With best ball contests released thick and fast, it can pay to zoom out and consider where the best fantasy football draft values are in each round. Which players do we want to aggressively pursue before fantasy football average draft position (ADP) shifts as draft rooms get busier over the summer? Which players have we been overlooking? These are the best fantasy football values in each round based on the current Underdog ADP as July drafts get underway.
With best ball contests released thick and fast, it can pay to zoom out and consider where the best fantasy football draft values are in each round. Which players do we want to aggressively pursue before fantasy football average draft position (ADP) shifts as draft rooms get busier over the summer? Which players have we been overlooking? These are the best fantasy football values in each round based on the current Underdog ADP as July drafts get underway.
Despite playing with a miserable set of quarterbacks and a horrible offensive line, not to mention coming off an ACL injury, Breece Hall led all running backs with 93 targets and was second in receptions with 74. Due to the ineptness of the Jets’ offense, however, Hall finished with only eight touchdowns, tied for 17th among the position. Even with an aged Aaron Rodgers, that should be better this year. Hall has the RB1 overall potential in his outlook.
Telling yall now
2024: I will be a Top RB
I Will be in the Pro Bowl
I Will be an All Pro
For some reason, Deebo Samuel is being drafted behind Brandon Aiyuk, even though in 2023 Aiyuk managed only four top-20 weekly finishes, was held below 80 receiving yards on eight occasions, didn’t score touchdowns in 60% of his games and finished as WR30 or worse on six occasions. Meanwhile, Samuel had eight top-20 finishes, matched Aiyuk with eight games below 80 yards and only failed to score touchdowns in 43% of his games. Samuel is more productive, more diverse and wins in ways integral to the Niners’ scheme.
The Seahawks brought in new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb from Washington, hot off turning them into one of the most exciting offenses in college football. Grubb has reportedly told Geno Smith he sees this offense running through him as a drop-back passer and they’ll lean heavily on play-action, which will enable DK Metcalf more time to get open downfield and open up the field more. Metcalf has gone over 1,000 yards in three of the last four seasons seeing over 100 targets in each of his five years in the NFL. Metcalf has week-winning upside if this Seahawks offense can get back to their winning ways.
He might not be flashy or overly fancy but Christian Kirk is steady and reliable in an area of the draft where question marks start to emerge. Kirk has seen 218 targets in the last two years, resulting in eight top-15 weekly finishes, along with having a career-high 2.07 yards per route run in 2023. The additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have been made to stretch the field more, which in turn will make Kirk’s life easier by working closer to the line of scrimmage and picking up higher probability catches.
The biggest argument against Mark Andrews seems to be he’s 28 years old. Which, for the record, is six years younger than perhaps the greatest fantasy tight end we’ve ever seen in Travis Kelce, who has been dominating for the last five years. The emergence of Isaiah Likely is another knock on Andrews, but Todd Monken has had success with 2-TE systems previously and it’s not like the Ravens replaced Odell Beckham Jr., who had the second-most team targets in 2023. In best ball, we’re looking for ceiling outcomes and Andrews still possesses them.
We know the Titans believe in Will Levis enough to roll him out for his sophomore campaign and while we know that his profile isn’t one with a great success rate, the Titans have done everything they can to surround him with more talent heading into 2024. Hopkins is currently available 12 spots after Calvin Ridley, despite Hopkins outproducing Ridley in yards per route ran, yards per reception, receiving EPA, yards per game and points per touch in 2024. Banking on the elite receiver who has a pre-existing relationship with his quarterback seems like a smart move to me.
Kyler Murray returned from his ACL injury and surprised people with how much he rushed, averaging 30.5 yards per game, the sixth-most among quarterbacks and more than Josh Allen. With a second offseason in this offense and further removed from the ACL injury, Murray is a clear bounce-back candidate, particularly with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride now surrounding him. It’s not outlandish to think Murray can leap back into the top five of fantasy quarterbacks — a nice return on investment at his QB7 ADP.
When we draft rookies in best ball we’re hoping for them to turn into reliable options by the end of the season. We can build around them for the early stages of the year by taking veterans who, as they lose touches, are supplanted in our lineup for the emerging rookies. Jonathon Brooks might emerge much sooner than that with only Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard as competition. Either way, by the end of the season, when it counts the most, we should see the explosive runner with elite vision we saw at Texas.
The Commanders hopefully have found their franchise quarterback after years of mediocrity at the position. Jayden Daniels’ exciting style can be the perfect tonic. Daniels threw for 3,811 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final season at LSU, while also rushing for 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns. That was an average of a massive 11.25 rush attempts per game.
In 2022 & 2023 combined, there were 44 instances of a quarterback scoring more than 30.0 points during the fantasy season. Of those 44 instances, 27 (61%) featured a quarterback rushing for five or more attempts and 22 of those performances involved a quarterback rushing for 39 yards or more. Daniels does have a downside, but in best ball, where we chase nuclear outcomes, his are as potent as anyone’s.
