Writing about players to avoid/potential busts is one of my favorite annual topics in fantasy football. It’s far too easy to fall in love with every player, but realistically, you can’t afford to have equal exposure to every player, especially those high up on the draft board. You need to be more critical and sometimes bearish compared to the consensus on certain player average draft positions (ADPs).
As usual, we’ll start by exploring the general characteristics of what makes a player a bust, reviewing the hits and misses from last season, and then applying those lessons to the upcoming fantasy football year.
Writing about players to avoid/potential busts is one of my favorite annual topics in fantasy football. It’s far too easy to fall in love with every player, but realistically, you can’t afford to have equal exposure to every player, especially those high up on the draft board. You need to be more critical and sometimes bearish compared to the consensus on certain player average draft positions (ADPs).
As usual, we’ll start by exploring the general characteristics of what makes a player a bust, reviewing the hits and misses from last season, and then applying those lessons to the upcoming fantasy football year.
Finding Busts
You know the old phrase…”Strangers are the friends you haven’t met yet?” Well, in fantasy football land, I think there’s a similar idiom. Busts are often the breakouts that fail to fire. Before players are labeled as “busts” after the season (or early-to-middle, depending on how bad the player was), there’s usually a legitimate case for why they are being drafted so highly. The case for unthinkingly drafting “upside” is often accompanied by a significant amount of risk that some drafters overlook entirely. I tend to also agree with this upside-driven approach – if you ain’t first, you’re last, Ricky Bobby – but it’s still important to recognize the risk and sheer bust potential with certain players heading into the 2024 fantasy football season.
In the final (and lengthy) part four of my offseason Players to Avoid series (QBs, RBs, and TEs are also completed), I’ll break down what a bust looks like among the 2024 crop of wide receivers. I’ll also identify which WRs come with the most red flags that have me overly concerned about their bust potential in 2024. And although I am not an injury expert, I will be coming to the table with some injury notes on players. Because many busts fail to perform due to injuries, it’s not something you should ignore, especially with the increased data on injuries from several experts. I’ll also leverage adjusted games lost due to injuries – a metric that measures injury impact similarly to DVOA.
I’ll also do my best to separate bust players from the players listed in my “Buyer Beware” section. Not all players I’m shying away from will be busts. Specifically, with certain positions, as I’ll touch on soon, some players may finish exactly where their ADPs are. But that’s not how I am playing the game. I don’t want players to meet expectations; I want them to exceed expectations. At the same time, I want to circumvent the players who may drastically fail to meet their expectations.
These are the fantasy football busts.
Gabe Davis wasn’t a bust in 2022 because he played like trash. He was the WR27. He scored the same points per game as Zay Jones…who many look back on and are fond of from 2022 as a great sleeper pick.
The same can be said for Calvin Ridley from the 2023 season. In a vacuum, a 76-1016-8 stat line as the WR17 is good in his first full season after a lengthy layoff from football. But his Round 3 ADP gave him no cushion. As a result, he was a bust compared to a WR like Jakobi Meyers, who scored nearly the same points per game…but as a late-round gem selected in the 14th-round pick.
Davis and Ridley were fantasy football busts because the drafting complex ballooned their ADPs to a point where they had little chance of exceeding their price tags. It’s situations like this you need to stay clear of in 2024. Because when it comes to identifying busts in fantasy football, it’s all about the price you pay and the opportunity cost.
2023 Wide Receiver Busts
Wide receiver busts come in all shapes and sizes, just like the position itself. Sometimes, it’s based on quarterback play that nukes a fantasy WR’s value. But other times, it’s on the WR themselves for not being talented enough to rise and take advantage of opportunities. Nevertheless, WRs tend to be the toughest position to solidify bust takes on because there is always an upside case worth chasing. Why do you think WR prices continue to rise every single draft season? Because fantasy managers are “chasing the upside.”
But not enough is discussed about the rock-bottom floor some of these players have, with their success dependent on many critical factors. And with WRs ADPs rising at a faster rate than in years past, you must stay clear of busts.
Note I didn’t include all the WRs who missed games due to injury (you likely know who they are).
2023 Bounceback Wide Receivers
But I think it’s also noteworthy that among the 18 WRs who were busts in 2022 – specifically 72% of the ones drafted as top-30 WRs – many of them turned into strong values, either season-long or points per game, in 2023 bounceback campaigns: Mike Evans (WR7), Deebo Samuel (WR9), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR10), D.J. Moore (WR14), Mike Williams (WR16, ppg), Courtland Sutton (WR17), Brandin Cooks (WR23) and Adam Thielen (WR29).
Their 2022 seasons were unusually bad compared to the rest of their careers. I noticed other trends while looking at the 2022 busts (drafted inside the top 30) who rebounded.
They also each had at least one top-20 finish in half-PPR on their resume.
They all ranked inside the top 40 in expected points per game during the 2022 season, with several inside the top 30.
Averaged fewer than 0.5 points per game versus expectation between 10-11 points per game (half-PPR).
Averaged identical catches total (68) versus expectation (68) over the 17-game regular season. Yards were 840 versus 865 expected per PFF.
Averaged just 4.25 TDs (-1.5 versus expectation).
The poor 2022 production wasn’t injury-related (all played at least 13 games)
As I alluded to during the opening, many of the WRs that are busts are the projected breakouts and bounce-backs that didn’t fire.
Recent Drafts Retrospective
Flashback to the 2022 draft season.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the consensus breakout candidate across all media outlets but flamed out entirely with a new quarterback.
D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, Diontae Johnson, and Allen Robinson were all underwhelming with new quarterbacks despite it seeming like they had gotten QB upgrades during the offseason. Again, every real-life NFL team is trying to improve their team from the year before, so theoretically, a bystander can always spin a narrative about how a new QB can boost a WR’s production. But it doesn’t always turn out that way, especially with rookie QBs, who notoriously tank their pass-catchers fantasy value (C.J. Stroud, hold my beer).
Sutton and Robinson were also bad in 2021, but they were given excuses for their poor performances. Don’t be so forgiving. Talented players find a way to produce even in bad spots. We don’t want excuses. We want results.
And who could forget Gabe Davis – the classic bust example used in the intro for this article – and his ludicrous 2022 ADP because of his status as the No. 2 WR playing in a high-powered offense? When a WR has a new QB – for better or worse, even if it seems crystal clear – the bust probability increases. And when a WR is getting steamed for their improved situation as a selling point, it’s likely another indication that you should proceed with caution.
Remember, hitting on break-out candidates is two-fold. Obviously, the player “hitting” is step 1. But part of a player’s “breaking out” considers the price you paid to get them. Simply put, the higher a potential breakout candidate is drafted, the harder it becomes for them to exceed expectations and actually break out. So when you look at the draft board and identify certain players as “breakouts,” note their price tag.
Pittman was by far the most expensive “breakout” WR in 2022 as the WR10. That’s a MAJOR red flag. Because even if he hits…. He’s just meeting expectations. It’s just a small win… that takes on an enormous amount of risk. Similarly, the next guy – Mike Williams – was projected for a MASSIVE year. He was a bust as WR15/16.
In 2023, the projected breakouts that failed to fire included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Calvin Ridley. Christian Watson was another popular breakout candidate later on that failed to hit. All were very pricy based on “potential.”
Do you sense the pattern here?
From an optimal systematic drafting approach, it’s smart to fade the highest projected “breakout” WRs determined by the market’s ADP. The last two years have shown the reward is not worth the risk. It’s not hard to identify breakout WRs. Young WRs are thrust into large roles due to vacated targets, etc. QB upgrades are not fully accepted by the fantasy football drafting complex.
The challenge is practicing the discipline of how much to invest into them. Sometimes, we can seriously overvalue a quarterback’s immediate impact.
In 2021, Terry McLaurin was drafted as the WR10 despite back-to-back seasons outside the top-20. Why did his draft cost rise so much? Ryan Fitzpatrick was projected to be the starter. The journeyman QB played in one game before missing the rest of the season. Insert sad trombone sound.
Fast forward to 2024, and the poster boy for breakout WR has to be Drake London. The WR11 in ADP is an early Round 2 pick. Although some could make the argument that Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s status as a projected breakout is more risky. More to come with MHJ, who has already been “as advertised” during Cardinals summer OTAs per the Athletic.
Regardless, London is going to be on the top of every single breakout article you read in fantasy football despite zero top-30 finishes in his first two seasons in the NFL. I know, I know, the horrible Atlanta QB play is the reason he’s been bad.
But all I am saying is Garrett Wilson found a way to be a top-26 WR in his first two seasons, with equally as bad, if not worse, QB play. George Pickens also had horrible QB play last season. He found a way to get into starting fantasy lineups.
Talented players find a way to produce even in bad spots. Again, don’t give me excuses. Give me the results.
I should also note that WRs performing well above their heads one year are prime bust candidates the following season. No better picture of that than at the top between Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans from 2021. Both guys finished top-5 in fantasy points scored over expectation in 2021. Adam Thielen finished seventh in this category as well and was also a bust. But I mentioned earlier these 2022 busts came back STRONG in 2023. The production comes full circle during the 3-season cycle. He performs well above expectation, falls off a cliff the next season, and then middles out in Year 3.
In 2022, the future “busts” who performed massively over expectation – Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Christian Watson and DeVonta Smith. All expensive players with high ADPs in 2023. And they will all likely be discounted after being inappropriately priced during the 2023 draft season for 2024 NFL drafts, i.e. buying the dip due to recency bias.
Those specific players also highlight the risk of overinvesting in the expensive real-life No. 2 WRs a la Waddle, Smith, Higgins, Lockett, Dotson, etc. They did not pay off last season. I’ve written about targeting No. 2 real-life WRs as a strategy in fantasy football, giving the caveat that the price is capped based on the real-life WR2 label.
We shouldn’t expect the same production to carry over, especially when the market is fully baking in last year’s OVER production too much. It’s not impossible – some guys are just that good and situations can change in their favor – but it’s a red flag when it comes to avoiding bust WRs. Plain and simple.
The Importance of YAC Metrics
Another attribute to look at when it comes to finding (and, more importantly, avoiding) WR busts is the player’s ability/talent. Specifically, what can this receiver do AFTER THE CATCH?
What a WR does with the ball in his hands is completely agnostic of quarterback play. It’s out of the passer’s hands at that point (literally) and now the responsibility of the receiver for post-production. If we consider some of the worst YAC receivers last season, the results are extremely telling: Jahan Dotson, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Drake London, Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith and Garrett Wilson.
