5 Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Running Backs (2024)

Everyone knows it’s important to hone in on sleepers in your 2024 fantasy football drafts. However, avoiding busts can be just as important so that you’re not wasting draft capital on players who are likely to underperform. FantasyPros analyst Derek Brown identified players he believes are likely to let you down in his Draft Day Cheat Sheet.

Here’s a look at the running backs busts he wants to avoid in fantasy football draft this season.

5 Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated. Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active. Jacobs wasn’t the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs could be this season’s Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season, but don’t rule out MarShawn Lloyd playing a much bigger role this season than many anticipate. Jacobs is a shaky RB2.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

Alvin Kamara retained his every-down role last year despite the team drafting Kendre Miller. Miller spent most of his rookie season on the injury report, so we’ll see if Kamara can hold him off in 2024, but at least expect Kamara to be a workhorse (maybe not a bellcow). Last year, Kamara was tenth in opportunity share, eighth in weighed opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. While Kamara’s rushing prowess took another massive hit (40th out of 49 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt per Fantasy Points Data), his receiving chops remained strong. Last year, out of 60 qualifying backs, he ranked first in target share (18.1%) and sixth in yards per route run. Kamara might not have the same bounce in his step as he did during the Drew Brees era, but his pass game and high-leverage usage in 2024 should keep him firmly planted in the RB1 ranks.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

Rachaad White was Leonard Fournette 2.0 for Tampa Bay last season. An inefficient rusher whose pass game role and every down snap share vaults them to RB1 land. Last year, White was the RB10 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. He also ranked top-ten in carries (second), targets (ninth), and red zone touches (ninth). White didn’t do nearly as much with that volume as we’d hoped. Among 49 qualifying backs, White ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While he was eighth in overall target volume among running backs, he was only 43rd in targets per route run and 18th in yards per route run. White could easily roll back into 2024 as the Bucs do it all back, but don’t be surprised if Bucky Irving helps him shoulder the load.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn’t pretty. Volume wasn’t the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it’s possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver’s early down guy, but don’t be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.

Zack Moss (RB – CIN)

Moss parlayed his starting stint last year with the Colts into a possible starting gig with the Bengals. In the seven games he started and played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Moss should handle the early downs in Cincinnati this season after ranking 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Chase Brown could eat into his pass game work as Moss was only 41st in yards per route run and 48th in targets per route run. Even if his passing game usage is capped, being the early down back on one of the league’s best offenses still puts him in the RB2/3 conversation.

NFL Sleepers Josh Jacobs Rachaad White MarShawn Lloyd Alvin Kamara Kendre Miller Leonard Fournette Bucky Irving Javonte Williams Jaleel McLaughlin Zack Moss Chase Brown