Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust and league-winner candidates from the AFC North teams – the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts & League Winners: AFC North
Potential Bust Candidates
Derrick Henry (BAL): ADP 31.7 | RB9
Henry will replace Gus Edwards and his 13 rushing touchdowns from last year. However, Edwards was only the RB28 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Henry had his lowest yards per rushing attempt average (4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (3.32) since taking over as the full-time starter. The Ravens will have three new starting offensive linemen in 2024. More importantly, Henry will turn 31 before the end of the upcoming season. He might finally hit the wall and become a bust.
Zack Moss (CIN): ADP 92.2 | RB26
Some have high hopes for Moss after the veteran averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, his 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should wait 2.5 rounds and draft Chase Brown (ADP 122.5 | RB37) instead of Moss.
David Njoku (CLE): ADP 102.2 | TE11
The veteran tight end averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, Njoku was the TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per contest. By comparison, he was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per matchup. Unfortunately, Njoku won’t catch passes from Flacco in 2024. Furthermore, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival means there is one more receiver for Watson to target over the veteran tight end.
George Pickens (PIT): ADP 40.7 | WR28
Many have called Pickens a breakout candidate this season after the Steelers traded away Diontae Johnson. While fantasy players should have high expectations for the former Georgia star, he comes with significant downside. Pickens scored 43.9% of his fantasy half-point PPR fantasy points for the year in three games last season. More importantly, Arthur Smith never had a wide receiver finish higher than the WR35 during his three years with the Atlanta Falcons. While Pickens could have a breakout season, it’s far from guaranteed.
Potential League Winners
Isaiah Likely (BAL): ADP 179.3 | TE22
Handcuff running backs are ideal potential league-winner candidates. Anyone with Elijah Mitchell on their roster will have an RB1 if Christian McCaffrey misses time with an injury. While handcuffing tight ends is uncommon, Likely proved to be a league winner last year with Mark Andrews out of the lineup. He was the TE4, averaging 12.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game as the starter to end last season. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft Likely in standard-size redraft leagues. However, he’s an appealing late-round option in best ball drafts.
Jermaine Burton (CIN): ADP 149.7 | WR70
Burton was a popular dynasty rookie draft pick with Tee Higgins’ contract situation. While he signed the franchise tag and will play for the Bengals in 2024, Burton still has significant fantasy upside. The former Alabama receiver slipped in the NFL Draft because of off-the-field concerns. Yet, Burton is a talented player, ranking first in aDOT (20.2) among wide receivers in the draft class with at least 30 targets last year (per PFF). Higgins has dealt with injuries in his career. Burton could see over 100 targets as a rookie.
Deshaun Watson (CLE): ADP 162.2 | QB21
While fantasy players have forgotten about him, Watson was once one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He averaged 20.7 or more fantasy points per game in each of his first four seasons. More importantly, the veteran averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in the five contests he played at least half of the snaps last season. That average would have made him the QB13 on a points-per-game basis. Watson has his best receiving core since joining the Browns. Don’t be surprised if he has a career year.
Justin Fields (PIT): ADP 211.6 | QB32
Reportedly, Russell Wilson has the inside track on the starting role in Pittsburgh. However, fantasy players should take a shot on Fields, especially in superflex leagues. While the former Ohio State star isn’t a starting-caliber NFL quarterback, he is an elite fantasy quarterback because of his rushing abilities. Fields has averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game on the ground in his career. Meanwhile, Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense is perfect for rushing quarterbacks. Over the past two years, the Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks totaled 825 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.