During the 2023 season, the only WRs that I could find that were great after the catch and busted were Tee Higgins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnell Mooney, Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy, and Jaylen Waddle. Nearly all of these guys missed time with injuries, while most were productive when healthy. This paints a picture of potential bounce-back candidates, given their skill sets with the ball in their hands.
During the 2022 season, the only WRs that I could find that were great after the catch and busted were Deebo Samuel and Mike Williams. And both guys missed time with injuries, despite being productive when healthy. This foreshadowed them as two potential bounceback candidates, given their skill sets with the ball in their hands. Samuel was solid in 2023, and Williams was effective before his injury.
And for those WRs that didn’t bust that graded badly or worse in YAC compared to their career averages…that’s a potential red flag that a decline in production is coming if their quarterback play suffers in any way. Note that I am looking at aging WRs where the YAC decline can be more supported versus an outlier year for a younger player that can be better explained based on variance.
The Importance of Age
This dovetails nicely into my next factor: Age.
Here’s the scoop, as I outlined in one of my early 2024 WR rankings articles this offseason.
I’ve tracked this for a while, and this past year was a MASSIVE outlier, considering it’s been exactly four 30-year-old WRs to be top 50 guys since the 2020 season.
2023 – 9
2022 – 4
2021 – 4
2020 – 4
Note that this inflated number might just be based on the sheer TOTAL of older WRs playing in the NFL in 2023. Because even though a bunch of older guys delivered, there were still plenty that busted: Odell Beckham Jr., DeVante Parker, Robert Woods, and Michael Thomas.
The following WRs are already 30 years old or will turn 30 during the 2024 season, with some notes on potential outlooks ordered from most concern to least concern. Status quo indicates zero decline in YAC-ability worth flagging. I also layered in ESPN’s open score as another layer to add to the equation.
Brandin Cooks – Worst YAC/reception of his career (2.3). Also, the worst yards per route run of his career (1.19). Likely on the decline as he turns 31 in September.
Tyler Lockett – Worst YAC/reception of his career (2.8). 32 in September. Still posted the 17th-best open score in 2023, although the number was down from 2022.
Adam Thielen – Bad YAC receiver, but it’s been bad for 3 seasons. Still just a volume receiver. His open score improved from 2022 in 2023.
Cooper Kupp – Worst YAC/reception of his career (5.3). Not bad overall. Still, career-low yards per route run. Injuries have been piling up and he just turned 31. His 2023 open score? The same as Michael Thomas. You can’t make this stuff up…
Davante Adams – Worst YAC/reception since his second season in the NFL (3.3). Went from 8th to 15th in open score from 2022-2023.
DeAndre Hopkins – Was already not a great YAC receiver, but it’s been bad for three seasons. Volume-dependent receiver. He still posted ESPN’s 5th-highest open score in 2023.
The healthiest QB rooms last season were DAL, WAS, DET, BAL, GB, PHI, DEN, NE, MIA, BUF, LAR, and SF.
The QB-WR pairings that don’t project to have the same “injury luck” in 2024 include DAL, BUF, WAS, MIA, and DET. Three WRs on these teams are drafted in the first half of Round 1: CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill.
The last factor to consider is to ask yourself if you are high on a particular WR… and if are you also high on their quarterback as well. I’m not overly bullish on Cousins in Atlanta (he’s fine), so, therefore, I should hold some pessimism toward London. You can find all the other QBs that I am potentially concerned about in my Quarterbacks to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football).
The TLDR version: I’m not super bullish on Caleb Williams being able to support three viable fantasy football WRs from Day 1; most WRs attached to rookie QBs don’t have super-consistent production. Also, not the biggest fan of Derek Carr (who is). Although maybe I have turned a new leaf. I ranked him ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Baby steps.
Remember, WRs are dependent on their QBs. So, if you aren’t 100% sold on the QB-WR marriage, then you might need to take a step back and recalibrate your expectations. Very few instances of a bad QB supporting an elite fantasy WR (outside the few QB-proof WRs). I am happy to take Will Levis and Bryce Young late because I know their new WRs will also be cheap. These are the bets I prefer to make instead of chasing the steam of the next breakout WR.
Conversely, if you are high on a QB but uncertain about their WR due to price or some other variable, taking that QB gets you some exposure to that WR’s production. Don’t like Marvin Harrison’s ADP as a fringe 1st-round rookie? Then just draft Kyler Murray as your QB and get your exposure that way.
Before the grand unveiling of the 2024 WR Busts, let’s “briefly” recap the 2023 hits and misses to see what last year can tell us about this season.
Last season, I felt alone on an island being somewhat suspicious about Chris Olave‘s upside with Derek Carr. Drafted as the WR12, the Saints WR finished as the WR19 overall and WR21 in points per game. He was a prime example of a projected “breakout” that failed to deliver. Boo, Derek Carr.
And I cited that Olave – as good as his rookie year was – didn’t have the YAC juice to make up for Carr’s incompetence. Because before Davante Adams fell into his lap in 2022, Carr had never fueled fantasy WR1 seasons.
Part of Olave’s boosted 2023 ADP was based on his “per-route” efficiency. We, as fans and analysts, love fancy per-route statistics because they help us sort through the noise. And I think it helps us identify “good” WRs. The issue is that it doesn’t always reflect actual fantasy points scored, which – for better or worse – comes down to actual volume in several cases (total targets and actual receiving yards). Also similar to high yards per target, reception, etc., sometimes players that don’t run as many routes as their counterparts can stand out in metrics such as yards per route run and target rate per route run. Don’t get me wrong. It’s better than the stats we were using 10-plus years ago. But it’s not without its imperfections.
That’s why it shouldn’t come as a massive surprise that Hill, Aiyuk, and Collins headlined the top WRs last season in insane yards per route run metrics.
My other concern with Olave’s ADP last draft season was his lack of a true weekly ceiling. Again, spike weeks are super important, especially with more volatile WRs.
In 2022, Olave boasted a very “mid” 43% top-36 finisher rate. He finished as a fantasy WR3 or higher in just six of his 14 games played. In 2023, it increased to 73%. But it still wasn’t enough.
Part of Olave’s lack of weekly upside was due to a lack of red-zone targets. I’ve spoken about how elite red-zone usage unlocks fantasy WR1 outcomes. So, conversely, a lack of red-zone usage creates a rock-bottom floor. Unfortunately for Olave, his 2022 red-zone usage (11 targets) stayed low (12) in 2023. Although he tripled his inside the 10 targets (6 vs 2), which resulted in three of his five TDs scored. The Saints WR also earned nine end-zone targets. He also LED the Saints in red zone targets.
When just breaking down regular season end-zone targets, London had six. Waddle. Pittman and Pickens each had five. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tank Dell also only had five. had five. Deebo had just four end-zone targets (odd for a player with a ton of red-zone volume). The same as Christian Kirk, who also posted just a 12% red-zone target share. Woof.
Kirk has appeared in this article a few times for the wrong reasons. He’s the No. 1 receiver on his team by ADP, his YAC was bad in 2023 (along with the red-zone usage) and he doesn’t run a ton of routes as a slot WR. He checks the boxes of an ultimate floor play unless the red-zone usage flips in his favor. I don’t view him as an alpha and think there’s an outside chance Brian Thomas Jr. fills the alpha role in the offense at the expense of Kirk.
TDs can make or break high-priced WRs in fantasy football, especially in half-PPR. If you have any reservations about a player’s TD potential in the top rounds, given their red-zone role, you need to adjust expectations.
I also noted that Olave was slightly overvalued as the “alpha” in the Saints offense compared to Rashid Shaheed, given how they finished the year. It seemed like a red flag to me that Olave was being outproduced by a rookie UDFA (yardage toward the end of the 2022 season). It didn’t exactly translate into 2023 the way I thought, but Shaheed’s player note is worth mentioning.
“Over the last 19 games he [Shaheed] has played alongside Chris Olave, Shaheed has averaged 53.5 receiving yards per game compared to Olave’s 66.3. Shaheed also had more top-12 finishes (3) than Olave (2) in 2023.”
Any examples of beta WRs out-producing presumed alphas last season? Well, Stefon Diggs‘ bizarre second half is the first to come to mind when he was outgained by Khalil Shakir. Jerry Jeudy slightly out-produced Courtland Sutton once he was healthy in 2023, but it’s completely overshadowed by Jeudy’s lack of TDs.
Romeo Doubs was outgained by rookie Dontayvion Wicks in their last eight regular season games played together. However, Doubs closed the gap with a strong playoff showing. Tank Dell out-gained Nico Collins despite similar target shares in their last four games played together. Over the Rams’ last seven games, Demarcus Robinson was averaging nearly the same receiving yards per game as Cooper Kupp.
Before moving on from Olave – I like him more this year than last, I promise – I want to mention how I was very bullish on the Saints being a “run-oriented team.” The 2023 Saints were league-average in rush-play rate while ranking 10th in rushing attempts per game. They also ranked 10th in pass attempts per game because of their No. 5 status in plays per game.
Ultimately, that pre-season analysis didn’t matter or move the needle drastically for Olave. Going forward, I think it’s better to look more at sheer play volume versus projected run/pass splits. Regardless, I’ll add my ten cents when it comes to any concerns I have about the individual players in potential volume concern offenses.
Just off the cuff, Chicago’s offense under Shane Waldron might not be as super fruitful as we all hope. As Seattle’s OC in 2023, the Seahawks ranked dead last in plays per game last season. It was the second time in the last three seasons as Seattle’s OC that Seattle ranked dead last in plays per game.
From 2021-2023, Waldron’s offenses PROE was at 1%. All the offenses were average or below average in pass attempts per game. One positive was the offenses ranked top-10 in early down pass rate. Another team that struggled in sheer volume will be carrying over the same play caller is the Denver Broncos.
My final note on Olave was this “Olave is the highest-drafted “breakout” player after he failed to finish as a top-24 fantasy WR in his rookie season. Not a good bet for solid ROI in my estimates.”
