coming off of a strong showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

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Big Guns

Sepp Straka
The defending champion at TPC Deere Run, Sepp Straka, is high in the outright betting market ahead of Round 1. Straka’s putting woes have kept him from adding more outright wins in 2024 but he’s the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour and has amassed four top-ten finishes, including a pair of T5s at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial a month ago.

Strokes gained: off-the-tee and on approach are solid, but the Austrian golfer must improve his short game to return value in one-and-done formats this week.

Denny McCarthy
Denny McCarthy is still searching for his first outright win since joining the PGA Tour in 2015. A pair of T6 finishes at this event in each of the past two years shows that he’s knocking on the door, especially with his playoff loss to Akshay Bhatia at Valero earlier this season.

Ranked second strokes gained: putting helps counter his sub-par irons and off-the-tee abilities, while his strokes gained around-the-green also sit inside the top-25 on the PGA Tour. A short, wide course like TPC Deere Run helps McCarthy out a lot, so he’s an ideal candidate to deliver another strong finish in survivor leagues.

Secondary Options

Aaron Rai
Aaron Rai will make his debut at TPC Deere Run since joining the PGA Tour in 2022. Rai has multiple wins internationally and looked to be honing in on his first on the PGA Tour during the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, but his tee shots found the rough frequently in Round 4, forcing the Englishman to play out of errant lies.

Rai is among the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, ranked sixth in strokes gained: approaching the green and 28th strokes gained: off-the-tee. He’s decent around the green but his putting, although improved, still sits outside the top-100 for strokes gained: putting. An accurate driver and 20th hole proximity could inflict a lot of damage this week in his debut, making Rai valuable enough to deploy in one-and-done formats.

Jordan Spieth
It’s been a struggle for Jordan Spieth on the golf course in the past few months. The Texas native has 13 outright wins on the PGA Tour though, including two at this event, although they came a decade ago.

Ranked 16th strokes gained: off-the-tee and seventh in putting average, including 28th for par 4 scoring and 33rd in birdie average, we could see Spieth bounce back in a big way at TPC Deere Run this week.

Sneaky Plays

Lucas Glover
It hasn’t been anywhere near the success of 2023, but 44-year-old Lucas Glover has historically played well at this event. Ranked 13th strokes gained: approaching the green and 43rd around-the-green, Glover is still seeking his first top-ten finish of the season.

Previous finishes of T10, winner, MC, and T6 demonstrate Glover’s sustained success at TPC Deere Run. Even if he doesn’t log an outright win, a top-ten finish with Glover is a great way to gain points in one-and-done formats with only a few events remaining before the FedExCup playoffs.

Alex Smalley
Alex Smalley has missed double the number of cuts than he’s made in 2024, however, he’s another golfer who has played well at TPC Deere Run in recent outings.

Ranked 41st for greens in regulation rate, 51st strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 34th in hole proximity, Smalley has a lot to offer despite playing poorly early on in most events he’s entered this season.

Favorite One-And-Done: Nick Dunlap

Nick Dunlap won the American Express tournament back in January when he was still an amateur, carding a 29-under-par final scorecard. Dunlap was solid at Detroit Golf Club last week too, grinding out his first top-ten finish since joining the PGA Tour as a pro.

Ranked 15th in putting average and birdie average, converting 35 percent of birdie attempts, good enough for seventh on the PGA Tour in 2024, Dunlap is also making his debut at TPC Deere Run this week. He’s been better off-the-tee and on approach, plus we know he can deliver with his putter on the greens.

Don’t hesitate to insert Dunlap in survivor and one-and-done leagues this week, as he’s also carded a T12 finish at Memorial against a stronger field on a tougher course a month ago.