Fantasy Football Busts: Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, Tyler Lockett

Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite fantasy football roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.

Today, I give my fantasy football draft bust and league-winner candidates from the NFC West teams – the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks.

Fantasy Football Draft Busts: NFC West

ADP via Underdog Fantasy

Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Trey McBride (ARI): ADP 47.1 | TE3

The young tight end had a breakout sophomore season. McBride was the TE4 in eight games with Kyler Murray, averaging 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He had a 29.9% receiving yards market share with Murray under center, posting a 14.4% higher rate than anyone else on the team (per Fantasy Points Data). However, that won’t be the case in 2024 after the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. While he is a top-tier tight end, McBride is getting slightly overdrafted at his current ADP.

Kyren Williams (LAR): ADP 28.6 | RB8

Williams was the RB6, averaging 19.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, he was a volume-based RB1. Williams ranked 20th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in missed forced tackle rate, and 26th in explosive run rate among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Blake Corum will have a meaningful role on offense, especially after Williams has dealt with multiple leg injuries in his career. While he is still an RB1, Williams comes with significant risk.

Christian McCaffrey (SF): ADP 1.3 | RB1

Some will argue that McCaffrey is the safest player to draft in 2024. He has been the RB1 in fantasy since joining the 49ers. The veteran averaged 22.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, 2.5 more per game than any other running back. However, the superstar led the NFL in touches for the second time in his career last year. The last time he led the league in touches was in 2019. McCaffrey struggled with injuries the following two seasons, playing in only 30.3% of the contests.

Tyler Lockett (SEA): ADP 100.4 | WR51

Unfortunately, Lockett’s fantasy production fell off a cliff in 2023. After averaging 12.1 or more half-point PPR fantasy points per game in five straight years, the veteran averaged only 9.6 last season. Furthermore, he had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2017. Lockett had five receiving touchdowns last year after totaling eight or more in five consecutive seasons. More importantly, his role on offense will decline, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba heading into his second year. He is significantly getting overdrafted as a ninth-round pick.