In 2023 PPR leagues, the top 12 running backs included Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Alvin Kamara and James Cook.
As we venture into the 2024 season, seven of those running backs are currently being drafted inside the top 12 of running backs. The other five include Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, Isiah Pacheco and Josh Jacobs.
That said, finding the running backs who are outside of that range and could find themselves there is one of the major keys to having a successful fantasy football team.
Below, we’ll look at the running backs currently being drafted outside the top 12 to see which are in a position to become that at season’s end.
Let’s dive in.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Identifying the Next Fantasy Football RB1s
(All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and TeamRankings)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) or Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
I’m listing Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren together because this is a timeshare that could result in one of them pulling ahead.
In 2023, Harris had 255 carries for 1,035 yards and eight touchdowns while catching 29 passes for 170 yards. As for Warren, he had 149 carries, 784 yards and four touchdowns. He also caught 61 passes for 370 yards.
If I had to pick, the more likely candidate is Warren due to his pass-catching ability in recent years. Harris has shown that ability, but that hasn’t been the case recently.
There are some key components to consider: The new offensive coordinator and the improved offensive line.
The offensive line now consists of Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, James Daniels and Troy Fautanu, going from left to right tackle.
As for the offensive coordinator, it’s Arthur Smith, who most recently served as the Atlanta Falcons’ head coach and was the Tennessee Titans’ offensive coordinator before that.
Here’s how his offenses have finished rushing yards-wise since 2019:
- 2019: Third
- 2020: Second
- 2021: 31st
- 2022: Second
- 2023: Eighth
So, other than 2021, his first season as head coach of the Falcons, Smith consistently finished in the top 10 (even top three) and now has two suitable running backs and an overhauled offensive line.
As mentioned, Warren is the more likely candidate, but one of these running backs is in for a fantastic 2024.
Warren is currently going as the RB24 and Harris as the RB22.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
Before the 2023 campaign, Jones was a consistent RB1. Now, on a new team, he’ll look to get back to his old ways.
In 2023, Jones played in 11 games. During that time, he had 142 carries for 656 yards and two rushing scores. He also caught 30 passes on 43 targets for 233 yards and a score. His yards per carry was his lowest (4.6 yards) since 2019.
Before that, Jones either had 1,000 rushing yards or double-digit touchdowns from 2019 and on.
Jones heads up a depth chart on the Vikings with Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, Myles Gaskin and DeWayne McBride behind him.
Jones had a hamstring injury and sprained his MCL in 2023, which could come back to haunt him. Chandler showed some competency in 2023 after posting 102 carries for 461 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught 21 passes for 159 yards.
Chandler could get some run, but if Jones can stay healthy for most of the season, he should finish at or close to RB1 territory. It boils down to how many games he’s active for.
Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)
For my last pick, I wanted to throw a dart with Carolina Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks.
Brooks is currently being drafted as the RB25 in PPR leagues, which is fringe RB2 territory.
The biggest question mark facing Brooks heading into 2024 is his ACL tear, which he suffered in November 2023. So, a big part of this projection assumes Brooks is ready to go from Week 1 or extremely close to it.
Brooks is on a depth chart with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders as the main competitors, but I’m not overly concerned with Sanders given his performance in 2023, his lack of usage despite a big-money deal and the fact a new coaching staff has been installed. The latter point also comes into play for Hubbard. He’s been with the team since 2021. Brooks joined the team after getting drafted in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Given his draft position and this being a new staff, Brooks will be the guy pending his health. Hubbard averaged 3.8 yards per carry on 238 carries in 2023; his time as a mainstay on the field is over.
Brooks also showed some pass-catching ability in 2023 with the Texas Longhorns — 25 receptions for 286 yards and one touchdown.
He’s ready to go, and his talent is RB1-worthy. It boils down to his health and whether Bryce Young will resemble a competent starting quarterback.
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