Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my bust and league-winner candidates from the AFC West teams – the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: AFC West
Potential Bust Candidates
Courtland Sutton (DEN): ADP 91.3 | WR49
Sutton had 10 receiving touchdowns last season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Not only were the 10 touchdowns a career-high, but they accounted for over 40% of his career total. Yet, the veteran was only the WR35, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing in 16 contests and his high touchdown rate. Over 37% of his fantasy points last year came from his receiving touchdowns. With Bo Nix taking over under center, don’t be surprised if Troy Franklin replaces Sutton as the No. 1 wide receiver.
Travis Kelce (KC): ADP 39.2 | TE2
While Kelce was the TE1 on a points-per-game basis last year, he wasn’t the elite tight end fantasy players expected. The veteran averaged 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest mark since playing with Alex Smith in 2016. Furthermore, his streak of seven consecutive seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards ended last year. While Kelce wants a full workload, the Chiefs likely cut back on his snap count, hoping to keep him fresh for the playoffs, especially after their additions at wide receiver this offseason.
Brock Bowers (LV): ADP 94.9 | TE10
Fantasy players loved Bowers before the NFL Draft. However, his redraft value took a hit after getting drafted by the Raiders. Davante Adams (175) and Jakobi Meyers (106) accounted for nearly 53% of the team’s target share last year. Furthermore, Bowers will have competition at tight end from Michael Mayer. More importantly, head coach Antonio Pierce wants to be a run-heavy offense, especially with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell under center. While he is a generational talent, Bowers might have to wait a year to have consistent fantasy value.
Quentin Johnston (LAC): ADP 149.6 | WR69
Unfortunately, Johnston had an awful rookie season, ending the year as the WR75, averaging only 4.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing 18 combined contests. Furthermore, he had the second-worst fantasy points per route run average (0.17) among wide receivers with at least 65 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, the Chargers will be a run-first offense under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Johnston could have a sophomore-year breakout, but that seems unlikely after Los Angeles drafted Ladd McConkey.
Potential League Winners
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN): ADP 153.7 | RB48
Denver’s backfield is a wide-open competition. However, McLaughlin is the only Broncos running back I’m drafting. He impressed as a rookie, averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt in the four contests with at least seven attempts. Furthermore, McLaughlin had the 12th-best explosive run rate among running backs with at least 75 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Sean Payton views him as his next Alvin Kamara and gives McLaughlin a significant workload, especially in the passing game.
Rashee Rice (KC): ADP 67.7 | WR40
Everyone expects Rice to get suspended after multiple off-the-field incidents this offseason. Therefore, his ADP could rise or nosedive depending on the length of the suspension. He was outstanding to end his rookie year. Rice was the WR6 from Week 12 through Week 17, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, they are downfield threats and should create easier targets for Rice in the middle of the field. He could lead the team in targets per game in 2024.
Zamir White (LV): ADP 87.6 | RB23
White was the RB8, averaging 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game during the four weeks Josh Jacobs missed with an injury last season. He had the fourth-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.06) among running backs with at least 30 attempts during those four weeks, ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, White had 20 or more touches in every contest, totaling 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but one game. He is one of my must-have running back draft targets.
Gus Edwards (LAC): ADP 121.5 | RB36
The veteran is coming off the best year of his career. Edwards was the RB20, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. While he had no role in the passing game, totaling 13 targets in 17 games, Edwards was a touchdown machine. The veteran had 13 rushing touchdowns, the third-most among running backs and the fifth-most in the NFL. More importantly, Edwards has little competition in the Chargers backfield. Expect Greg Roman to make him the focal point of the team’s offense, especially in the green zone.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
