In the world of fantasy football, the platform you draft on can significantly influence your strategy. Drafters tend to be anchored to a site’s player rankings. Each site-be it ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, NFL Fantasy, or Sleeper-has its own Average Draft Position (ADP) trends, impacting player values and positional priorities. For example, Best Ball formats often favor wide receivers, while traditional leagues lean more towards running backs in the earlier rounds.
To uncover these nuances, I conducted several 12-team mock drafts on each platform and through FantasyPros Draft Wizard Mock Draft Simulator. This article dives into the ADP variances across these popular sites, sharing insights and strategies to help you dominate your league, no matter where you draft.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Variance
ESPN
I conducted two mock drafts using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator and one regular mock draft on the ESPN platform itself. Note that when I used the Draft Simulator the second time, I checked off only the ESPN ADP and ESPN pre-draft rankings settings to get a more accurate reading on the ESPN 2024 fantasy football landscape. If you want to practice drafting against ESPN ADP, follow the same settings.
Main takeaways:
- In both draft simulations, RBs went much earlier than I anticipated. As a result, my overall RBs were lackluster.
- In the first simulation, Kyle Pitts was drafted in Round 10, David Njoku in Round 11, and Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, and Brock Bowers in Round 12. Late in the draft, many tight-end values were available.
- The best value picks (versus ECR) included Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amari Cooper. This aligns with Samuel and Cooper’s egregiously low ADPs on the ESPN platform.
What did Amari Cooper do to ESPN?
ADP 70th overall…
Or Christian Kirk?
ADP 86th overall…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- In terms of strong reaches, nothing stood out because it was mostly on players going in the “sleeper” range. Once we get outside the top seven rounds, go get your guys. The one standout is Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks, who was selected 61st overall at the beginning of the sixth round. RBs go like hotcakes in this more traditional league format.
- In the second simulation, there was another pocket of tight ends that were drafted very late. And although Cooper and Samuel weren’t drafted super late, another WR fell to the wayside in Christian Kirk. Kirk’s ADP is 86th overall on ESPN…
- All in all, the majority of WRs that I listed on this thread (see below), such as Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, etc., were extreme values among WRs much later in the draft. Terry McLaurin and Keenan Allen also fell.
The best fantasy football draft VALUES????
To Win Your League in 2024…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- Reaches were the same story. Jonathon Brooks went in Round 6, and Derrick Henry was a high-end second-rounder. The Big Dog’s ADP is 16th overall.
- In the final mock draft that was conducted on the ESPN platform, we had a similar run out with RBs going up the board.
- Kyren Williams – 13th overall
- Derrick Henry – 15th overall
- Travis Etienne – 19th overall
- Isiah Pacheco – 20th overall
- Joe Mixon – 21st overall
- James Cook – 26th overall
- Alvin Kamara – 31st overall
- Rachaad White – 35th overall
- Kenneth Walker – 40th overall
- Rhamondre Stevenson – 42nd overall
- Javonte Williams – 46th overall
- Aaron Jones – 50th overall
- Jonathon Brooks – 59th overall
- Zamir White – 69th overall
- Jaylen Warren – 74th overall
- I think Cook, Walker, Stevenson, Williams and Brooks are the most glaring ones.
- As a result, WRs such as Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Pickens, Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin fell from Round 3 onward.
- I drafted Puka 17th overall. A steal.
- Amari Cooper went in Round 7. As did Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson.
- Jayden Reed went 92nd and Jaxon Smith-Njigba went outside the top 100. As did a plethora of other rookie WRs…
- More late-round TEs and premier late-round QBs from Rounds 10 onward were available. All my favorite late-round sleeper QBs are going late on ESPN.
Want Jayden Reed?
90th overall on ESPN.
How about Hollywood Brown?
98th overall on ESPN.
Diontae Johnson?
95th overall on ESPN.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- Other noticeable misprices per ESPN ADP (not including rookies): Devin Singletary, Luke Musgrave, Wan’Dale Robinson, Joshua Palmer, Dontayvion Wicks, Curtis Samuel, Hollywood Brown, Hunter Henry and Rico Dowdle.
Yahoo
I conducted two mock drafts for Yahoo. One using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator and one regular mock draft on the Y! platform. Note that when I used the Draft Simulator, I checked off only the Yahoo pre-draft rankings settings to get a more accurate reading on that specific 2024 fantasy football landscape on the Y! If you don’t want to wait for a Yahoo mock draft till fill, hop on the draft simulator with Yahoo’s pre-draft rankings to simulate the experience.
Main takeaways:
- In the draft simulation, the late-round QB/TE both provided strong values.
- Same suspects as on ESPN: David Njoku, Brock Bowers, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, etc.
- The value picks included Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley.
- The biggest reaches (more RBs, of course) include Zack Moss, Brian Robinson, Derrick Henry, and Raheem Mostert.
- RBs overall went higher again.
- The most surprising picks included Mark Andrews in Round 6, Dalton Kincaid in Round 7 and Kyle Pitts in Round 7.
- Yahoo is the platform for the best value on the elite crop of tight ends.
Discount elite Tight Ends.