2023 was the tail of two halves for the Cowboys. They disappointed before their Week 8 bye but from Weeks 9-17, Dak Prescott was the QB2 with 22.9 points per game, 0.1 behind overall QB1 Josh Allen. Since then, the Cowboys have downgraded at running back to a duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott.
While the running game looks set to regress, or at the very least not improve, the passing game should be at least as good as last year with CeeDee Lamb becoming one of the true superstars of the league. Outside of Lamb, the wide receiver room is barren with hopes being placed on Jalen Tolbert, meanwhile, Cooks had eight touchdowns last year and is one of the more reliable wide receivers in an area where the position is drying up very quickly.
Outside of Tuanon, there aren’t many people who enjoy drafting Tua Tagovailoa. While he’s paired with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it makes sense to be open to it. Tagovailoa was the QB5 in total points until Week 9, where his play dropped off somewhat as the Dolphins faced tougher opponents. It’s valid to be concerned by that, but there are reasons for optimism. Raheem Mostert is unlikely to score 20 rushing touchdowns again after running pure in 2023 and the defense looks set for regressions, which can help push the offense into more pass-heavy scripts. Further to this, a healthy Waddle will go a long way in helping Tagovailoa be more fruitful.
2023 was by far the rookie year Kendre Miller might have dreamed of, managing 3.0 yards per carry in the seven games he played. His first experience in the NFL was hampered by offseason injuries. Miller had rushed for over 1,400 yards and added 17 touchdowns in his final year at TCU before heading to the NFL. It would be wrong of us to write all that off after one year, particularly when the Saints seem lukewarm, at best, on Alvin Kamara, who is showing signs of decline and Jamaal Williams looked past it last year. With a new and more creative offensive coordinator, the Saints might surprise people this year.
“What I want to see from him is more consistency… I’ve seen burst and explosiveness, I’ve seen the ability to make people miss, I’ve seen good vision, one-cut ability. And yet, I want to see it more often.” pic.twitter.com/6s0LFaW6Zh
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 28, 2024
The Rams’ success in 2023 was headlined by Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, but at the heart of it was Matthew Stafford, who rolled back the years and played at a near-MVP level at times. Over the last four years, the only time Stafford has thrown fewer than 3,900 yards was in 2022 when he missed seven games through injuries and the Rams generally being inept. With it being easy to stack Nacua and Cooper Kupp, it makes too much sense to have some exposure to Stafford in three quarterback builds.
While everyone scrambles to decode the Patriots’ wide receiver room and decide which, if any, should be drafted, Hunter Henry quietly sits in the 14th round as a potential value. Henry saw 4.4 targets per game in a miserable version of this offense with Mac Jones at quarterback, with the ever-reliable Jacoby Brissett and electric Drake Maye, this offense can take a step forward. They certainly paid Henry like a player they expect to be a huge part of this offense.
Troy Franklin was a boom-or-bust type prospect out of a smaller school than many of the top wide receivers in this draft and there were plenty of question marks over his range of route running coming out of college. With that said, Franklin will have an immediate rapport with Bo Nix, who Franklin followed to the Broncos.
Everything the Broncos have put out suggests they were very high on him as a player. If Franklin can come anywhere close to the 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns he had in 2023 at Oregon, he’ll be one of the steals of the draft season. At this cost, we can deal with him even having as few as two big blow-up weeks.
Before Week 11, Demarcus Robinson played only 5% of snaps for the Rams as they allowed Tutu Atwell to make the role his. When Robinson earned his shot from Week 12 onwards, he averaged 80.7% of snaps. This in part is down to the Rams playing 3-WR sets at one of the highest rates in the league. Robinson had 13+ PPR points in all six of these games. With no wide receiver additions of note, it’s time to go back to the Robinson well in 2024.
The seat is firmly heating up for Daniel Jones despite a contract that’s less than 15 months old. Coming off an ACL injury is far from ideal for a player who consistently gets banged up. However, with the addition of Malik Nabers, Jones has his best pass-catcher since Odell Beckham left the Giants many years ago. The last time Jones was healthy, in 2022, he averaged 7.5 rush attempts per game, which is too valuable to be left completely undrafted.
Nobody wants to draft Derek Carr and nobody likes drafting Derek Carr, but it’s become a necessary evil at this point. Carr finished as the QB18 in total points with five top-12 weekly finishes. Something we can’t look down on when we’re building a roster to cover injuries and bye weeks. Add in a new, more fun offensive scheme and Carr should be able to return value as the QB26.
I'm a fantasy football addict, particularly in love with best ball and DFS. I can often be found scrutinising ADP and looking for edges in the best ball streets.
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