Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust and league-winner candidates from the AFC South teams – the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: AFC South
Potential Bust Candidates
Stefon Diggs (HOU): ADP 31.4 | WR23
Fantasy players should avoid drafting Diggs anywhere near his current ADP. The veteran wide receiver has had back-to-back years with late-season struggles. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston after Nico Collins and Tank Dell had impressive years last season.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 33.5 | WR24
Pittman has consistently been a solid WR2 since his rookie year. The veteran had a team-high 156 targets last season, more than twice as many as anyone else except Josh Downs. However, he averaged 4.5 receptions per game and a 22% target per route run rate in the two contests Anthony Richardson finished last year (per Fantasy Points Data). By comparison, Pittman averaged 7.3 and 29% in the 12 contests that Gardner Minshew started. Furthermore, the veteran should see his target volume decline after the Colts drafted Adonai Mitchell.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX): ADP 43.9 | RB10
Many had high hopes for Etienne last season. The former Clemson star was the RB3, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was a massive bust in the second half of last year. Etienne was the RB2, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game over the first eight weeks. By comparison, he was the RB16, averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game over the final nine contests. More importantly, the coaching staff wants to reduce Etienne’s workload after his struggles in the second half of 2023.
Calvin Ridley (TEN): ADP 56.3 | WR35
While Ridley had massive expectations last season, the veteran wide receiver struggled. He was the WR17, averaging 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, Ridley could have been better. His 24 end zone targets were the most in the NFL, totaling more than Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase combined (per Fantasy Points Data). Yet, he had the same amount of end touchdowns as Brandin Cooks (seven). Unfortunately, the veteran’s got a massive downgrade at quarterback this offseason, which could lead to Ridley being a bust.
Potential League Winners
C.J. Stroud (HOU): ADP 66.3 | QB6
Stroud was an elite fantasy quarterback as a rookie, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the former Ohio State star was outstanding to end the year. Stroud was the QB5 on a points-per-game basis from Week 9 through the end of the season, averaging two passing touchdowns and 20.5 fantasy points per contest. More importantly, he was outstanding during that run despite playing only five games with Tank Dell. After the Texans added Stefon Diggs this offseason, Stroud has an elite receiving core at his disposal.
Anthony Richardson (IND): ADP 57.2 | QB5
Unfortunately, Richardson’s rookie season ended after playing only four games. However, the former Florida star was the QB11 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 18.2 fantasy points per contest. Yet, he left two games early with injuries. Richardson averaged 25.3 fantasy points, 211.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 48 rushing yards, and a touchdown in the two games he finished as a rookie. The Colts improved his receiving core, spending a second-round pick in the NFL Draft on Adonai Mitchell. Richardson has overall QB1 upside if he can stay healthy.
Christian Kirk (JAX): ADP 43.1 | WR30
The last time Kirk was Trevor Lawrence’s go-to wide receiver, he ended the year as the WR11, averaging 11.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran was the WR16, averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game from Week 2 through Week 12, despite Calvin Ridley seeing a 20% target per route run rate during those contests last season (per Fantasy Points Data). With Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. challenging defenses downfield, expect Kirk to see plenty of easy targets in the middle of the field.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): ADP 110.7 | RB33
Fantasy players had high hopes for Spears heading into the offseason. Unfortunately, the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a significant contract in free agency. Yet, the former Tulane star is one of my favorite mid-round running back draft picks this year. He had the fifth-best explosive run rate (7%) and the ninth-best yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). While Pollard won’t disappear into the background, Spears will be the better Tennessee running back.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