How do I feel about Olave this season? Given his WR12 price tag as another WR in a long tier of guys selected in Round 2. Well, I think he’s pretty “safe” among the bunch in this range. Even though he didn’t live up to expectations last season, he still drastically improved from Year 1. 25% target share and 40% air yards share with over 1,800 air yards, which ranked 8th in the NFL. 10th in targets per snap. And although the “excitement” with Carr shouldn’t be overstated, these two have built-in chemistry that improved down the stretch in 2023. In the second half of the season, after the bye week, Olave ranked second in catchable target rate (89%), averaging 12.7 points per game (WR16). Weeks 1-11, Olave’s catchable target rate ranked 64th at 76%. From Week 9 onward, Olave averaged 13.3 points per game. That was WR12 in 2023.
Adding new OC Klint Kubiak from the Kyle Shanahan coaching scheme as the Saints’ new OC also bodes well for Olave to take another step in Year 3. We don’t know everything about Kubiak’s offense, but we can at least be bullish on them using more motion and play action than the prior regime. The fun stuff.
Up to this point, Olave has severely lacked a high weekly ceiling. Just two top-12 finishes per season two years into the league. But given Year 2 with Carr, his status as the unquestioned No. 1 in his offense, the Saints’ easy schedule and a new offensive scheme, 2024 could be the year we see Olave go from good to great. WRs are allowed to improve year after year. WR25 as a rookie, WR19 in Year 2. Year 3? Top-10 firmly in reach. And it comes with a much higher floor than so many other guys in this range. Olave is 15th in receiving yards per game (70 per game) over the last two seasons. He and Terry McLaurin are the only WRs with at least 2,000 yards over the last two seasons who have scored fewer than 10 total TDs. And as tilting as Carr can be, he still tied C.J. Stroud to lead the NFL in 300-plus yard passing games (6) and was seventh in end-zone throws.
Olave also flashed a bit of “target hog” usage during the preseason. On 15 routes run with Carr, Olave was targeted on 47% of them.
The name that raises the most eyebrows with this routes/snaps concern is Jayden Reed. He is being drafted after a fantastic rookie season. He finished 40th in targets in the regular season – fewer than Romeo Doubs in one less game played. He almost put up an identical stat line to another slot WR from his draft class: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Reed caught 64 balls on 90 targets; JSN caught 63 balls on 90 targets. The difference was Reed had more yards and doubled JSN’s receiving TDs (8 vs. 4). But JSN also ran nearly 100 more routes than Reed (407 vs 507).
My concern is that if Reed’s route participation doesn’t drastically increase in 2023, he won’t churn out the GB WR1 season that the market expects based on ADP. Because 59-percent route participation is not going to cut it. The issue is that if Reed remains the slot-only WR in the Packers offense, it likely will not budge.
In 2022, only one WR with a sub-80% route participation finished as a top-8 WR. In 2023, it was only Tyreek Hill. Although two more (Samuel/Collins) finished inside the top-12 despite sub-80% route participation. Efficiency monsters from offenses in the Kyle Shanahan offensive scheme. There’s a theme here…
Other things to note while looking at these player target totals (raw) during Weeks 1-18.
Garrett Wilson: 163 targets, fourth among all WRs. Get this man a QB.
Chris Olave: Bashed on Olave already, but we did see the total targets jump to 138 from 114 as a rookie.
Elijah Moore: Finished 33rd in targets (98). Enticing for Jerry Jeudy, should he rise to No. 2 on the Browns depth chart.
It’d be easy to copy and paste Derek Carr’s analysis with somebody like Kirk Cousins, where I’d claim he never was fueling elite WR1 seasons until Justin Jefferson fell into his lap in 2020.
Looking at Cousins’ stops up to that point, here’s what he has helped produce.
2015: TE Jordan Reed’s best season (Year 3 breakout)
Kyle Pitts stans are running victory laps looking at the Reed breakout back in 2015. And Drake London supporters will point out that Cousins supported Thielen to two top-8 finishes.
However, should be noted that Thielen’s influence from Cousins was extremely TD-driven. He had 14 TDs in 2020, 10 in 2021 (WR27) and nine in 2018. Even in an injury-shortened season (2019), Thielen still caught six TDs.
There’s no denying that the addition of Cousins to the Vikings in Year 1 (2018) helped Thielen set career highs in receiving yards (1,373) and catches (113). But Thielen had established himself as a top WR the year prior, as the WR11 with Case Keenum as his QB (91 catches and 1,200-plus yards). He already showed the ability to score fantasy points (the point of this game) before Cousins ever showed up.
The case for a guy like London (and his high-end Round 2 ADP) is that he can be Thielen, in case he’s not the next Jefferson (TBD). I also find it noteworthy that in most seasons, Cousins was consistently spreading the wealth between two receivers.
So, explain to me why London is being drafted so far ahead of Kyle Pitts? Are we so overly convinced that London would see the biggest TD boost with Cousins and not Pitts? Neither have been TD scorers at the NFL level, but we know why. I do find it interesting that of the two, only Pitts has a double-digit TD season on his resume when you include college statistics. But to be fair to London, he has led the NFL in back-to-back seasons in red-zone target percentage (14 red-zone targets in both seasons). The Falcons offense has tried to feed him the ball in the red zone the past two seasons, but to no avail. But it’s not all the QBs’ fault. London’s catchable target in the red zone was top 12 in 2023 at 81%. The issue was a lack of separation from the defender in the shorter area of the field. Per ESPN Analytics, London’s open score ranked 58th last season and 80th in YAC.
The next guy I was concerned about was DeVonta Smith. I cited that his expected fantasy points per game in 2022 (WR28) hardly matched his 2023 ADP as a backend fantasy WR1. Like Olave, Smith did not meet his lofty fantasy WR1 expectations finishing as the WR20 overall (scored the same amount of points as Olave) and 21st in points per game. WR32 in expected fantasy points per game.
And like in 2022, Smith’s 2023 production was boosted by teammate injuries around him. Before Week 11, Smith was the WR25 overall, averaging 10.9 points per game (WR29). Nowhere close to fantasy WR1 numbers.
So, I felt like my analysis of Smith was spot on heading into the 2023 season. When his teammates were healthy, he wasn’t a strong ROI selection.
Just four top-12 finishes (one more than in 2022). Per the FantasyPros consensus projections, Smith is WR18 in half-PPR. The market has appropriately adjusted Smith’s price as the WR23 in ADP.
Again, Smith’s talent is undeniable, but it’s clear that for him to be a fantasy WR1, somebody else in the Eagles passing game must take a step back. He’s a super high-floor player who should not be over-drafted, given the injury dependence on the ceiling. Smith finished third in WR snaps played and first WR snap rate in 2023 (96%). When you play every single offensive play (or close to it), it’s hard to fail when you have Smith’s abilities. So, it’s hard to imagine him being a true “bust” target, given his new price as a low-end fantasy WR2. Still, a WR23 price tag in Round 3 is hardly an exciting selection, especially when it’s attached to injury contingents.
Keep in mind – especially in half-PPR – where Smith falls in the TD pecking order in Philadelphia. A.J. Brown posted the third-highest red-zone target rate last season with 18 red-zone targets. He tripled Smith’s red-zone targets. We know that Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley will get there in some fashion. So where does that leave Smith?
Collins was WR21 in expected fantasy points per game. He also finished with the highest rate of points scored over expectation. Flowers (WR42), Pickens (WR46) and Reed (WR49) saw underwhelming expected points per game outputs in 2023. Again, Reed seems like the most concerning case, given he might face more competition next season if Christian Watson is healthy. Flowers will take on a healthy Andrews for target competition, presumably for 17 games. Although he flashed a top-10 fantasy ceiling as a rookie in the games that Andrews missed. Still, it is a bit perplexing why Flowers goes ahead of Andrews in most drafts. Pickens’ expected usage is most likely to change for the better, given the departure of Diontae Johnson and “upgrades” at QB/OC.
Similar to Smith, I also felt like Tee Higgins was overvalued last season based on just simply looking at splits with Ja’Marr Chase on and off the field. Higgins’ value was dramatically boosted when Chase missed time. He looked much more like a WR2 when Chase was healthy, yet he was drafted at the backend of the fantasy WR1 range.
If a player’s ADP is strongly tied to boosted production due to a teammate’s injury, it’s a signal that they might be overvalued. Higgins was the WR41 in expected fantasy points per game in 2022. He is back to WR29 in 2024 ADP. I’m still not in love with the price, but I love the Bengals passing game this season with a healthy Joe Burrow. And when you view Higgins’ body of work (and the fact he was drafted as fringe WR1 last season with no hesitation), he’s slated for a bounce-back.
His up-and-down play resulted in a 50% bust rate compared to his 18% bust rate in 2022. Ergo, 2023 stands out as a complete outlier for the 25-year-old WR, who will likely play his last season for the Bengals after failing to reach a long-term deal. The command of air yards (37%) Higgins showed suggests he is still a dominant downfield receiver, as are the 4 games where he scored 20-plus fantasy points. Buy the injury discount for a player looking to hit the open market in 2025.
The contract “hold out” for Chase could end up being a major boost for Higgins.
I discussed Terry McLaurin at length as a potential bust candidate, as he was drafted as the WR22 in 2023. I was ultimately proven correct with TMC as he finished outside the top 40 WRs in points per game and WR32 overall.
I didn’t feel like my analysis was overly complex, either. There were major question marks at quarterback for the Washington Commanders, making me skeptical McLaurin had room to grow from his locked-and-loaded annual fantasy WR2 status. TMC’s got one top-15 season on his resume through five seasons. Jayden Daniels truly must be “that” guy for McLaurin to leap into the tier we think his talent warrants. Over the last three seasons, McLaurin ranks 20th – one spot below CeeDee Lamb – in ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR YAC model.
Speaking of Pittman, seems crazy to think he was going WELL outside the top-30 WRs last season, despite his projection as the No.1 WR on the Colts. That somewhat raises eyebrows. Looking at this current ADP landscape, the clearest WR1s on teams going outside the top 30 WRs include McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson, and Courtland Sutton.
Pittman’s detractors last season – including myself- cited the lack of pass-game volume in a run-heavy Colts offense heralded by then-rookie QB Anthony Richardson. He had major question marks as a passer, and rookie QBs don’t tend to support much fantasy success for their WRs. But even when veteran Gardner Minshew played last season, he wasn’t good. 33rd in PFF passing grade, 28th in passer rating, 27th in yards per attempt and 33rd in completion rate. And that still didn’t stop Pittman from having a GREAT season in his 4th-year en route to a fat payday.
Over the last three seasons, Pittman ranks 18th in receiving yards (3,159, 64.5 per game), seventh in catches (296), and seventh in targets (426).
