The All-Star Break is approaching and the fantasy trade market is heating up. Each week during the season I take a look at four players who you should buy high or sell low based on their current value. The general idea is to buy (when their value is) high or sell (when their value is) low. Here are some players trending in different directions.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Lineup Advice
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 16)
Buy High: Ian Happ (OF – CHC)
Ian Happ has put together a solid season after a sluggish start. Overall, he’s slashing .245/.359/.457 with 49 runs scored, 14 home runs, 55 RBI and seven stolen bases in 86 games. He has three career 20+ homer seasons and is well on his way to a fourth. He’s always been a patient batter as evidenced by his 12% walk rate. This year, that number is up to 13.6%, good for the 96th percentile in the league.
His strikeout rate is a concern at 26.3% and that number has only gotten worse since his bad start in March/April. However, it’s a percentage point below his career rate, and just worse than each of the past two years by three percent. Happ isn’t super exciting but he is consistent and can be a solid four-category contributor.
Buy High: Christian Walker (1B – ARI)
Christian Walker had another crazy series at Dodger Stadium to give him 19 homers in 42 career games there. Even before this torrid three-game stretch, he’s put together a great season. On the year, he’s slashing .266/.339/.510 with 58 runs scored, 22 home runs, 65 RBI and two steals in 92 games.
He is sixth in the league in total barrels and top-20 in hard-hit balls. His strikeout rate is elevated at 24.7% but as hard as he hits the ball, this isn’t a big issue. He isn’t going to help your batting average, but Walker is one of the more underrated hitters in fantasy.
Sell Low: Randy Arozarena (OF – TB)
Randy Arozarena has had a tough season so far. He’s slashing .202/.312/.362 with 38 runs scored, 11 home runs, 29 RBI and 12 steals in 88 games. He has never been a Statcast standout but this year is looking as bad as ever.
His wOBA of .301 is the lowest of his career. His xwOBA, xBA and xSLG are in the 23rd, 10th and 18th percentiles, respectively. All of those are the worst since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021. He at least salvaged that season with 94 runs scored. Arozarena is a lock for 20 homers and 20 steals each healthy season. However, with the counting stats lacking and the batting average never being there, they feel like hollow stats.
Sell Low: Colton Cowser (OF – BAL)
Colton Cowser started the season blazing hot. However, since the start of May, he’s been struggling. In that time, he’s slashing .185/.281/.339 with 20 runs scored, six home runs, 16 RBI and two steals in 56 games. Most notably, he’s been sitting a lot, even against righties.
There is still a lot to like about his profile. He is in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and has a 49.7% hard-hit rate. His xwOBA and xSLG are both 80th percentile or better. The problem is he strikes out 29% of the time and the Orioles have so many options they don’t need to play the talented left-handed hitter every day. It wouldn’t be a total surprise to see him sent down to Triple-A at some point to work on some things.
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