NFL training camps have opened, and the heart of fantasy football draft season is just ahead. FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher begin a series of preseason roundtables by discussing the most compelling training camp battles, rookies with uncertain 2024 outlooks, play-callers in new places and more.
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Fantasy Football Roundtable
Which training camp battle do you find most compelling? Pick a team and a position group. What are the stakes for fantasy?
Bills WRs
Mike Maher: I’m not sure I agree with or understand Buffalo’s approach at WR. Moving on from Stefon Diggs is one thing. Letting Gabe Davis walk? Sure. But replacing them with journeymen like Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and the eighth WR off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft you snagged at the top of the second round (Keon Coleman)? On a roster that is otherwise ready to compete for a Super Bowl? That’s a head-scratcher.
That WR room is, at least on paper, so underwhelming many think TE Dalton Kincaid could lead the team in targets. And they might not be wrong. But this WR battle will be an interesting one to watch. Could Samuel see a ton of touches as a Swiss Army Knife? Can Coleman break out as a rookie and be a league winner you get late in fantasy drafts? Does Khalil Shakir, the lone returning WR, have a leg up on the competition because of his familiarity with the offense and Josh Allen? Or is this whole situation just a mess that will have a different leading receiver each week? We should start to get a clearer picture throughout training camp and the preseason. And if one of these WRs actually can separate from the pack, they could be a huge value.
Chargers RBs
Andrew Erickson: The market is throwing their hands up at this backfield between former Ravens RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Edwards got paid this offseason, but he’s never been “the” guy. Dobbins is by far the most talented but has been held back due to injuries. Then there’s Kimani Vidal, who has created little buzz since being drafted in the sixth round of this year’s draft.
We don’t know who will emerge as the featured runner on this team, but we do know a Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman offense is going to want to run the ball a lot. There’s immense upside at little risk for a Chargers RB to have a major impact in 2024.
Patriots WRs
Derek Brown: The Patriots’ receiving depth chart is one of the most interesting units to discuss. Each of these players is dirt cheap in drafts and the sentiment around this group, per average draft position (ADP) data/expert consensus rankings (ECR), is that they are all afterthoughts in fantasy this season. Someone (or multiple players) will emerge from this depth chart as a wonderful value this season.
Ja’Lynn Polk has been discussed as a possible leader of the group, with his second-round draft capital doing much of the heavy lifting for his hope. Kendrick Bourne is the grizzled, productive veteran who ranked 36th in yards per route run and first-read share and 22nd in targets per route run last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Javon Baker, one of my draft-season crushes, ranked eighth in yards per route run and 24th in receiving grade in his final collegiate season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). DeMario Douglas was the unquestioned WR1 for the team last year once he was a starter with a 20.8% target share and 24.4% first-read share.
If Drake Maye is the player many hope he is, or if Jacoby Brissett can be this year’s Geno Smith, some of these New England wide receivers will massively outperform where they are being drafted.
Broncos RBs
Pat Fitzmaurice: We’ve heard reports Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime are locks for Denver’s RB rotation and that Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are dueling for a single roster spot. Undrafted free agent Blake Watson might also be in the running for RB snaps. It’s a messy situation, but there are two reasons it’s a position battle worth following.
First, Sean Payton’s offenses in New Orleans routinely produced two or more fantasy-relevant RBs (Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister … Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram/Darren Sproles … Ingram/Alvin Kamara).
Second, the Denver backfield could be a reception factory. The Broncos led the NFL in RB targets last year with 153. The Jets were the only other team with more than 131 targets. Since 2011, Payton’s teams have accounted for eight of the 20 highest RB target shares in the league. (Hat tip to JJ Zachariason for that stat.) Rookie QB Bo Nix was a checkdown machine in college. One or two of these RBs are going to catch a boatload of passes this year.
Several teams have new offensive play-callers. Which of the offenses with new play-callers are most intriguing? Which player(s) from that offense will you be closely monitoring during training camp and the preseason?
Seattle Seahawks
Andrew Erickson: Ryan Grubb is in as the OC to overhaul an offense that grew stale during Shane Waldron’s last season in Seattle. This team is filled with talent at the WR, RB and TE positions. If that talent is deployed correctly during training camp and the preseason, fantasy gamers could see massive returns on players such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zach Charbonnet and Noah Fant.
Tennessee Titans
Pat Fitzmaurice: There are a lot of interesting pieces in this offense: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears. The fantasy value of those players hinges on how effectively second-year QB Will Levis can run new head coach Brian Callahan’s system. Tennessee could be an underrated source of fantasy goodness, or it could be a toxic waste dump.
It will be particularly interesting to see how Callahan deploys his RBs. During most of his four-year run as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, Joe Mixon was the clear lead back. But Callahan has already said he views Pollard and Spears as interchangeable co-starters.
Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Maher: We all saw the Eagles’ epic collapse last season. It was partly due to an absolute mess on defense, but it was also caused by an offense that got stale and predictable. Philly opted to keep head coach Nick Sirianni around, but they brought in OC Kellen Moore to overhaul the offense. The Eagles were at the bottom of the league in pre-snap motion rate the last couple of seasons, while Moore likes to use it to get his best players in space and force opposing defenses to reveal coverages.
WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith put up monster seasons despite the aforementioned offensive woes. The Eagles also haven’t targeted RBs in the passing game much under Sirianni and QB Jalen Hurts, but that should increase, as well. That combined with playing behind a good offensive line for the first time in his career should benefit RB Saquon Barkley.