The 14 TDs (24th) are what’s killing him. He’s averaged 104 catches per year in the last two seasons (5th).
I also cited Alec Pierce and Josh Downs as potential “threats” to Pittman’s alpha target share.
All in all, I don’t think this analysis was awful, and it could have played out very differently had Richardson not gotten hurt. In the two games Pittman played with Richardson in full, he had 11 targets and five targets. That five-target game tied his low on the season.
But I’m burying the lede here because Pittman’s price had become so overly discounted because of the “run-heavy” narrative.
I think that’s where drafters made a mistake because of the discount Pittman was given on draft day. Although he isn’t listed in the top 30 WRs in ADP, George Pickens‘ ADP is being held in check because of the Arthur Smith concerns, etc. The Chargers’ offensive pieces might be a better representation of the overconfidence by the market “fading” a run-heavy offense.
But Pickens is so clearly in a Year 3 breakout spot after the team moved on from Diontae Johnson. If the Steelers had hired anybody but Smith as their OC, Pickens would likely be going one round higher.
But Pittman was far from the worst “fade” at WR from me. It was Mike Evans who was drafted as the WR33 last season. He finished WR5 in half-PPR. Evans was buried and was essentially 2023’s version of 2022’s Josh Jacobs – a consensus bust that made you pay for not taking him. His price last season was so egregious that there’s a certain pocket of people who don’t believe it’s even happened.
Based on Mike Evans being half the responses, I’m convinced there’s a Mandela effect for a certain group of people that don’t remember Mike Evans’ 2023 ADP as the WR32 lol https://t.co/7vQQNbNuCZ
What frustrates me the most about Evans is that I wasn’t even anti-Baker Mayfield last season. I just liked Godwin more than Evans. Woof.
It brings me back to the point about Evans that I mentioned earlier. He was a bust in 2022, and the fantasy football drafting complex used that to fade him in 2023. But as I outlined, finding these one-year busts (that look more like outliers) are prime targets to rebound the following season. I even mentioned in the Evans fade that he would most likely beat his ADP and post his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season. Well, I was at least correct about that.
So, when we look at the WR landscape outside the top 30 WRs, who is a player that looks like at least a lock to beat their ADP? Not breaking out or melting faces, etc. Just beat their ADP. Who would you push your chips on?
Well, one for me is obvious – Evans’ teammate, Chris Godwin. Maybe I was just one year too early. The other WRs are Calvin Ridley and/or DeAndre Hopkins. Both are in the WR3/4 fringe. Ridley has never finished worse than WR25 in a healthy season. Hopkins has never finished worse than WR47 since his rookie season. And even during his last two seasons in Arizona – played essentially two half seasons – Hopkins was still WR47 and WR43. His half-season stats are close to where his ADP lies.
Does Will Levis present risks? Of course. But it’s more than baked into both the cost of Ridley and Hopkins. And even though I can’t confidently say whether Levis will be a home run in 2024 – I caution toward him not – his chaotic style of play in an offense I feel strongly will be above average in passing attempts invites fantasy upside for both Ridley and Hopkins. And just imagine if one of these guys missed time. Targets would be funneled their way.
Ridley killed drafters last season. And then he got a QB downgrade. Kind of like Evans, right? But what did last year teach me? Take shots on both guys between Ridley and Hopkins. And continue to draft Godwin at all costs.
Evans was the last highly-ranked WR I talked about as a bust last season, but I do think it’s worth mentioning the other late-round WR I was steering clear of. These guys were not “busts” per se, but they are still wasted picks. So even though it’s easy to say, “Well, he’s free,” you are missing out on BETTER picks you should be making instead.
For example, Kadarius Toney was an easy fade for me last season. He was drafted as a top-50 WR despite zero ability shown to play a full-time role away from just gadget plays. He missed so much time with injuries and no actual production to show for a top-50 WR ADP.
I said in last year’s article to draft Deonte Harty with your final pick instead. He was free. They were both horrible. But the Harty pick hurt you WAY less than Toney.
So don’t be fooled by the “free” price tag once we get outside the top 40 WRs. Every pick is precious. Don’t blow it on just straight-up bad picks.
I also cited Michael Thomas as another horrible pick in the WR40s range. Guys don’t get healthier as they deal with injuries and continue to miss games. Again, with Thomas, it was the extrapolation of the three games he did play in 2022 (which were mostly TD-driven) despite poor yards per route run.
Hate to be this harsh, but why isn’t Cooper Kupp just the next version of Thomas? Peaks as the WR1 and never gets there again as he battles injuries and Father Time. The Thomas milk was spoiled. I pleaded for those to not go back. The Kupp milk is smelling pretty funky.
Looking in the WR40-50 range the worst potential picks in my estimations based on lessons we learned from Toney and Thomas: Jameson Williams (where are his targets/opportunities coming from?), Khalil Shakir (potential part-time role against a healthy Curtis Samuel) and Mike Williams (older WR on a new team coming off major knee injury).
Keep in mind that as the Lions WR2 last season, Josh Reynolds was the WR53. A lot of offseason hype for Jamo, when a path to actual production seems easier said than done. Williams reaching that ‘next level’ for the Lions offense – attached to a poor deep ball passer in Jared Goff nonetheless – doesn’t always mean fantasy production will follow.
Honorable mentions include Jordan Addison (potential DUI suspension, TD regression, bad QB play, also dealing with an ankle injury) and 2nd-round rookie pick for Buffalo, Keon Coleman (polarizing prospect that will have everything thrown at it from the get-go as an outside receiver).
A little bit further down the WR ranks, the other easy fades include Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (also featured on my players to avoid video), who is reportedly behind Ladd McConkey, Joshua Palmer, and D.J. Chark on the roster after a horrible rookie season. Friends don’t let friends draft QJ.
That wraps up recapping the full “fade” list from 2023, but I also listed plenty of “buyer beware” candidates that we need to continue our retrospective on.
Of course, just like how I face-planted with Dak Prescott as a QB to fade, I had some concerns about CeeDee Lamb entering the 2023 season. WOOF. But hopefully, we can learn from my pre-draft analysis of Lamb and use it for better success in the future.
Essentially, I felt that he was very good but not at the elite level quite yet. And maybe this was completely wrong on my part, given his 29% target share (elite) from 2022. Looking back at least this season to the alpha target share leaders, the players who stick out who still may not have their true fantasy ceiling include Michael Pittman Jr. and Garrett Wilson.
Pittman was ninth in red-zone targets last season, and Wilson ranked tenth. Both guys scored the lowest amount of TDs based on their red-zone usage.
And during the start of the 2023 season, when Lamb came out of the gates sluggishly, I felt justified with my soft fade of Lamb. But then Dallas shifted its entire offensive identity to Lamb, and he buried me.
I’ve talked about how red-zone targets are the easiest path to a WR1 overall season, as Lamb led the NFL in this category in 2023. He was also heavily involved from the slot, which is another easy way for WRs to rack up fantasy points as full-time players. Full-time WRs that play inside and outside are cheat codes.
Lamb went from very good to great. And I didn’t recognize that enough for a player of Lamb’s caliber. I even suggested Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup were “threats.” Weakness. I said, and I quote, “Dak won’t hyper-target Lamb with other weapons in the offense.”
Horrific.
And my last part of the Lamb fade related to McCarthy calling plays instead of Kellen Moore. I explained this poor process in the QBs to avoid piece.
My last note on Lamb was that his ADP was the same in 2022 as it was in 2023: ADP WR6. A spot recognized for that NEXT tier of fantasy WR. And sure, Lamb got boosted because Hill, Chase, Jefferson had injuries, etc. But being in this range for so long without having that marquee season means something. A player on the cusp of a special season. Especially for a player that’s still ascending (or at an age that would suggest the ceiling has met to be met).
Guys that profile similarly to this for 2024 include A.J. Brown (WR6 ADP in 2023/2024) and Garrett Wilson (WR8 ADP in 2023/2024). Is 2024 AJB WR1 SZN?
Davante Adams also found himself in the “buyer beware” section of last year’s article. The main concern was how he would “gel” with his new quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. Long story short: It did not go well. If you have tuned into the new Netflix series “Receiver,” you can see the immense frustration coming from Adams when Garoppolo was his QB. It got so bad that the team had to bench Jimmy G (nickname should be Captain Hospital Ball) just to keep Adams in the building.
Adams finished the season as the WR11 in total points (slightly below his 2023 ADP). But he was only the WR18 in points per game (12.6) around guys like Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper and Michael Pittman Jr. His points per game dropped from 16.8 in 2022 (17.7 in 2021).
Fast forward to 2024, and we have similar QB concerns for Adams, who will be 32 in December. Early reports indicate that Aidan O’Connell is in the driver’s seat to be the QB1, but neither was overly impressive during OTAs. Whether AOC holds the job into the regular season remains to be seen. But note that whichever QB is benefitting Adams the most will be the one most likely under center. Given that O’Connell spent last season with Adams, fantasy managers should prefer it to stay that way.
O’Connell started 10 games last season. Adams was the WR15 in points per game in his starts (13.0) but the WR4 in expected fantasy points per game. His ADP as the WR10 is in between his production and usage. It’s also his WR projection.
But over O’Connell’s last five games, those numbers increased to 14.8 points per game as the WR4 (again) in expected points per game (17.5 points per game).
Alas, AOC was unable to earn the starting QB job. Gardner Minshew will start. He hyper-targeted Pittman last season, but that was in a more pass-centric offense. Pittman also didn’t score TDs. Once Minshew was announced the starter, I felt like I needed to move Adams down.
Still it’s a tough situation to gauge for Adams’ 2024 projection. It’s potentially Adams’ last year with the franchise, given they have an “out” in his contract at the end of the season.
I hate to keep citing the “Receiver” show on Netflix, but it shows a side of Adams that could be problematic down the road if Las Vegas’ offense struggles with its current quarterback room. Spoiler for those who haven’t tuned in: The Raiders’ strong finish to the season coincided with their strong finish under their interim (now official) head coach, Antonio Pierce.
But at the end of the day, every All-Pro receiver wants to win. And if things don’t start well, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him force his way out of the building (Aaron Rodgers, can I move to New York?).
The coaching staff “should” be better with Pierce calling the shots. And the new OC hire—even though it was their third option—was a definite nod at pleasing Adams, given the receiver’s connection to Luke Getsy during their time in Green Bay.
