Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, David Njoku, George Pickens

Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.

Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust candidates from the AFC North teams – the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Fantasy Football Draft Busts: AFC North

ADP via Underdog Fantasy

Potential Bust Candidates

Derrick Henry (BAL): ADP 31.7 | RB9

Henry will replace Gus Edwards and his 13 rushing touchdowns from last year. However, Edwards was only the RB28 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Henry had his lowest yards per rushing attempt average (4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (3.32) since taking over as the full-time starter. The Ravens will have three new starting offensive linemen in 2024. More importantly, Henry will turn 31 before the end of the upcoming season. He might finally hit the wall and become a bust.

Zack Moss (CIN): ADP 92.2 | RB26

Some have high hopes for Moss after the veteran averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, his 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should wait 2.5 rounds and draft Chase Brown (ADP 122.5 | RB37) instead of Moss.

David Njoku (CLE): ADP 102.2 | TE11

The veteran tight end averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, Njoku was the TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per contest. By comparison, he was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per matchup. Unfortunately, Njoku won’t catch passes from Flacco in 2024. Furthermore, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival means there is one more receiver for Watson to target over the veteran tight end.

George Pickens (PIT): ADP 40.7 | WR28

Many have called Pickens a breakout candidate this season after the Steelers traded away Diontae Johnson. While fantasy players should have high expectations for the former Georgia star, he comes with significant downside. Pickens scored 43.9% of his fantasy half-point PPR fantasy points for the year in three games last season. More importantly, Arthur Smith never had a wide receiver finish higher than the WR35 during his three years with the Atlanta Falcons. While Pickens could have a breakout season, it’s far from guaranteed.