Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust and league-winner candidates from the NFC South teams – the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: NFC South
Potential Bust Candidates
Kyle Pitts (ATL): ADP 59.8 | TE6
Many fantasy players have given up on Pitts. He joined Mike Ditka as the only tight ends to have over 1,000 receiving yards in their rookie season. Unfortunately, the former Florida star has been a massive bust over the past two years, averaging only 6.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. After totaling 1,026 receiving yards as a rookie, he had only 1,023 over the past two seasons. While the arrival of Kirk Cousins has given fantasy players hope, Pitts is still the most likely Falcon to bust.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR): ADP 87.7 | RB23
The Panthers don’t have a loaded offense, causing them to lack a clear-bust candidate. However, Brooks could turn into a significant bust as a rookie. He is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for the start of training camp later this month. While the former Texas star should play in Week 1, the team will likely limit his workload early in the year. Brooks could have an outstanding rookie year, but fantasy players should temper their expectations, especially if his ADP continues to rise.
Alvin Kamara (NO): ADP 76.9 | RB18
Over 17% of Kamara’s half-point PPR fantasy points the past two years were from receptions, while 47.4% came in the passing game. The veteran was once an explosive running back, averaging five yards per rushing attempt over the first four seasons of his career. Unfortunately, he has averaged four or fewer yards per rushing attempt in three consecutive years. More importantly, Kamara has lost his role at the goal line, totaling 11 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons after having a career-high 16 in 2020.
Mike Evans (TB): ADP 23.3 | WR17
Evans was the WR5 last season, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran led the league with 13 receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had 13 or more scores. However, Evans could regress this season. The Buccaneers improved their receiving core this offseason, spending a third-round pick on Jalen McMillan. He will push Chris Godwin back into his natural position in the slot. While Evans is a solid selection, he is slightly overpriced as a late second-round pick.
Potential League Winners
Darnell Mooney (ATL): ADP 147.4 | WR68
The veteran was an afterthought on an inconsistent Chicago Bears passing attack last year, averaging only 4.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, there is hope for Mooney in Atlanta with Kirk Cousins under center. He has produced two top-12 wide receivers in the same season twice during his time with the Minnesota Vikings (2018 and 2020). While Mooney won’t be a top-12 guy, the veteran is a capable receiver, putting up a 1,000-yard receiving season in his career. He should easily outperform his ADP.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR): ADP 213.6 | TE31
Many thought Sanders would be an early Day 2 pick, especially after having the seventh-most contest catches among tight ends last season. Instead, he made it to the start of the fourth round. However, Sanders could have fantasy value as a rookie. The Panthers haven’t had a difference-maker at tight end since Greg Olsen left. Furthermore, Diontae Johnson is the only pass catcher on the roster guaranteed to see more targets than Sanders. He has the yards after the catch talent to become a go-to target for Bryce Young.
Rashid Shaheed (NO): ADP 103.6 | WR53
Shaheed is a popular third-year breakout candidate after the Saints moved on from Michael Thomas, making him the No. 2 receiver. The explosive playmaker was the WR43 last season, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had the 15th-highest yards per target among wide receivers, with at least 75 targets last year. Shaheed could be even better in 2024 after New Orleans hired Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator. While fantasy players should target Chris Olave at his second-round ADP, Shaheed is an excellent mid-round option.
Chris Godwin (TB): ADP 58.9 | WR36
Fantasy players struggled with starting Godwin, as he scored 9.6 or fewer half-point PPR fantasy points in 64.7% of the games last year. Furthermore, the veteran averaged under 10 fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018. However, Godwin is prime for a bounce-back performance, with the Buccaneers moving him back into the slot. Last year, the veteran averaged 0.41 fantasy points per route run in the slot compared to 0.26 lined up outside (per Fantasy Points Data). He is one of my favorite wide receiver draft targets.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