I find it difficult to project Adams not for alpha usage in 2024. He’s so good in the red zone – second in red-zone targets last season – that it’s hard to bet against him failing as a low-end fantasy WR1/high-end fantasy WR2, even if there is shoddy QB play.
My actual concern seems to be more tied to any potential off-the-field antics if the Raiders are dumpster fire or struggle early on.
Given everything I’ve outlined, Adams is probably just a fine pick at his ADP—not a smash and not a bust, from what I have determined. Like I said, he would have to implode to hurt you, and that doesn’t seem as likely given the Raiders’ opening schedule as some favorable matchups to start the season.
I would scoop him up if he falls in drafts. But he feels more like a double than a home-run swing compared to other WRs at the end of Round 1 and the start of Round 2 between Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, and Drake London. Those are the “projected breakouts” that also carry their share of risk without the proven production that Adams possesses. Or, as I am beginning to call it, the “WR Minefield,” a play on words to the cleverly coined “RB Deadzone.”
Think about it like this. If that top-4 were ALL to lose their current starting QBs, who would you want to draft? Adams is the easy answer.
Also, would opt for the top RBs per ADP before taking the plunge on Adams. I also prefer both 49ers WRs, and Mike Evans just seems like a similar bet without as much risk involved.
For the praise I have given Adams, his fantasy points per game have decreased for three straight seasons. Don’t think it’s cliff time for Adams yet. But he’s way past the age apex.
I had Garrett Wilson in the buyer-beware column last season, and I turned out to be right. Although the Aaron Rodgers injury made it easy, I think my process of sounding some alarm bells was solid. It was a new situation, and Rodgers was coming off a down year playing for a new team.
So, it brings up the question: isn’t Wilson in the same situation as last year? Well, yes and no. We have another full offseason of Wilson working together with Rodgers. And Wilson showed that even with the stone-cold worst Jets quarterback play, he could be semi-productive. I’m in the camp along with the market that even if this version of Rodgers is no MVP, it’s still a dramatically better situation for Wilson. I wrote before last season – before Wilson’s Year 2 when he commanded nearly 170 targets – that all the Jets WR needed was just average accuracy throwing the ball. And, of course, he “earned” a 58% catchable target rate and ranked 48th out of 57 qualifying WRs with at least 75 targets last season.
Wilson is so clearly a positive TD regression candidate when it comes to TDs as well. When you catch 90-plus balls and go for nearly 1100 yards, you should be scoring more than three or four TDs.
Nobody can be quite sure what the 2023 version of Wilson’s stat line would have been had Rodgers not torn his Achilles. The absolute rope that Wilson hauled in from Rodgers in the red zone during the third preseason game…absolute chills.
Wilson’s price has increased since last season into Round 1, and I think that has a lot to do with his talent. And given that the Jets are so much more likely to be a functioning offense this year, I’m buying.
I’ve brought up Waddle as a bust from last year, and I am glad to have preached some caution toward drafting him as the WR11 in the 2023 ADP. It’s funny, though, as one of my main reasons was his poor splits without Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup. Tua played the whole season, and Waddle busted due to his injuries and lack of TDs. Yet, he was still WR23 in points per game (11.6)—identical to Olave and DeVonta Smith.
Waddle’s too talented and efficient to be held to just four touchdowns on a Dolphins offense that was third in offensive touchdowns per game in 2023. However, a word to the wise is that he hasn’t shown a lot of red-zone usage since Mike McDaniel arrived in Miami. That’s just something to keep in mind for over-projecting WRs to score TDs if they don’t possess the requisite red-zone role.
But everything else about Waddle SCREAMS that a major bounce-back is on deck. Despite the “down” season in 2023, Waddle still ranks 10th in receiving yards (2,370) and receiving yards per game over the last two seasons (76.5).
Deciphering these crowded WR rooms is a key part of avoiding WR busts. Last year, Seattle boasted a puzzling WR trio, with DK Metcalf at the top as the WR15. He finished as WR16 (20th in points per game). The big-bodied WR wasn’t a bad selection by any means, but he hardly delivered the upside managers were hoping for.
I was betting that his TD total would decide his fate. But his eight scores still weren’t enough to get him over the hump because he caught the fewest amount of passes and saw the fewest amount of targets since 2019. Why? The answer is obvious. The competition was from both JSN and Tyler Lockett, with Geno Smith not being as good in his second year as the full-time starter.
Keep this in mind when we take a closer look at the two teams with the three highest-priced WR trios between the Texans and Bears (and Seattle again).
Finally, time for the big enchilada. Calvin Ridley. The human hype piece was set up to fail with the most unrealistic expectations placed on him.
I’ve already discussed the fade of the “projected WR breakout,” so there’s no need to delve into that further. But one key aspect of Ridley’s 2023 projection that was overlooked was that he was going to face fierce target competition for the first time in his career.
On a new team, Ridley has plenty of risk. But it’s more than baked into his WR35 ADP.
Christian Watson was a bust in 2023, and it wasn’t related to Jordan Love at all. Love was the reason to be bearish on Watson’s Year 2 upside, but the hamstring injuries had the final say. There’s not much to take away from Watson aside from being a boom-or-bust receiver that, unfortunately, busted as they can do. And if his hamstrings aren’t corrected in 2024, he will flame out yet again.
Marquise Brown was a risky pick for similar QB concerns, although the Cardinals’ under-center situation was beyond repair without Kyler Murray. And Brown had already shown zero ability to rise above bad QB play during the 2022 season. It makes one think that with Patrick Mahomes as his new QB, what Brown could achieve in the Chiefs offense, especially with his price slightly cheaper than last season, despite being on a Murray-less Cardinals passing game. However the injuries with Brown, and fierce competition in the Chiefs’ WR room raise major eyebrows about how consistent Brown can be. After he got hurt in the first week of the preseason, I moved him down my rankings substantially.
And that brings us to one of the most polarizing WRs in 2024: George Pickens. Because, oh no. He plays in a projected “run-heavy” offense orchestrated by fantasy football’s public enemy No. 1, Arthur Smith.
But given Pickens’ ADP as the WR27, it’s being considered. I thought Pickens played well above expectation last year in an offense with horrible quarterback play. He stepped up to the plate when Diontae Johnson missed time. He took a massive step forward in his second season without the aid of a QB. I thought Pickens’ biggest issue as a rookie was his target competition. DJ missed time in Pickens’ second season – as did Pat Freiermuth – and he delivered. And I hate to say that I predicted this, but I did note in last year’s guide, “Keep in mind that the Steelers were the No. 1 team in the fewest games lost due to injury last season per Football Outsiders [2022]. Ergo, they are likely to get hit by more injuries in 2023. Freiermuth has three documented concussions in the NFL. Johnson is a volume receiver, which means he takes on a lot of hits.”
I’m not a doctor. Just a slave to regression to the mean.
Enter 2024, and now Johnson has been completely removed from the offense. At the same time, Pickens has acquired an obvious QB upgrade that mitigates the more run-heavy nature of the offense. We saw both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields last season fuel extremely productive seasons for their respective No. 1 WRs (D.J. Moore and Courtland Sutton).
Pickens has the same upside as WRs being drafted in Rounds 2 and 3. During the first five weeks of the 2023 season with Johnson sidelined, Pickens was the WR13 in fantasy, averaging 12.8 points per game (19th). He recorded a 43% air yards share and a 24% target share during that span. He also averaged nearly 80 receiving yards per game. In four games with Mason Rudolph, Pickens averaged a 24% target share, 44% air yards share, 14.6 fantasy points (backend fantasy WR1 numbers), and nearly 100 receiving yards per game.
Pickens’ constant ascension over the past two seasons with flashes of top-12 (three top-6 finishes last year) upside suggests he is on the cusp of a true third-year breakout that we see annually for WRs selected in the middle rounds. We’ve heard almost nothing about any other Steelers WR stepping up behind Pickens.
The run-heavy nature of an Arthur Smith offense is the only scenario that could doom Pickens’ breakout, but it’s baked into his price at the end of Round 4 and the start of Round 5.
We saw in Atlanta’s offense under Smith that No.1 WR Drake London commands an extremely high target share. Unlike London, Pickens’ price has been held in check, dramatically increasing his odds of a true third-year breakout. Again, he was WR33 this past year in points per game and WR23 overall in half-point scoring.
The last player I discussed was Rashod Bateman. Again, he is another WR in the WR40-50 range, which I felt was slightly overrated, given that he looked more like a small sample-size trap. Due to injuries, he never had a full-time role, and the team added more WRs due to his lack of availability.
I mentioned this earlier, but the guys that best fit that archetype in Bateman’s draft range from last season include Jameson Williams, Khalil Shakir and Mike Williams.
But as I brought up in a recent ADP Risers and Fallers podcast. All the reasons we liked Bateman last season in that WR40-50 range are still there, if not better. He is no longer rehabbing an injury ahead of the season. And he has the clear path to the No. 2 WR role after the team elected not to bring back Odell Beckham Jr. Instead, they signed Bateman to an extension. He’s not even 25 years old yet. Bateman is less than a year older than Zay Flowers. WR79 ADP is a great value.
Other Thoughts
As a content creator in this “space,” sometimes I can feel pressure to completely dismiss a player after being wrong about one season, fearing the “here we go again” type of backlash.
My bullish stance on Courtland Sutton in 2022 to utter failure made me “hate” him in 2023. And that was malpractice on my part. I felt like I couldn’t be “in” on Sutton on any price, after swinging so hard for him the year prior. But it’s a brand-new season. And Sutton was such an obvious TD regression candidate and was drafted as the WR40. Don’t let your emotions get the way. Because as somebody who was tagged in every single Courtland Sutton TD from 2023 (10 to be precise, the same as his previous three seasons combined) I’d rather be a year too early, than a year too late.
By no coincidence, I’ve tried to discuss the top WRs attached to my potential bust QBs. Makes sense intuitively as a quarterback that busts will most likely bring his WRs down with him. But I do want to stress that this changes slightly based on the scoring format. Half-PPR is a bigger hurdle to overcome because you need TDs more. And touchdowns come because of high passing efficiency. In PPR formats, WRs can survive “bad QB play” easier, assuming they are commanding a boatload of targets and receptions.
We are already 10,000 words in and still haven’t technically made the list of bust WRs for the 2024 season. I’ve brought up a ton of topics regarding identifying WR busts throughout this piece, so I’d bet that you have some idea where I am leaning with how I feel about some players heading into this season. So, without further ado, I’ll reveal the final bust and WR buyer beware list with some brief analysis to tie a bow.
