Fantasy trade deadlines are right around the corner and we don’t want to have any regrets. Each week during the season I take a look at four players you should buy high or sell low based on their current value.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Lineup Advice
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 18)
Buy High
Willson Contreras missed nearly a month and a half in May and June recovering from a fractured forearm. Even so, he is slashing .274/.394/.519 with 37 runs scored, 13 home runs, 29 RBI and three steals in 60 games played. He currently leads all catchers with at least 200 plate appearances in wOBA (.393) and xwOBA (.375).
His 13 homers rank eighth at the position even though he has 10 fewer games played than any other catcher in the top 15. His career-worse whiff rate (34.5%) is leading to a less-than-ideal strikeout rate (27.6%). However, he’s hitting the ball with so much authority and getting everyday at-bats. Contreras has a chance to be a top-five catcher the rest of the way.
Steven Kwan is having a phenomenal season. He’s slashing .342/.395/.502 with 58 runs scored, 11 home runs, 30 RBI and six steals in 79 games. Not only are his 11 homers a career-high, but they also tie his combined total from his first two seasons. It doesn’t appear in the underlying data that he has unlocked a new skill to account for this new dimension to his game.
However, we’ve also seen Josh Naylor set a career-high in homers possibly due to the stadium changes made in Cleveland’s outfield. Kwan does have three more home runs at home than on the road in 37 fewer plate appearances. Whatever the reason, fantasy managers are happy with the results. Imagine Luis Arraez with 15-18 homers… that’s how I would value Steven Kwan.
Sell Low
MacKenzie Gore is struggling after a strong start to the season. Overall, he is 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 in 105.2 innings across 21 starts. The strikeouts have been encouraging but he just doesn’t go deep enough into games. He has only gotten out of the sixth inning five times, though each time resulted in a quality start. His FIP sits at 3.38, suggesting he should be better but his .363 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is going to continue to limit him.
That is unlikely to get better as the Nationals are fifth in the league in the highest BABIP given up. He has never been much of a groundball pitcher but his groundball rate is a career-low and the ball has started flying as of late. The 25-year-old still has plenty of potential, but he isn’t likely to be a factor in fantasy down the stretch.
Andres Gimenez is having a disappointing season. He’s slashing .249/.299/.334 with 44 runs scored, five home runs, 45 RBI and 16 steals in 98 games. His expected batting average is in the 72nd percentile at .266 and his strikeout rate is in the 89th percentile but that is where the silver linings end. He has never hit the ball hard but his .281 wOBA is 35 points below his career average.
We have already seen him have 17 and 15 home run seasons, so it’s kind of a surprise to see he isn’t having the same success as other Guardians hitters. However, it may be explained by his 52% groundball rate and 36.5% chase rate. He does have the speed to be a difference-maker, however, he is one of 14 second basemen with at least 15 steals. Gimenez ranks 19th of all second base eligible players with 21 homers + steals.
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