Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my bust and league-winner candidates from the NFC West teams – the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks.
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: NFC West
Potential Bust Candidates
Trey McBride (ARI): ADP 47.1 | TE3
The young tight end had a breakout sophomore season. McBride was the TE4 in eight games with Kyler Murray, averaging 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He had a 29.9% receiving yards market share with Murray under center, posting a 14.4% higher rate than anyone else on the team (per Fantasy Points Data). However, that won’t be the case in 2024 after the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. While he is a top-tier tight end, McBride is getting slightly overdrafted at his current ADP.
Kyren Williams (LAR): ADP 28.6 | RB8
Williams was the RB6, averaging 19.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, he was a volume-based RB1. Williams ranked 20th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in missed forced tackle rate, and 26th in explosive run rate among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Blake Corum will have a meaningful role on offense, especially after Williams has dealt with multiple leg injuries in his career. While he is still an RB1, Williams comes with significant risk.
Christian McCaffrey (SF): ADP 1.3 | RB1
Some will argue that McCaffrey is the safest player to draft in 2024. He has been the RB1 in fantasy since joining the 49ers. The veteran averaged 22.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, 2.5 more per game than any other running back. However, the superstar led the NFL in touches for the second time in his career last year. The last time he led the league in touches was in 2019. McCaffrey struggled with injuries the following two seasons, playing in only 30.3% of the contests.
Tyler Lockett (SEA): ADP 100.4 | WR51
Unfortunately, Lockett’s fantasy production fell off a cliff in 2023. After averaging 12.1 or more half-point PPR fantasy points per game in five straight years, the veteran averaged only 9.6 last season. Furthermore, he had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2017. Lockett had five receiving touchdowns last year after totaling eight or more in five consecutive seasons. More importantly, his role on offense will decline, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba heading into his second year. He is significantly getting overdrafted as a ninth-round pick.
Potential League Winners
Trey Benson (ARI): ADP 112.7 | RB33
The rookie running back will be a fantasy star one day, but Benson won’t replace James Conner as the starter in 2024. However, he is an injury away from being a league winner. Conner has missed over 20% of the games in his career because of injury, including four games in back-to-back years. Benson is an explosive runner with home-run speed, making him a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. The rookie will have some week-winning performances and could be a league winner if Conner misses significant time.
Matthew Stafford (LAR): ADP 150.3 | QB19
Stafford was the QB15 last year, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. While that was an improvement from his injury-riddled 2022 season, it was still well below his first year in Los Angeles. However, the former No. 1 overall pick was outstanding in the second half of the season once he had all his weapons healthy. Stafford was the QB6 from Week 12 through Week 17, averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns and 20.8 fantasy points per game. The veteran has top-eight upside if Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp stay healthy.
Christian McCaffrey (SF): ADP 1.3 | RB1
Despite being the first pick in nearly every 1QB league draft, McCaffrey has league-winning upside. He was the RB1 last season, averaging 22.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The superstar was the only non-quarterback to average over 20 fantasy points per game, averaging 2.5 more than any other running back. Furthermore, McCaffrey has averaged 8.5 fantasy points per contest in the passing game in 27 career contests with San Francisco. He could easily have another RB1 finish if he can stay healthy in 2024.
Geno Smith (SEA): ADP 167.5 | QB22
Unfortunately, Smith is coming off a disappointing season, ending the year as the QB19. However, fantasy players should give him a pass, as his offensive line struggled to stay healthy. Meanwhile, the veteran was the QB5 in 2022, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. He had 30 passing touchdowns that year, the fourth-most in the NFL. Thankfully, Seattle improved its offensive line in the offseason. More importantly, Smith has a talented set of wide receivers, giving him the weapons needed for a top-10 finish this year.
- Busts & League Winners AFC: East | North | South | West
- Busts & League Winners NFC: East | North | South
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