You came for a WRs to avoid the article. But what you got was an entire magnum opus on the WR position as a whole. My editors must love me.
Was Drake London a bust in 2023? Yes. He was drafted as a backend fantasy WR2 just to finish outside the top 40. Those that faded the Falcons in 2023 cited how run-heavy they would be, and that was correct. I claimed a fantasy WR3 finish would be the floor for London, and even Arthur Smith found a way to go lower.
London’s situation is different now, but the projected “fade” of an offense based on being overly run-heavy isn’t the strongest argument. Even though fantasy managers were burned to a crisp by Smith in Atlanta, I’ve been burned plenty of times for fading a WR in a “run-heavy” offense to no avail. So many changes in a season with injuries and game plans that dictate how teams can deploy their run/pass splits. Therefore, instead of drafting players based on how often their teams project to pass or throw, which can vary weekly based on the game script, I want to place my bets on the actual talent that the WR possesses. Is this a foolproof strategy? No. But I feel like I can better predict whether I think a WR is talented versus exactly how many times a team will be “run-heavy” on a week-to-week basis.
I’d be more concerned about whether the offense is just good or bad overall. You’ll be right more often than not to invest in the good offenses, regardless of whether they accrue their points through run or pass.
As for London’s prospects for 2024, it’s obvious that he is in for a career year statically. But will that be enough to pay off his insanely high ADP? I am not so sure. I feel like I have laid out a very good case against chasing the steam of the “highest projected breakout receiver.” Simply put, it has not been a profitable one. London’s fantasy outlook needs to be tempered by historical trends suggesting caution with hyped breakout candidates. If the price changes or differs in home leagues, then yes, I will surely be interested in London. Because this “fade” on London has less to do with the player and more to do with the price. He’s at the very top of a long tier of WRs that goes from the end of Round 1 to Round 3. Plenty of strong upside cases for all the WRs in what I call the”WR Minefield” because it’s so projection/breakout-based. And when those breakouts don’t hit…well, it’s called a minefield for a reason.
From my point of view, I think there are better ways to invest in the Falcons offense than with London. I also believe London’s status as the true “alpha” in this offense is being overstated. Kyle Pitts will be 100% healthy, as will Darnell Mooney, two players who both have 1,000-yard campaigns on their resumes. Something that London has still yet to achieve two years into the league. If he doesn’t emerge as the No. 1 target in the red zone (remains to be seen), London will be fighting an uphill battle to hit his breakout potential, even if he sets career highs across the board.
Nico Collins‘ third-year breakout was truly remarkable. The former Michigan product had glimpses of potential in his first two seasons, but being paired with rookie C.J. Stroud unlocked his fantasy ceiling. He was a Y-A-C God. Collins totaled nearly 1500 receiving yards with just 1,370 air yards. 641 of his yards came after the catch. He also posted a 24% target share. His 3.11 yards per route run ranked second among all WRs. Only three other players have accomplished this feat since 2017 – Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Julio Jones. Collins averaged 14.6 points per game in 17 games played and 15.7 points per game in 15 games played alongside Stroud.
The one aspect that fantasy football drafters need to be wary of is how much above expectation Collins performed. In true Kyle Shanahan offensive-scheme WR fashion, only Deebo Samuel scored more points above expectation than Collins did in 2023. There will be some regression in the form of some of his big plays not carrying over yearly.
Collins was “only” the WR21 in expected fantasy points per game. And with the arrival of Stefon Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell (both of whom are drafted after Collins), there should be some concern about investing too heavily in Collins amid more target competition he did not face last season. Dell out-gained Nico Collins despite similar target shares in their last four games played together.
However, despite the arrival of Diggs impacting his target share, Collins’ efficiency should at least remain high with another threat on the field to divert defensive attention. The fourth-year WR finished third in fantasy points per snap in 2023, trailing only Lamb/Hill. He’s got an extremely high ceiling, but his consensus projection raises some more red flags. In Mike Clay’s ESPN WR projections, Collins is WR13 – below his ADP. The FantasyPros projections have Collins as the Texans WR and the WR12 – the same as Mike Evans. But no projection is more bearish on Collins than PlayerProfiler.com, citing him as the WR26, which presents his downside case in a crowded Texans WR room.
I think the market is overrating Collins’ ability to command a high target share in this offense with Diggs and Dell. And they are overrating his production when his numbers were boosted last season due to teammate injuries. The way I see it, Collins’ ADP is a bet on his repeating unsustainable efficiency amid high-end target competition. If you want to make that bet…why not just draft Jaylen Waddle or Brandon Aiyuk instead? Both guys are shown the ability for multiple seasons to not only be efficient but also do it while facing top-tier target competition. Those guys carry similar upside cases, in my opinion, while offering a much higher floor, given the years of proven production.
Collins was the perfect storm last season as a free WR, and I am happy to admit I was “in” on him. But I also know that lightning never strikes twice in the same place. Sorry, Nico.
Still, for those who want to take on the home-run swing on Collins, just be prepared to sell high when you get the chance. Because that’s naturally the take that any analyst will have after fading a WR during the draft season to see him start well during the first few weeks of the season. Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.
I wrote up Deebo Samuel in the guide last season, as he was a popular “bust” candidate across big fantasy football. But his splits with rookie Brock Purdy were solid, and we were just one year removed from a 1,400-yard campaign. He was a classic case of a player who busted one year, and that clouded the market’s feelings on him the following season (a la Mike Evans in 2023).
I said, “Don’t let Samuel’s disappointing 2022 campaign sway you from drafting him if he falls in drafts.” This is an important lesson to remember. But that was last year, and this is a brand new season, and I don’t feel nearly as confident in Deebo. He performed well above expectation and is currently a very expensive No. 2 WR on his team per ADP.
Samuel finished the year with the most total red zone touches among all WRs. As we project Samuel into 2024, two points need to be strongly considered. First, his injury history is based on how physical of a player he is. Second, he may experience impending TD regression, given he scored more fantasy points above expectation than any other WR from Weeks 1-17. He was the WR26 in expected points per game. His rushing production is difficult to rely on year-to-year (especially how it is highly correlated to additional TDs), and Brandon Aiyuk is continuing his ascent into the top-tier WR conversation, after he just got a monster contract extension from the 49ers after a lengthy hold out. Not to mention, Samuel’s lack of separation skills showed up at the worst time during the Super Bowl. That lack of production likely influenced the 49ers’ selection of 1st-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall, yet another weapon that could hinder Samuel’s production.
The elephant in the room that has caused some fluctuation in Samuel’s ranking has been the entire Aiyuk ordeal. I had to move Samuel up at some point, as he seemed primed for a fast start with Aiyuk out for so long. The Aiyuk holdout boosted Samuels’ ADP higher and well ahead of Aiyuk.
However, I was going against my better judgement. We have “known” about Aiyuk being a potential trade candidate since the draft. But considering that the draft had already passed, the odds that Aiyuk was going to be dealt to another team were always minimal. He requested a trade because it’s the only card he can pull in this situation. And we know that the new CBA makes it almost impossible for players to hold out without severe repercussions. Samuel requested a trade two years ago and then got paid. JT and Lamar Jackson last year “requested” trades. Got paid. Aiyuk’s either going to be a 49er or be traded to a team that sells the farm for him. And in that latter case, he’s seeing 150-plus targets. Win. Win.
But that was then, and this is now. I still want to recognize that I have kept Samuel in a drafting range for the early season production he can provide. The camp reports have raved about Samuel, and I expect him to be productive while healthy early on. With the 49ers losing Elijah Mitchell, we could see more carries for Samuel.
But Deebo is still not without his warts as I have outlined. A sell high player for me.
As for Aiyuk, I prefer him straight up. Having just signed his deal, I don’t think his ADP will recover from the contract dip. He’s WR17 and I had him ranked as WR10 before all the contract nonsense came into play. But I’d be lying if I didn’t have concerns about all his time missed. Last year, Aiyuk was tearing up camp and broke out as a result. After missing the entire offseason, we could see a sluggish start. Don’t love that. So while Samuel looks better as the draft-day target for early-season production, I do think that eventually Aiyuk will get up to speed and be worthy of his Round 3 ADP. A “buy-low target” for Week 1 if you didn’t take the plunge during the contract dispute.
A question that is worth asking is, “Will this WR face fierce target competition for the first time in his career this season?” Especially when related to some of these more crowded WR rooms between the Bears/Texans. Nico Collins went from a mid-Round 2 pick in March’s best ball drafts to a slightly later mid-Round 2 pick after the team traded for Stefon Diggs. The most competition D.J. Moore has faced was in the form of Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel back in 2020.
Is the market overvaluing the odds that both Collins and Moore each walk into massive target shares this season? And better yet, what happens if it doesn’t happen in Week 1? You’ll get panicked managers.
Specifically, in the case of Moore with the Bears, he might be in for a rude awakening fending off targets from Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Over three years, while Mike Williams played alongside Allen from 2021-2023, Williams averaged fantasy WR3 numbers at best. Williams’ boom-or-bust profile isn’t too dissimilar to what we saw from Moore last year. No doubt Moore will have his weeks with his skill set. But that’s why he is the perfect “sell high” player every season after he posts a spike week in a favorable matchup. And he’s the prototypical bust as the No. 1 Bears WR in ADP that you want to steer away from.
Last year’s numbers were extremely boom-or-bust and were based heavily on games with Justin Fields in the lineup. Fantasy managers need to adjust expectations with Fields replaced by rookie Caleb Williams, who will likely hinder Moore’s fantasy upside in 2024 based on what we typically see from rookie QBs. As will the addition of a target machine, Keenan Allen, and the 9th overall pick in this year’s draft, Rome Odunze. Moore likely won’t see the same type of target volume he saw in 2023 due to the target squeeze from the other high-caliber WRs.
His only saving grace is that as the team’s highest-paid WR, he won’t ever come off the field. He will be there in 2 WR sets and 3 WR sets. Also his skill set as both a downfield threat and YAC player give him the ability to make up production in a target squeeze. Moore’s also objectively good.
Moore is the classic case of a player that busted in 2022 just to be slept on a 2023 breakout the following season. But everything about his situation has changed for the worse heading into 2024. His ADP is the same as it was last season as the WR20. And when you view Moore’s WR6 finish from last season compared to the rest of his five-year career, it’s not hard to view it as an outlier. You are so much better off waiting to take Allen or Odunze later.
