Targeting bounce-back candidates in fantasy football is akin to taking a trip to your local Dollar Store and finding something that was mismarked. You know that it is there, you just need to do a little digging first. Previously, I touched on quarterbacks and running backs that had the potential to rebound in 2024 strongly — most of which can be found in the AFC South. We continue that trend today, starting with the top receiving threat in an offense I’ll be targeting heavily in drafts, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Wide Receiver Candidates
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)
Some may have questioned the massive contract Jacksonville awarded Christian Kirk in free agency before the 2022 season, but he silenced his doubters quickly. Kirk posted the highest fantasy point total of his career (158) on an 84/1,108/8 split, finishing as the WR11 in PPR formats. Unfortunately, he couldn’t replicate the same level of success last season due to the added presence of Calvin Ridley, coupled with an inguinal groin tear he suffered in Week 13, forcing him to miss the remainder of the year.
When on the field and healthy, Kirk enjoyed a robust 21% target share and averaged the highest yards per catch (YPC) mark of his six-year career (13.8). His low touchdown reception total can be attributed to a few concentration drops around the red zone, but he was on pace to surpass his average of five per season. All of this points to Kirk being his normal productive self and falling within the upside-WR2 territory, which should make you feel optimistic about his potential.
Now fully recovered, Kirk will benefit from Ridley’s absence, who inked a four-year contract with divisional rival Tennessee Titans. Ridley’s 136 targets in 2023 were tied for the 16th-most in the league. One can assume they will be primarily spread among Kirk and tight end Evan Engram, with a smaller portion heading toward newly acquired Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
Currently, our 2024 projections have Kirk finishing the season with a 77/942/5 split — numbers I find rather conservative. His chemistry with quarterback Trevor Lawrence is evident for all to see and Kirk will re-inherit the WR1 role on a pass-heavy offense looking to compete for a playoff spot. Kirk is WR27 in our expert consensus rankings (ECR), but I’d feel comfortable sliding him up a place or two higher, above Stefon Diggs and Zay Flowers.
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR)
Before you roll your eyes at the selection, hear me out. Yes, I’m firmly aware the Carolina Panthers’ offense finished within the bottom 10 in pass completions, total yards, completion percentage and touchdown passes last year, resulting in a QB23 finish for Bryce Young. To put it mildly, he struggled during his freshman year on a team largely bereft of offensive talent and playmakers.
And yet, there is hope.
New head coach Dave Canales is introducing a more straightforward offense for Young to adapt to. Early reports have him picking things up quickly and being much more comfortable under center. For those unfamiliar with Canales, he led Baker Mayfield to the best season of his career in 2023 and is well acquainted with reclamation projects under center. The second season for quarterbacks is typically when things tend to “slow down” as they adapt to the game’s speed, allowing them to progress through reads more efficiently and understand defensive schemes faster.
Traded to Carolina in mid-March, Johnson is entering the final year of his contract, which is music to the ears of fantasy managers. A “prove it” season brings out the best statistics as players look for long-term extensions or new deals. No stranger to playing with quarterbacks that have glaring deficiencies, Johnson’s calling card has been his ability to run crisp routes as a possession option, something which the Panthers sorely lacked last year.
Johnson instantly slides into the WR1 role in Carolina, ahead of Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo and rookie Xavier Legette. He has maintained a target share of at least 23% in the past four seasons with Pittsburgh. His presence provides Young with a safety blanket when (not if ) plays break down. Carolina figures to be playing from behind early and often in 2024, which should lead to Johnson accruing a copious amount of “garbage time” production, Blake Bortles style.
Johnson’s high anticipated target volume and lead role on an ascending offense provide him with WR2 upside, but his current average draft position (ADP) has him falling all the way down to WR37 in drafts. To quote Matthew Berry, “The hate has gone too far”. If one was to discard last season’s injury-riddled fiasco with Mason Rudolph and focus on his stretch from 2020-2022, Johnson averaged 93 receptions for 988 yards and five scores. I’m not sure he will reach those figures in Carolina this year, but approaching them is well within reason. He also comes at a significant discount that should be capitalized for fantasy.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