If all goes according to plan (and everyone stays healthy), we could see many of the Eagles’ offensive weapons unlock new levels of production in 2024.
Washington Commanders
Derek Brown: We know Kliff Kingsbury will run an offense that pushes the play volume envelope and utilizes one rusher at the goal line. With the uncertainty around the target tree and rookie roles, Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey are wonderful late-round picks. Brian Robinson is also one of my draft-season man crushes. In 2019-2022, Kingsbury offenses ranked second in neutral pace with the 13th-most passing plays per 60 minutes. If Jahan Dotson continues to underwhelm and Zach Ertz is only a part-time contributor, so talented rookies McCaffrey and Sinnott could surprise people in 2024.
In 2020, Kenyan Drake ranked third in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, while James Conner was second in the same statistical category the following season. There’s plenty of value in this offense and reason to believe it will massively outperform expectations.
Is there a rookie who gives you mixed feelings? Why are you on the fence? What is the best-case/worst-case outcome for that player in Year 1?
Keon Coleman (WR – BUF)
Derek Brown: Since I dove into his talents as a prospect, I have stated Keon Coleman was being overrated by the draft community. That belief has continued into fantasy draft season. Coleman should fill a role for the Bills, but it’s difficult to see him as a smash value. I don’t agree with the consensus he should be the highest-ranked or first-drafted wide receiver from this offense.
It’s tough for me to buy in with Coleman after he ranked 79th or lower in his final two collegiate seasons in yards per route run and receiving grade, per PFF. The best-case scenario I can envision for him is he runs hot with touchdowns and finishes the year as a borderline WR3/WR4. Still, I can equally see him being this year’s Quentin Johnston and failing even to produce Flex-worthy numbers for fantasy squads.
Andrew Erickson: Anytime anybody mentions this guy, they talk about how “raw” he is. But Coleman also has a path to becoming the potential No. 1 WR attached to Josh Allen. The range of outcomes is extremely large with the former FSU receiver.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX)
Pat Fitzmaurice: The Jaguars’ top draft pick is surprisingly affordable for a first-rounder who stands 6-foot-3, has 4.33 speed and produced 1,177 yards and 17 TDs last year at LSU. But Thomas was a one-year wonder in college. It’s hard to tell how much of his 2023 success should be attributed to playing with Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels and sensational WR Malik Nabers.
It’s not hard to imagine Thomas as a co-equal with Jaguars WR Christian Kirk this season and a future WR1. But nor is it hard to imagine Thomas having the sort of season we’re used to seeing from, say, Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Mike Maher: Now, I’m cheating a little bit here. I don’t have a ton of concerns about Harrison as a player or prospect. But I have mixed feelings about his current ADP. He’s going off the board at 17 overall in half-PPR leagues, according to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP. He’s as high as 15 on Sleeper. That feels like we’re drafting a rookie at his absolute ceiling, which is where I get a little nervous.
The assumption everywhere is Harrison will be the locked and loaded WR1 in the Arizona offense and will immediately be QB Kyler Murray‘s favorite target. It’s a fair assumption, but we’re banking on a lot to go right at that ADP. The problem with this ADP is that the absolute best-case scenario is Harrison breaks out and turns out to be a reasonable pick in the early second round of drafts. But again, that’s the best-case scenario. If there are any rookie growing pains at all, missing on a pick this high can sink your fantasy season.
Which of the players who changed teams has you most excited?
Hollywood Brown (WR – KC)
Pat Fitzmaurice: I’ve never been especially smitten with Hollywood Brown, but if there’s a quarterback/coach combo that can coax a big season out of the speedy receiver, it’s Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid. Brown ran the 40-yard dash in 4.27 seconds at Oklahoma’s Pro Day in 2019. Reid is going to devise all sorts of evil schemes to leverage that speed.
The addition of Brown also bodes well for Mahomes, who slipped to QB12 in fantasy points per game last season, largely because he didn’t have a receiver who could reliably make plays downfield. Now Mahomes has at least one with Brown and maybe two if rookie Xavier Worthy pops right away.
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
Derek Brown: I have not been the most staunch supporter of Derrick Henry in the past, but I have changed my tune this year. The King has not fallen off at all in terms of efficiency after ranking ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Now, he’s in Baltimore in a run-first offense with a mobile quarterback who will open up running lanes.
The Ravens will ride King Henry all year, and it will be glorious. I will confidently draft him as an RB1 for my fantasy teams and pounce on him in any drafts where he slips a few picks past ADP.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
Mike Maher: Call me crazy, but I’m intrigued by Aaron Jones in Minnesota in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. I think he’ll fit the scheme well and I believe they’re going to feed him touches this year. The offense could take a step back without Kirk Cousins at QB, but I think they’ll be good enough to give Jones the volume and quality of touches we’re looking for.
This offense is going to be commanded by either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy, so we’re probably going to see more running from the Vikings in 2024. And since Jones also has a three-down skill set, there’s little worry about him coming off the field in obvious passing situations. Jones’ ADP is currently outside the top 50. That feels like a value to me.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
Andrew Erickson: Imagine Saquon Barkley running behind an offensive line that isn’t horrible. That’s what excites me about him with the Eagles in 2024 after Howie Roseman shelled out big money to get him in free agency.
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