Fantasy Football Fallers: Justin Herbert, James Conner, Keenan Allen, David Njoku

Similar to stocks on the Dow Jones, a player’s fantasy football draft position and perceived value can change quickly and suddenly. Astute fantasy football managers can take advantage of dips in average draft position (ADP) or avoid overvalued players by staying updated with the latest trends on their dedicated host or provider. With rookie training camps in the rearview mirror and the 2024 Hall of Fame Game right around the corner in just over a month, it is crucial to examine which players are on the rise and which are tumbling down draft boards to make informed decisions.

Here are some examples of fantasy football players currently trending down. Here are a few fantasy football draft fallers.

Fantasy Football Draft Value Fallers

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (LAC): Trending DOWN
Herbert is currently the QB16 per FantasyPros ECR following his disastrous 2023 season. Due a myriad of injuries and poor offensive line play, Herbert finished with the lowest passing totals in his career, just throwing for just 20 touchdowns and 3,134 yards, finishing as a QB2. Herbert’s overall outlook went from bad to worse in the offseason following the departure of his three top targets (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett) and Los Angeles’ decision to reel in Jim Harbaugh from the University of Michigan. The offensive scheme that he and coordinator Greg Roman favor heavily relies upon the running game, and the expectation is that Herbert will have diminished opportunities, capping his overall upside.

Running Backs

James Conner (ARI): Trending DOWN
Since entering the league in 2017 with Pittsburgh, Conner has proven to be reliably unreliable. On the rare occasion that he is fully healthy, Conner still has the overall talent to be a top-10 option at the position, given his receiving aptitude and blocking ability. Sadly, his violent running style promotes contact he cannot handle, resulting in Conner starting 13 games or less in six of the past seven seasons. Arizona drafted my top-graded rookie running back Trey Benson from Florida State as an insurance policy, and Benson will push for snaps starting in training camp. Conner is expected to head the committee, but it is only a matter of time before things change.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (CHI): Trending DOWN
Allen’s inclusion as a downward-trending option has nothing to do with his talent level, age, or health – purely his new situation. After 11 magnificent seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, where he was the clear alpha option, the team decided to move on and trade him for 50 cents on the dollar with Chicago. He must now overcome several pitfalls, including a rookie quarterback under center and stiff competition for targets opposite D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze – all while learning a new offense. We have no doubt that when Allen is thrown passes that he will capitalize and be productive, but one needs to be realistic with his expected volume.

Tight Ends

David Njoku (CLE): Trending DOWN
Njoku finished as the overall TE5 in half-point PPR leagues last year, thanks to a tremendous 81/882/6 final split. Though his totals were encouraging, it is essential to note that the bulk of his production came when Joe Flacco replaced Deshaun Watson for Cleveland, and Watson is expected to be under center in Week 1 for the Browns. Borrowing the statistics from my colleague Pat Fitzmaurice, Njoku averaged 6.2 receptions and 80.5 yards per game with four touchdowns under Flacco, and just 4.6 receptions for 44.7 yards and two touchdowns under Watson. For Njoku to finish as a top-10 option at the position again, Watson will need to improve his play dramatically.

NFL Justin Herbert Keenan Allen Mike Williams Gerald Everett James Conner Trey Benson D.J. Moore Cole Kmet Rome Odunze David Njoku Joe Flacco Deshaun Watson