Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust and league-winner candidates from the NFC North teams – the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings.
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: NFC North
Potential Bust Candidates
Keenan Allen (CHI): ADP 53.9 | WR33
While Allen was the WR3 in half-point PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis in 2023, his days as a must-start receiver are over. He is a volume-based receiver, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see the same target volume in Chicago. DJ Moore will remain the No. 1 wide receiver after having a career year, while Allen will have to fight off Rome Odunze for snaps and targets. More importantly, the veteran has missed 11 games over the past two seasons because of injuries.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET): ADP 13.1 | RB4
Fantasy players should have no problem taking Gibbs as a top-six running back. However, he is getting slightly over-drafted. Gibbs was the RB10 as a rookie, averaging 14.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. By comparison, David Montgomery was the RB13, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per contest. More importantly, Gibbs had one fewer touch than Montgomery despite playing in one more game and having 36 more targets than the veteran. While he could be a high-end RB1, Gibbs could also be a bust at cost in 2024.
Josh Jacobs (GB): ADP 52.9 | RB12
Many believe Jacobs will be the Packers’ featured running back in 2024 after signing a massive four-year deal in free agency. However, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense. More importantly, Jacob’s yards per rushing attempt declined by 29%, his explosive run rate slipped by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt dropped by 29% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Lloyd pushes Jacobs into a near 50-50 backfield split.
Jordan Addison (MIN): ADP 69.9 | WR41
Unfortunately, Minnesota will have a new Week 1 starting quarterback for the first time since 2018. Addison was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%). Furthermore, seven of his 10 receiving scores came in the eight games with Kirk Cousins under center. Addison was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. He is on my do-not-draft list this year after being a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent receiver last season.
Potential League Winners
Caleb Williams (CHI): ADP 113.1 | QB13
Rarely are No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft set up to succeed as rookies. Last year, Bryce Young had no weapons and an awful offensive line. However, that won’t be the case for Williams. The Bears made multiple additions to their offensive line, including trading for Ryan Bates. More importantly, Chicago added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Gerald Everett and D’Andre Swift to a receiving core led by DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Williams has the talent and supporting cast needed to put up massive numbers as a rookie.
Jared Goff (DET): ADP 127.2 | QB16
The veteran will be one of my highest-rostered players this year because he is a massive draft bargain. Goff was the QB7 in 2023, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. Detroit held onto Ben Johnson after having one of the top offenses in 2023. Goff averaged 2.1 passing touchdowns and 19.9 fantasy points per game in 12 contests in a dome last season. By comparison, he averaged one passing touchdown and 13.3 fantasy points per game in the five contests outside. The veteran plays only three games outdoors in 2024.
Jordan Love (GB): ADP 98.1 | QB10
Love had multiple doubters heading into his first season as the starter. He began the year on fire, averaging three passing touchdowns and 21.7 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks. After hitting a slump, the former Utah State star proved he is a franchise-caliber quarterback. Love was the QB2 over the final seven contests of the fantasy season, averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns and 21.6 fantasy points per game. The second-year starter has an exciting young core of receiving options, giving him significant fantasy upside.
Ty Chandler (MIN): ADP 143.9 | RB46
Some called Chandler a sleeper candidate earlier this offseason. Unfortunately, the Vikings swapped out Alexander Mattison for Aaron Jones in free agency. However, the veteran running back struggled with multiple injuries last year. Furthermore, Jones will turn 30 during the upcoming season. Chandler averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt and a 5.7% explosive run rate over the final four games last year (per Fantasy Points Data) despite facing the top-ranked run defense twice in that span. He is an injury to Jones away from being a top-20 guy.
More Busts & League Winner Candidates
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