I love Odunze at his cost as a top-10 real-life NFL draft pick.
I’m more lukewarm on Allen (WR33 ADP), as I want to recognize he HAS to get the target volume because he won’t win with efficiency at this point in his career. He is going from a super-pass-heavy offense attached to Justin Herbert to a more balanced approach with a rookie QB. But who’s to say he won’t become Williams’ favorite option out of the slot? Especially with former Chargers WR coach Chris Beatty coming over from LA to join forces with Allen in Chicago.
Still, I was not thrilled with Allen during the preseason or with his preseason usage. As I wrote in my ADP risers and fallers recap, Allen looked all that reported 230 pounds and then some out there on the field. I couldn’t tell much of a difference between him and Gerald Everett‘s body type-wise. Everett saw two targets with first-team offense. Everett is Shane Waldron’s guy, and it seems like he will not be going away anytime soon. Especially with how often Waldron is using 2 TEs instead of 3 WRs (11 personnel) throughout the Bears’ two exhibition games.
I started to get more concerned about Allen compared to Moore. At his age on a new team competing for targets alongside Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. If Allen isn’t completely supplanting Odunze (a top-10 overall pick) in two WR sets for the majority of the season, it could be a long year for him in the Windy City that doesn’t end favorably for Allen managers.
Also, if all I am looking for is cheap target hogs in Allen’s draft range, there are discounted options later. Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson are all better values than Allen.
The Bears WR room is a complicated code to crack, especially because we are relying on a rookie QB to fuel all these guys. In a questionable Shane Waldron offense that loves TEs and has a loaded backfield, I still find myself gravitating toward Odunze as my favorite part. He has the most value to gain as the Bears WR3, and I don’t think it’s crazy to see him continue to grow throughout the season. Allen might start hot, but then fizzle out. Moore has always been up and down as a spiked-week fantasy WR2. All in all, I think Moore is fine at his ADP and will finish close to where he is drafted. He can put up massive weeks that do make him desirable in our weekly scoring game.
Allen, I have the most concerns about because he has to get fed targets. Unless there are major injuries, even 7-8 per week might not be enough. And if we expect Odunze to truly break out as a rookie, it will likely come at the expense of Allen.
Long story short. Draft Odunze. He is the cheapest we will see a rookie real-life top-10 WR get drafted in fantasy football.
Cooper Kupp faced injury challenges throughout the 2023 season, impacting his performance, particularly with a career-low yards per route run. Despite maintaining a 26% target share, he finished as WR27 in points per game in 2023 despite TD-boosted production. In the games that Kupp while healthy alongside Puka Nacua, Kupp averaged 11.9 points per game with five receiving TDs. He went over 100 yards four times but was held under 55 receiving yards in his eight other games. At 31 years old in 2024, concerns linger regarding his ability to return to peak form. In addition to poor yards per route run, Kupp posted the worst YAC/reception of his career (5.3). Get out before things get worse for an aging Kupp. He’s missed an average of six games over the last two seasons. So, although many are forgiving Kupp now that he seems healthy for this upcoming season, we’ve been down this road with Michael Thomas for years. Once the milk is spoiled, it doesn’t UNSPOIL.
And what’s worse is that Kupp’s ADP continues to rise after reports have surfaced citing how healthy he is now. Kupp is up to the WR16 as a second-round pick. And it will probably continue to climb. I’m old enough to remember Thomas looking back to his “old self” last season. I won’t go back.
Keep this in mind. When Kupp was a fantasy WR1 for the Rams….they didn’t have a monster-producing fantasy RB. In 2021 and 2022, no Rams RB finished inside the top 30. So again, I am skeptical that the WR1 overall ceiling even exists for an aging Kupp in this offense that has two RBs that figure to be in the fantasy RB1 conversation depending on which one stays healthy.
The production has yet to fall off, as the Dolphins offense perfectly utilizes Hill to ensure he has no wasted effort as he enters his age-30 season. Hill’s 3,509 receiving yards since arriving in Miami are 400 more than the next closest WR (CeeDee Lamb). I understand if fantasy drafters would want to go for a younger WR (Ja’Marr Chase/Justin Jefferson) instead of Hill in the first half of Round 1. I’m also very big on Jaylen Waddle having a massive season, which could ultimately push Hill slightly down the board compared to last season.
The concerns are obvious. A new QB is likely in the form of a downgrade with Sam Darnold. But Jefferson is the best WR in the league playing in his uber prime. He showed last season that he could still produce with “bad QBs.” In Weeks 15-18, Jefferson was still a clear-cut ALPHA without Kirk Cousins, averaging 18.4 points per game (WR3) and 119 receiving yards per game. The 17-game pace? 128/2,023/8. A 187-target pace would rank inside the 10th all-time and break Jefferson’s 2022 target total of 184.
I believe that with Sam Darnold as the QB1, this Vikings offensive infrastructure/system set up by Kevin O’Connell will fuel arguably the best WR in the NFL. He will be the 100% focal point of the offense and see an absurd amount of volume that could see him surpass 200 targets, given the ambiguity around the availability of T.J. Hockenson (injury) and Jordan Addison (potential suspension/ankle injury). That kind of insane sheer volume can and will mitigate any efficiency concerns from the Vikings QBs. And I, for one, believe the current room is a major upgrade between two first-round QB selections compared to the Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens group from the end of last season. If there’s any WR that could make it work with these Vikings QBs, it’s Jefferson.
When navigating the board in Round 1 to avoid potential busts, Puka Nacua‘s name comes up based on his production being boosted last year without Cooper Kupp on the field. With Kupp healthy in the lineup, Nacua’s fantasy points per game dropped to 12.9 (16th), as he had just three TDs in those 11 contests. Each Rams WR averaged over five catches per game when playing alongside each other, as no team threw more to WRs (72%) than the Rams did in 2023. Nacua had fewer red-zone targets despite playing five more games than Kupp. Injury-boosted production (and, as a result, inflated ADP the following season) and a lack of a key red-zone role create some bust risk with Nacua after a historic rookie season. Nacua was WR13 in points per game after Week 5 onward. If Nacua’s red-zone role grows in Year 2 at the expense of Cooper Kupp and the Rams RB1, his ceiling flirts as a legitimate top-3 fantasy WR (if not the WR1 overall).
But if the Rams’ offense remains status quo, featuring Kupp and the RBs over Nacua, I can easily see him not reaching his Round 1 ADP, especially in half-PPR. I feel much better about A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson as WR options in the range where Nacua is typically drafted. I know this seems like a hedge, given that I also have a massive fade on Cooper Kupp, more so than I have on Nacua. But if a healthy Kupp is out there playing and commanding targets – even if it’s not at the peak of his powers – there’s evidence his presence would not benefit Nacua returning his Round 1 ADP.
As previously mentioned, Kupp’s ADP has been rising, with reports citing how healthy he looks, and maybe it’s true. But it had not been accompanied by a corresponding decline in Nacua’s ADP despite how things played out when they played together last season. It took a preseason knee injury to knock Nacua’s draft stock, although it doesn’t appear to be a major issue.
Still, I also want to cite the sheer volume that Nacua had last season. It was like nothing he had EVER done at the college level when he was constantly plagued by injuries. The Rams WR nearly saw the same amount of volume in his first year with the Rams during his entire four-year career playing college. I feel confident that at least one of the Rams WRs (or Kyren Williams) – in one way or another – will not meet their ADP expectations in 2024. It probably means I should take more shots on the Rams’ cheaper-priced players later in drafts. But all in all, I would rather take a shot at Nacua’s upside and bet on Kupp’s continuous downfall.
Puka Nacua received the most consensus votes as the 2024 WR most likely to bust.
I’ve been dreading writing up Marvin Harrison Jr. as a potential bust candidate. Because the guy is uber-talented. I foreshadowed MHJ as a hot topic among fantasy drafters this season because he is the most expensive rookie WR we have ever seen in fantasy football. He has been placed into a tier of greatness, even before he has set foot on an NFL field. Although I was pumping the breaks on Harrison Jr. early in the offseason before the 2024 NFL Draft, I couldn’t ignore all the great aspects of Harrison’s encouraging outlook in 2024 aside from the talent itself. He’s on an offense that requires an alpha WR with targets available. He has a quarterback that has fueled fantasy success for DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown. And he got the nearly perfect landing spot for a WR drafted fourth overall. Usually, these players are always attached to bad teams, bad QBs, etc. But not in this case.
Unfortunately, this rare occurrence has not gone unnoticed by the majority of fantasy drafters and rankers, pushing up Harrison inside the top-10 WRs and top-15 picks overall. It all looks great. But (of course, there’s a but) it’s the most expensive projection-based pick in 2024 fantasy football drafts. As I have alluded to a myriad of times in this lengthy piece, these kinds of bets are often looked back on as the picks that bust at the highest rate. Are we placing too high of fantasy expectations, setting up Harrison to fail in 2024? We all assume the Harrison Jr. will just step in on Day 1 and be an alpha target earner, but Trey McBride was a tank at the end of last season.
And what about the Cardinals’ offensive identity? After Kyler Murray returned last season, they were minus 7% in pass rate over expectation while also ranking first in several rushing efficiency metrics. The market seems to have zero concerns about Arizona being a run-heavy or slower offense. When Murray returned toward the end of last season, the Cardinals were 23rd in plays per game. Remember, Kilff Kingsbury’s Air Raid has left the desert.
When you consider the average production of a WR who was drafted in the top 10 in the past three drafts, they have averaged 80.8 catches, 1,071 yards, and 6.4 touchdowns as rookies, per the Athletic.
It’s not an unrealistic projection for Harrison in Year 1. It would equate to nearly 184 fantasy points in half-PPR, placing him firmly in the WR2 range. The FantasyPros consensus projections are a bit more generous for Harrison, placing him as the WR10 with 203.3 half-ppr points (1200 yards, 88 catches) and 6.8 TDs. The yards are a big difference, with the catches/TDs pretty inline. But again, he’s just at the very top of that next tier of WR. And it’s solely because he’s a rookie mystery box. His dad also played in the NFL. Maybe you’ve heard of him?
Drafters are betting on Harrison being the next great rookie WR with his super-expensive ADP. But does this make sense from a value proposition?
