As NFL teams start to report to training camps in the coming days, fantasy football redraft season kicks up a gear and so will the volume of drafters in best ball contests. News comes thick and fast at this time of the offseason and fantasy football average draft position (ADP) will fluctuate much more than it has in recent months. Looking back over the last four weeks of Underdog ADP, these are the biggest fantasy football risers and fallers.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Best Ball Risers
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE) | +27 (154 ADP)
This time last year Demario Douglas was earning rave reports after a good mini-camp and people were questioning if he could be a late-round dart throw. This year the strong camp reports continue to come and it seems possible Douglas could end up being the Patriots’ defacto No. 1 WR in this new-look offense. Douglas, like all Patriots players, struggled through the miserable offense in 2023, but still managed five top-36 weekly finishes in his 13 games, along with averaging 2.2 yards per route, which ranked 28th-best among wide receivers with 70+ targets. We might not want to chase Patriots players too far up the board, but mixing in some exposure to Douglas seems wise.
Demario Douglas killed a guy pic.twitter.com/gLensneCr5
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 11, 2024
Jalen McMillan (WR – TB) | +19 (188 ADP)
The University of Washington produced three top-100 wide receivers in this year’s draft. While Jalen McMillan was the last of the three to be drafted behind Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, McMillian still warrants our attention. The Bucs have talked extensively about moving Chris Godwin back into the slot this year after he averaged a career-low 36% of snaps there in 2023, which might mean McMillan doesn’t get to play in his more natural position. However, it seems clear McMillan will be on the field for 3-WR sets and have the chance to earn a role. At the end of the draft, if you’re looking for correlation or stacks, this makes sense.
Noah Fant (TE – SEA) | +16 (170 ADP)
In previous years, Noah Fant’s route to relevancy was blocked by the Seahawks’ committee approach to the tight end position, but now Will Dissly is with the Chargers and Colby Parkinson is with the Rams, leaving this tight end room firmly in Fant’s control for the first time. Fant has caught over 75% of his targets in each of the last three seasons and simply needs more volume and snaps to be relevant.
We’ve heard a lot about the Seahawks clearing out the TE depth chart around Noah Fant, and they did.
SEA also re-signed Fant to a healthy deal for a TE (2/$21M, $11.5 gtd). Will be 6th best-paid TE this year. A pretty clear commitment to him.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) May 23, 2024
Demarcus Robinson (WR – LAR) | +14 (171 ADP)
The Rams run more 3-WR sets than any other team in the NFL and Demarcus Robinson firmly beat out Tutu Atwell in the competition for that role last year. From Week 12 onwards, Robinson became a firm part of the team’s plans. From Week 13 onwards, Robinson never finished lower than WR29, averaging 15.4 PPR points per game. Unless we get an indication Robinson has fallen out of favor, it makes sense to continue to draft a player who can take advantage of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua seeing more dedicated coverage.
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE) | +7 (125 ADP)
Despite reports Nick Chubb is on track with his recovery, drafters remain pessimistic and are pushing Jerome Ford up draft boards. Ford showed out well enough in his sophomore season, being thrust into a far bigger role than the team likely expected for him, but he wasn’t trusted in a true three-down role with Kareem Hunt brought back. Remember, it was Hunt who saw the majority of red-zone touches with 35 to Ford’s 16. Perhaps the team saw enough to trust Ford more in 2024, but the addition of D’Onta Foreman, who has worked with running backs coach Duce Staley previously in Carolina, could prove problematic.
Best Ball Fallers
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) | -35 (207 ADP)
The biggest riser or faller in the last month is Juwan Johnson and the news of his injury has drafters concerned, particularly after Adam Schefter reported Johnson would have foot surgery and “be out a while”. As Johnson falls down draft boards, there’s potential for him to become undervalued, but drafters will have to be smart in how they build around him.
Juwan Johnson with the saucy Choice route win pic.twitter.com/xnYP8C3xUC
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 12, 2023
Ben Sinnott (TE – WAS) | -12 (176 ADP)
The Commanders failed to address concerns with their offensive line during either free agency or the NFL draft, but they did draft a tight end who is an excellent blocker and can also play at full-back. That’s not typically the type of player we want to draft an awful lot of in best ball, despite our hopes for Jayden Daniels injecting some joy into a stale franchise. Sinnott is a good player, but when you’re competing with Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and fellow rookie Luke McCaffrey for touches, it becomes quite tricky to have any fantasy value.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) | -11 (140 ADP)
Despite positive recovery videos, which we do tend to see a lot of at this time of year, drafters aren’t buying into a 29-year-old running back coming off a multi-ligament injury that required multiple surgeries. The Browns also told us they’re skeptical about having Chubb sign a reduced contract to remain with the team in 2024. Chubb has been the best pure rusher in the NFL for several years now, but expecting that in 2024 seems fool’s gold, particularly with D’Onta Foreman and Jerome Ford in the rotation.
In the lab this morning with Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns) can’t wait to see him bounce back this season ???? pic.twitter.com/O9qzApCrLe
— Brad Lester (@BradLester1) June 27, 2024
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) | -10 (186 ADP)
Three-headed backfields tend not to be good news for fantasy football. Despite D’Andre Swift not living up to his potential. it’s very hard to ignore the fact the Bears made Swift the very first signing of free agency, paying him $24 million over three years, which helped set the market for the position. Khalil Herbert has played well over the last few years, but it’s hard to figure out what role he has in this offense unless Swift falls flat on his face.
Antonio Gibson (RB – NE) | -8 (166 ADP)
The Patriots needed more depth behind Rhamondre Stevenson after moving on from Ezekiel Elliott. The addition of Antonio Gibson was a solid one but also signaled their intent that they weren’t looking for someone to compete with Stevenson outright. Drafters remained hoping this could be a true committee but in the wake of Stevenson’s new contract, Gibson is now falling. 2023 wasn’t incredible for Gibson with only 12.1 rush attempts per game, but he set career-highs in rushing yards after contact per attempt (3.51), yards per attempt (4.7) and success rate (51%). If anything happened to Stevenson, Gibson would have top-36 weekly upside.
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