Everyone knows it’s important to hone in on sleepers in your 2024 fantasy football drafts. However, avoiding busts can be just as important so that you’re not wasting draft capital on players who are likely to underperform. FantasyPros analyst Derek Brown identified players he believes are likely to let you down in his Draft Day Cheat Sheet.
Here’s a look at the running backs busts he wants to avoid in fantasy football draft this season.
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated. Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active. Jacobs wasn’t the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs could be this season’s Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season, but don’t rule out MarShawn Lloyd playing a much bigger role this season than many anticipate. Jacobs is a shaky RB2.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Alvin Kamara retained his every-down role last year despite the team drafting Kendre Miller. Miller spent most of his rookie season on the injury report, so we’ll see if Kamara can hold him off in 2024, but at least expect Kamara to be a workhorse (maybe not a bellcow). Last year, Kamara was tenth in opportunity share, eighth in weighed opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. While Kamara’s rushing prowess took another massive hit (40th out of 49 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt per Fantasy Points Data), his receiving chops remained strong. Last year, out of 60 qualifying backs, he ranked first in target share (18.1%) and sixth in yards per route run. Kamara might not have the same bounce in his step as he did during the Drew Brees era, but his pass game and high-leverage usage in 2024 should keep him firmly planted in the RB1 ranks.
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