Mark Andrews, ADP 60 – Yahoo
Trey McBride, ADP 59 – Yahoo
Dalton Kincaid, ADP 74 – Yahoo
Evan Engram, ADP 88 – Yahoo
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
How did the simulation stack up versus the actual Yahoo mock draft? Pretty consistent. Our draft simulator rocks.
- Elite tight ends were readily available from Rounds 5-7.
- RBs went in the same range as the simulated draft.
- Best overall values: Keenan Allen (7.2), Diontae Johnson (7.9), Chris Godwin (7.10), Jayden Reed (8.5). Jaxon Smith-Njigba went in Round 11.
- Rookie WRs are also all values.
- Jonathon Brooks‘ price was back down to the 10th round. The Yahoo platform is where the Panthers’ rookie RB is the cheapest.
- J.K. Dobbins and Chuba Hubbard were 15th-rounders. They could be Week 1 starters. Jaleel McLaughlin was a 14th-round pick.
- Late-round QBs: Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, etc. all taken after Round 10.
- There’s a gap after the Kyler Murray– Dak Prescott tier among QBs. In both drafts, we had a massive gap after the last QB was selected in the Round 7 range. The simulator went all the way to Round 13 without another QB, while the real mock went QB-less until Round 10 after Brock Purdy.
- Other player values on Yahoo to monitor (again other than rookies)
NFL Fantasy
I conducted two mock drafts for NFL Fantasy. One using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator and one regular mock draft on the NFL.com platform. Note that when I used the Draft Simulator, I checked off only the NFL pre-draft rankings settings to get a more accurate reading on that specific 2024 fantasy football landscape on that host site. That draft is not depicted.
Main takeaways:
- Starting with the real-life mock draft (aside from some crazy positional takes), it was standard from a redraft PPR perspective, with more RBs drafted first.
- De’Von Achane and Nico Collins went later in Round 3.
- Joe Mixon went MUCH later than he has in the CBS/Yahoo drafts (Round 5), perhaps a sign that he could fall further in home leagues compared to other RBs.
- Malik Nabers also went late in toward the end of Round 5 (par for the course of most rookies).
- George Pickens is going to be much closer to a Round 6 pick in home leagues than the Round 4 range of best ball drafts.
- Brooks’ ADP is back up to Round 7.
- Keenan Allen continues to see a massive discount in these mock drafts.
- Kincaid fell into Round 6 along with Kyle Pitts.
- Speaking of which…Jaylen Warren is one of these late-round RB darling best ball drafters who might have to be “overdrafted” in their home leagues. He is consistently going in Round 7. He also went ahead of Najee Harris. By nearly 2 rounds. Najee’s ADP on NFL.com is the lowest in the industry. In an RB-starved platform, Harris is going near the double-digits. Tells you something…
- Speaking of Round 7 – we have another tier break with the QBs after this round. Ergo, if you don’t have a QB 7 rounds in, take that position completely off your draft board. Seems like a break spot for those following the late-round QB approach.
- Rashee Rice is beyond dirt cheap on NFL.com, as are all the Chiefs WRs.
It's trending like Rashee Rice won't be suspended until later…
98th overall on NFL
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- Understandably, some of these guys are going later with DST/kickers being drafted in the player pool, but it’s noteworthy regardless.
- In the draft simulation, I’d say it was in line with the actual mock draft.
- We see fewer massive fallers with the Draft Simulator’s AI bots waiting till the end to take Ks and DSTs. Smart.
- Jaylen Warren went again in Round 7. And the Chiefs WRs were super cheap.
- There was another quarterback drop-off after Round 7/8 until Round 12. Again, in that range, Round 7-8 seems like the last time to take an “early” quarterback in 12-team leagues.
- All in all, I estimate that the draft from the NFL fantasy mock simulation was “sharper” than the actual mock draft.
- Other player values on NFL to exploit (again, other than rookies)
- Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Dontayvion Wicks, Roschon Johnson, Curtis Samuel, Rico Dowdle, Christian Watson, Jaleel McLaughlin, DeAndre Hopkins, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Hollywood Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Hunter Henry, Rashee Rice, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Jerome Ford, Zay Flowers, Chris Godwin, Zach Charbonnet, Chase Brown, Nico Collins, Brian Robinson, Jaylen Warren.
CBS
FantasyPros currently doesn’t offer a way to synchronize CBS ADP pre-draft rankings into the Draft Wizard (although you can still league sync), so I just did a normal CBS mock draft on their website to get an idea of the landscape.
Main Takeaways:
- This is by far the most hungry RB room among the mocks I’ve conducted. Kyren Williams went inside in Round 1, Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara in Round 2, James Conner in Round 3, Zamir White in Round 4, and Raheem Mostert in Round 4. Zack Moss went in Round 5 with Najee Harris, and Nick Chubb went in Round 6.
- Naturally, this pushed many WRs down the board. Drake London went 36th, Michael Pittman Jr. went 50th, Jaylen Waddle went 56th, Tank Dell went 85th, and Keenan Allen went 99th.
- Malik Nabers…101st
- TEs also went late because of the RB madness.
- This is the most aggressively drafted RB platform. Based on CBS ADP, it aligns with the variance of the underpriced player you can target.
