Regression in fantasy football is a bit of a subjective term, but ultimately, it’s regression to the mean. Getting closer to the expected outcome as a sample of games increases over an NFL season. For fantasy, that can mean both positive and negative. Both terms mean a player has underperformed (positive) or overperformed (negative) based on the mean or expected outcome.
To further illustrate how these concepts work, we’ll be listing a few players for the 2024 NFL season who are set for some regression to the mean based on their 2023 fantasy output.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Fantasy Football Regression Candidates for 2024
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
Ever the polarizing player, we’ve been waiting for the encore performance to Pitts’ amazing rookie season where he put up 1,000 receiving yards in his age-21 season. The talent for Pitts has always been there, but the passing game environment has been so lousy that it has people questioning Pitts’ talent. Make no mistake; the time is now for Pitts in 2024.
The #Falcons plan to play Kyle Pitts at both TE and WR, per OC Zac Robinson.
“He’s learning basically two different positions."
(via @DOrlandoAJC) pic.twitter.com/IvBle5TLpG
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) July 14, 2024
With Pitts set to play both WR and TE, that means an entirely new route tree opens up a world of new ways for former Rams passing game coordinator and now Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to utilize Pitts’ talents compared to other tight ends who may not split out wide with regularity. With Robinson – a disciple of Sean McVay – calling the shots for the Falcons’ offense this season, Pitts is unlikely to come off the field. In this McVay system, the personnel rarely leave the field; consolidating targets and personnel to the main players in the offense. We’ve seen this with other former McVay assistants-turned-head coaches like Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) and Zac Taylor (Bengals), so it’s very easy to project similar utilization of these players going forward for the Falcons.
Pitts has languished under his former head coach Arthur Smith, who would toy with fantasy managers by utilizing numerous other tight ends like Jonnu Smith and MyCole Pruitt instead of Pitts, who would be a decoy on some plays. Those nightmares for fantasy managers are over now as it’s safe to go back to the well with Pitts in 2024 as he should be primed for positive regression thanks to his new offense and a competent quarterback in Kirk Cousins.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
No elite wide receiver stands to make a bigger leap from his 2022 and 2023 surroundings than Garrett Wilson does in 2024. Positive regression is on tap for Wilson in his third season, but why? Well, gone are Zach Wilson, Mike White, Chris Streveler, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle. Returning is Aaron Rodgers with the hope that he will play a few more snaps than three before ending his campaign with an Achilles’ tendon tear. Wilson turned in an excellent 2023 campaign amidst a chaotic environment and circumstances.
It couldn’t get much worse for the Jets receivers having Zach Wilson as quarterback in 2023. How bad was he? Wilson has been no better than 111th over the last two seasons in terms of Pro Football Focus’ catchable target rate with the Jets having the fourth-highest uncatchable pass rate in the NFL.
There were 3 WRs with 28+% target share but less than 70% catchable targets last season:
Garrett Wilson
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 10, 2024
Despite the shortcomings of his quarterbacks, Wilson still found a way to put up 1,000-yard seasons back-to-back seasons, ranked as WR5 in ESPN’s Open Score, racked up a league-leading 45% of the team’s air yards and earned 37% of the Jets’ first-read targets last season, Wilson was and continues to be the unquestioned alpha receiver on this team heading into 2024. With some touchdown regression and more catchable targets on the horizon for Wilson, the sky is the limit this season for the third-year Jet.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
When looking at Josh Jacobs’ body of work over his career, his 2022 contract season looks more of an outlier than something he can repeat this season. Jacobs put up an overall RB3 season in 2022 which looks like the outlier more than his multiple sub-RB12 seasons surrounding it. Jacobs heads to Green Bay after five seasons with the Raiders and while Jacobs struggled in 2023, his landing spot with the Packers leaves more room for him to continue underperforming relative to his standing in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) of RB13.
The Packers have always used multiple running backs going back even before head coach Matt LaFleur was calling the shots in Green Bay. The team also drafted MarShawn Lloyd with decent draft capital and brought back AJ Dillon. Likely gone are the days in Las Vegas where Jacobs would take 85% of all running back carries in 2023 and 87% in 2022. With an ADP in the middle of the fourth round, Jacobs feels like a dead-zone running back that you’ll draft way higher than you need to based on a volume projection that would make sense if he was still in Las Vegas.
To pay off his fourth-round 2024, Jacobs will need to score a ton of touchdowns to make up for a decreasing workload. Let’s face it – if there’s one thing we can’t predict year to year, it’s touchdowns. While the Packers are trending upward with their offensive environment with Jordan Love and company, Jacobs feels like such a bad bet to make even in that new environment and is a prime candidate for continued negative regression in 2024.
More Fantasy Football Breakouts & Bounce-Backs
- 3 Breakout & Bounceback Candidates
- Quarterback Bounce-Back Candidates
- Running Back Bounce-Back Candidates
- Wide Receiver Bounce-Back Candidates
- Second-Year Breakout Candidates | Regression Candidates
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: QB | RB | WR | TE
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Kevin Tompkins is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his profile and follow him @ktompkinsii
