For fantasy football managers, the running back position has been increasingly difficult to gauge over the years. With the workhorse RB role being nearly extinct, NFL backfields are more ambiguous than ever.
Long gone are the days when most teams would head into offseason with a predetermined starter. Nowadays, teams are insistent on having these players earn their respective roles through training camp performance.
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2024 Position Battles to Monitor: Running Backs
It has never been more important for fantasy managers to keep a close eye on offseason speculation, especially regarding the RB position. Those that accurately predict the touch distribution of NFL backfields will have a distinct edge over their league mates.
Kyren Williams‘ stellar 2023 season is a great example of this. Towards the tail end of training camp last year, rumors emerged that Williams had earned a sizeable workload in the Rams backfield. Many Cam Akers truthers, who held on to earlier reports about the latter being this team’s RB1, chose to ignore the speculation.
Those who payed close attention to the training camp buzz likely benefitted from Williams’ elite RB production on a weekly basis. Those who dismissed them likely dropped Akers mere weeks after investing mid-round draft capital on him.
Below is an NFL backfield with major uncertainties regarding volume distribution. Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on beat reporters’ comments about these situations.
Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane (MIA)
It’s important to preface this section by underlining the fact that the Dolphins boast an embarrassment of riches at the RB position. Among RBs with at least 100 carries, Mostert and Achane were the two highest-graded rushers in 2023 according to PFF.
Achane’s 7.9 yards per carry, 153.5 elusive rating, and 5.12 yards after contact per carry were all ranked first among the aforementioned group of RBs (PFF). These numbers, while very impressive, are all due to regress to the mean. They simply won’t be sustainable as he sees an increase to the 102 carries he had in 2023.
Mostert was an elite RB in his own right last season. Among RBs with at least 100 carries, Mostert ranked sixth in yards after contact per carry, sixth in missed tackles forced, and fifth in elusive rating (per PFF). Despite heading into his 10th NFL season, Mostert is simply too effective as a runner to not be featured regularly out of the backfield. That remains true despite Achane’s ridiculous efficiency metrics.
Given the rushing acumen both players possess, they’re likely to split carries relatively evenly. It’d also be in Mike McDaniel’s best interest to limit both of their workloads in an attempt to keep them healthy. Mostert has unfortunately carried the “injury-prone” tag his entire career. On the other hand, Achane missed six games with a number of injuries during his rookie year.
In the receiving department, Achane outperformed his running mate in terms of receiving grade, yards per route run, and yards after catch per reception in 2023 (per PFF). He’s likely to inherit a greater portion of the pass-catching role. Conversely, the goal-line role is Mostert’s to lose. He proved to be a force in the red zone, accumulating a league-leading 18 touchdowns last season.
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