- These players include (again not including rookies): Darnell Mooney, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Hunter Henry, Curtis Samuel, Dontayvion Wicks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Pat Freiermuth, Rashee Rice, Jaylen Waddle, Tank Dell, Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, Puka Nacua, Michael Pittman Jr., Jaleel McLaughlin and Rico Dowdle.
Sleeper
FantasyPros didn’t previously offer a way to synchronize only Sleeper ADP pre-draft rankings into the Draft Wizard when I conducted this mock last week, so I just reviewed a generic Sleeper mock draft to get an idea of the landscape. I’m expecting this to be the “sharpest” of the mocks, given that Sleeper is a relatively newer platform for fantasy football compared to the others I’ve used.
But since that time, Sleeper ADP has been added to the Mock Draft Simulator, providing users (in my opinion) the best way to realistically project your league by drafting against that specific ADP.
Main Takeaways:
- The first round was split between WRs and RBs. Puka Nacua and Garrett Wilson fell outside Round 1 altogether.
- Kyren Williams and Travis Etienne Jr. were high-end second-round picks.
- Again, Joe Mixon fell into Round 5. Among the “dead-zone” RBs, Mixon seems like the most logical candidate to fall a bit farther than the remaining pack.
- Sleeper also has the most up-to-date rookie rankings, so the discount you get on the first-year players here is not nearly as great. This is due to their strong presence in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
- Even so, Jaylen Warren remains a strong value at 8.10. 2-plus rounds AFTER Najee Harris. Jaleel McLaughlin is also buried in ADP.
- Upon further review of the Sleeper ADP, here are the players who stood out the most based on price alone (specific to Sleeper). Note that many increased RB prices here are the same as the other platforms I analyzed.
- Undervalued: Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin, Brian Robinson
- Overvalued: Kyren Williams
- Overall, I’d say that Sleeper strikes a nice balance of “accurate ADP” without being over the top in either direction. Captures a little more of the rookies while also considering the RB-heavy nature of more traditional home leagues.
- I will also say that while doing this exercise, it’s bewildering to see how rookie ADP varies so much by site. However, the one constant is Marvin Harrison Jr. being a staple at the top of Round 2. Even in home leagues, Harrison Jr. is not coming with a rookie discount anywhere. I think he’s being overvalued.
- As we move forward into the peak of the draft season from August to September, I will likely refer to Sleeper as my main ADP source, along with consensus to give the best proxy of what your 2024 fantasy football draft will look like in a vacuum. I’ll be sure to update specific articles in the FantasyPros Draft Kit with references to Sleeper’s ADP.
- Note that FantasyPros ADP has just added Sleeper ADP into the consensus ADP.
- But as I have discussed, you want to exploit any edge possible. And that firmly includes your league’s drafting platform.
- I was able to run quickly through a Sleeper ADP simulation (thanks to the Mock Draft Simulator), and the results aligned with the real mock draft. Other highlights and the draft board are below.
- Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle went in Round 4.
- Malik Nabers went end of Round 4.
- Raheem Mostert went Round 5.
- Kyler Murray went super late (Round 10) after a QB drought post-Round 7.
Final Insights
ESPN
- RBs Dominate Early: RBs are drafted earlier than expected, leading to lower-tier RBs on many rosters.
- Tight End Value: Players like Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, and Brock Bowers offer excellent late-round value.
- Notable WR Values: Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Amari Cooper are undervalued, making them great picks.
- Reaches: RBs like Jonathon Brooks are picked surprisingly early.
Yahoo
- Elite TE Availability: High-quality tight ends are available in rounds 5-7.
- Value Picks: Keenan Allen, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Godwin are solid picks.
- QB Drop-Off: After the seventh round, there’s a significant gap in QB selections.
NFL Fantasy
- RB Focus: More RBs are drafted early compared to other platforms.
- Late-Round WR Bargains: Players like Keenan Allen and George Pickens are available at discounts.
- Tight End Values: Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts are selected in the middle rounds, offering value.
CBS
- RB Heavy Drafts: RBs like Kyren Williams and Rachaad White go earlier, pushing WRs and TEs down the board.
- Discounted WRs: Players like Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., and Keenan Allen fall to later rounds.
Sleeper
- Balanced ADP: Provides a realistic ADP without extreme variances.
- RB and WR Values: Jaylen Warren and Jaleel McLaughlin are strong values, while rookies are priced higher.
- Consistent Rookie Valuation: Marvin Harrison Jr. remains an expensive pick across all drafts.
Most Highlighted Player Values
- Tight Ends: Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry
- Wide Receivers: Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, George Pickens, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jayden Reed, Joshua Palmer, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Dontayvion Wicks, Curtis Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins, Nico Collins and Michael Pittman Jr.
- Running Backs: Joe Mixon, Jaylen Warren, J.K. Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Rico Dowdle, Brian Robinson
- Quarterbacks: Late-round QBs like Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Trevor Lawrence.
Understanding these platform-specific ADP trends can give you a strategic edge in your drafts. Based on each platform’s tendencies, adapt your strategy to exploit undervalued players and secure key positions.
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