Yes and no. Let me explain. The second round and third round is FILLED to the brim with this long tier of WRs who all have interesting upside cases (WR Minefield). But it’s not hard to see why some guys won’t pan out or potentially bust entirely in brand-new situations, new target competition, etc. In past seasons, this tier of WRs was going in Rounds 3-4, with RBs still being drafted in Round 2.
But with the shift in WRs going so aggressively in the early rounds, this crop of WRs has been boosted up. Get this. Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s rookie ADP is higher than Justin Jefferson‘s Year 2 ADP AFTER his crazy rookie season. He’s not a great value. But neither are the majority of WRs being drafted in this range. A Reddit user in the r/fantasyfootball described the Round 2 WRs as landmines, and I couldn’t agree more. Love reddit.
You can either pick one of the remaining top RBs between Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley at the top of Round 2. De’Von Achane and Kyren Williams are back-end RB picks in Round 2. But in between, it’s all WRs, and I’d be hard-pressed to be anchored to your drafting site’s ADP. It would be best if you found the WR in this range that you feel best about returning his draft day cost while offering elite upside. For some – and the consensus – it’s Marvin Harrison Jr. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. I’ll happily take the two RBs between JT and Barkley over Harrison and the majority of WRs in this tier (especially in half-PPR).
Again if you want exposure to Harrison but don’t like the price, draft Murray as your QB to exposure to Harrison being an elite talent. Only time will tell whether his talent translates to fantasy production (plenty of real-life talent WRs don’t roll that over into fantasy production) but he will help Murray’s production ten-fold.
And if you want a rookie WR who was drafted inside the top 6 and has a clear path to targets, take Malik Nabers in Round 3/4 instead of Harrison. Not only are you taking on less risk, but you are allowing yourself to benefit MORE from a rookie WR Year 1 smash. The Giants’ WR is the WR24.
And I’d anticipate he’s even cheaper at home league drafts attached to the Giants. He is being drafted closer to his floor, based on the average production we have seen recently from top-10 rookie WR selections over the last three seasons. Who gets more targets in Week 1? Harrison vs. the Buffalo Bills or Nabers vs. the Giants? ADPs suggest it shouldn’t even be close. But somehow, it is.
Round 4
WR Malik Nabers
Chances are he will be cheaper in more home leagues. But he's more than fair game in Rds 3/4.
I know this has been a long-winded breakdown of Harrison’s 2024 outlook, but he’s such a polarizing player, given the circumstances I’ve laid out. Mostly it’s all related to his price because nobody with eyes thinks Harrison won’t have success at the NFL level. But Harrison having success in Year 1 and returning his fantasy ADP as a top-10 WR aren’t the same. We – as in the royal we – are making it extremely difficult for Harrison to be a great fantasy pick in 2024. And given that you can probably get similar WR production in the following rounds (along with the top-10 rookie WR upside between Nabers and Rome Odunze at a fraction of the cost), I’m probably not going to be drafting much of Harrison this season. I don’t hate the player; I hate the ADP.
I do want to touch briefly on Nabers before I close out here on these top rookie WRs. Because his “bust” potential seems pretty obvious with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, etc. But I think the Giants offense will feature Nabers significantly, given the sheer lack of playmakers they have elsewhere. His explosive skillset as a YAC monster should make drafters less concerned about the potential shoddy QB play from the Giants. And besides, if we get anything close to 2022 Daniel Jones – led the NFL in adjusted completion percentage at 80% – Nabers is going to destroy his ADP. And if Lock takes over at QB? Oh, baby, buckle up. Week 5 vs the Commanders will be fun.
He [Diggs] was the WR10 overall, but he averaged just 13 points per game as the WR15 in half-point scoring. And his lackluster finish is what had fantasy football gamers pulling their hair out. From Week 10 onward, Diggs was the WR45 averaging a meager 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. Khalil Shakir had more receiving yards than Diggs over this time frame. This was also right around the time the Bills swapped Joe Brady as their new offensive coordinator as Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10’s loss to the Denver Broncos.
And it’s not like Diggs wasn’t seeing opportunities. On the year, the Bills’ polarizing WR finished just below a 30% target share with over 1,800 air yards. 12th overall in weighted opportunity. Even during the bad finish, Diggs still had a 25% target share and strong route participation at 85%. He just wasn’t efficient. Not good. And this isn’t the first time we have seen Diggs stumble across the finish line. In the last six games of the 2022 season, Diggs was under 10 points per game. Given the Bills massive need for a No. 2 WR to replace Davis who will be a free agent, there is going to be more competition for targets in this offense. And that makes it tough to draft Diggs confidently coming off career-lows across the board entering his age 31 season.
The video was released before Diggs was traded to the Texans, but you get the point. I was overly convinced that Diggs was completely dust. But as I thought more about Diggs’ situation in Buffalo and just how bad his production fell after the coaching change, I believe it was more than Diggs’ declining skill set. There was an overarching offensive philosophy shift that removed Diggs as a featured piece of the Bills’ offense just months before he was sent packing to Houston.
I understand why it’s tough to draft Diggs confidently coming off career lows across the board entering his age 31 season. Even with a second-year C.J. Stroud as his QB, competition from both Tank Dell and Nico Collins could mark the end of Diggs’ alpha WR status in fantasy football. But I think his overall “fall-off” is being overstated. Route-running savants like Diggs, who don’t rely on pure speed to win, tend to age well. And his entire 2023 season (not just the second half) still shows plenty of top-tier WR play.
Currently, Diggs is the WR23 at the Round 3/4 turn in 12-team leagues. And at that price, you are getting a proven elite WR talent in a full-time role with an ascending quarterback. He is getting a fresh start while betting on himself on a contract that is essentially one year.
Diggs hasn’t been worse than WR23 since his second year in the NFL. Before his second-half downfall, Diggs was third in fantasy points behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. He is first in catches (70), fifth in red-zone targets, second in forced missed tackles, and ninth in yards per route run. He was on pace for a career season.
The last two points about Diggs. Before they traded for Diggs, the Texans tried to land Keenan Allen. I can guarantee Allen’s ADP would be much higher than Diggs’ current ADP is now, even with them slotted for the same projected role in Houston’s offense.
A lot has been made with Diggs’ attitude being a reason to shy away from him. But I think his time in Buffalo had just run its course. And it’s very possible he got out of a situation that might get worse with so much turnover on the Bills’ entire roster aside from the QB. Also. I cannot help but compare Diggs’ situation to another diva WR who was traded at 30 years old after a down season where his effort was put in question. His name was Randy Moss. He went from 42-553-3 in 2006 to 98-1493-23 in 2007.
All in all, I don’t think any fantasy drafter should be looking to “fade” this Texans passing game. It could truly be special in Stroud’s second season. But based on the prices, I’m much more comfortable pushing my chips in on Diggs and Tank Dell (WR29) than taking the home run swing on Collins as the favored No. 1 option. Again, if this Texans offense is going to be the “49ers South,” then it might be a different guy that pops off every week. So that’s why I gravitate more towards the value with the Texans WRs going later in drafts. Targeting discounted WR2s has been a tried-and-true approach that has paid dividends in past seasons. And as you’ll find out below, Diggs might be my favorite of the bunch.
Dell feels so underrated. Remember, as a rookie, Dell posted an identical air yards share to Collins at 31% while falling just short in target share at 21%. The undersized WR posted over 1,000 air yards in just 10 games played. In those games, Dell posted again a 21% target share, 33% air yards share, and 14.2 points per game (9th). In the eight games that Collins and Dell played together – each missed a game with injury – the production was nearly identical, with 13.9 points per game for Collins and 14 points per game for Dell. The discounted second-year Texan posted higher rates of top-12 and top-24 finishes (equal in raw finishes). But Collins is always drafted AHEAD of Dell in every draft this year. I like the value of taking the rookie breakout LATER come 2024, presuming he is 100% healthy coming off a broken fibula and gunshot flesh wound (not always a given).
C.J. Stroud absolutely loves Dell; he convinced the front office to draft the Houston product back during the 2023 NFL Draft. And more recently, Stroud selected Dell in his ‘Perfect Offense’ as his slot WR, while opting to leave both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs off the roster. And I understand that this last point about Dell is somewhat anecdotal, but think about the 2021 Ohio State offense Stroud played in at college. Between Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was the most productive? JSN from the slot led the team in targets/yards. Note that Diggs is also expected to see plenty of slot usage in this offense. I think the injury is the bigger concern at play for Dell and would be the reason he fails to produce in 2024. We saw Tony Pollard struggle from a broken leg and not feel himself till halfway through the year. Given that could be attributed to a slow start (along with the target competition from Diggs/Collins), Dell might be much more of a second-half play that you trade for and not draft as a top-30 WR. However, given his active status in the preseason and off-season activities, I am optimistic the injury won’t hold him back. And although Dell doesn’t play all the WR snaps (argument against him), keeping him healthy all year long is very important.
I’ve mentioned that Reed checks off some red flags given his usage, impending TE regression, and potentially boosted production from injuries to teammates. I can’t confidently call him a straight-up bust, given how talented I think Reed is. And his slot role – although not without its flaws – is cemented in the Packers’ offense while all the other WRs are clamoring for routes/opportunities between Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. It’s very possible that Watson/Doubs possess a similar bust risk that Reed does, but it’s just not being recognized because those guys are slightly cheaper.
I was bullish on Reed as a prospect, and he well exceeded expectations. But Reed was dynamite last season and was still the WR31 in points per game. His 2024 ADP is the WR36 around Rounds 5-6. And I usually find myself going in a different direction than Reed in these particular rounds. But reflecting on Reed’s rookie season again, I’m finding myself torn.
He has a super high target rate at 25%, the seventh-highest touch rate despite a 17% overall target share. He averaged just under two yards per route run with 10 total touchdowns scored. He finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his games (12th) and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap.
I can’t help but remember these “concerns” were why we got a discount on Amon-Ra St. Brown after his rookie breakout. Funny enough, they have nearly identical ADPs in Year 2 at 64th overall. Actually Reed is going even LATER at 82nd overall.
So, after further review, I think Reed’s price is already baking in the potential limited role. But what do we see teams do with players going from Year 1 to Year 2? See expanded roles.
Reed was better as a rookie than Flowers and Dell and has a much better shot of leading his team in targets. Yet, he goes after those guys. There’s also no guarantee that Reed stays 100% in the slot (which is usually a good thing anyway for fantasy purposes). He played on the perimeter during his last two years at Michigan State.
