Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Buy High & Sell Low (Week 15)

Each week during the season I take a look at four players you should buy high or sell low based on their current value. The general idea is to buy (when their value is) high or sell (when their value is) low. Here are some players that have my attention.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 15)

Buy High: Pablo Lopez (SP – MIN)

Pablo Lopez is 2-0 with a 0,64 ERA, 0.57 WHIP and 14.8 K/9 over 14 innings in his last two starts. It has been a rough season for him but his underlying numbers have always suggested much better results. His xERA (3.28) is more than a run better than his actual ERA (4.88). Lopez’s strikeout and walk rates are still elite but his problem this year has been an elevated home run total. He ranks 67th out of 68 qualified pitchers in HR/9 with 1.63. The good news is that number is by far the worst of his career. His HR/9 is greater than the league average this year. He has been better than average every other year since his rookie season. Look past his season-long statistics and buy, buy, buy.

Buy High: Jarred Kelenic (OF – ATL)

Since moving to the leadoff spot, Jarred Kelenic is slashing .322/.402/.597 with eight runs scored, five home runs, 11 RBI and two steals in 15 games. His underlying numbers are nothing impressive: 53rd percentile in exit velocity, 65th in xBA and 62nd in xwOBA. However, there have been some encouraging signs. He’s lowered his strikeout rate to 23.8% in the leadoff spot down from 30.5%. Kelenic is also seeing more fastballs this year and having more success against them. He has a .569 xSLG and .389 xwOBA leading to a .339 batting average on the pitch. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of the former top prospect but as long as he is leading off for the Braves he should provide value.

Sell Low: Brayan Bello (SP – BOS)

Brayan Bello has struggled to find consistency this year. He is 7-5 with a 5.55 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 across 71.1 innings. He has only made it through six or more innings in four of his 14 starts resulting in only three quality starts. Bello gets a lot of groundballs (54.3%) but he also allows a bunch of home runs. His 1.39 HR/9 ranks 89th out of 105 pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched. However, his xERA and xFIP are more than a full run lower than his ERA. The young righty’s strikeout prowess from the minors (11.1 K/9) has never shown up in his three years in the Majors. His strikeout (20.1%) and walk (9.1%) rates this year are in the 35th and 34th percentiles, respectively. He is a much better pitcher than a 5.55 ERA would suggest, but the lack of strikeouts will always limit his value.

Sell Low: David Fry (C, 1B, OF – CLE)

David Fry started the season off hot before crashing back down to Earth in June, slashing .223/.289/.357 with one run scored, zero home runs and five RBI. He was caught stealing once. There’s not a lot in the underlying data to account for the early success he had in May. His max exit velocity is lower than it was in a smaller sample size last year. There has been some speculation the changes the Guardians made to the seating in the offseason have led to the huge increase in home runs at the park. While that may be true, it would probably benefit the players with more secure playing time and not the 28-year-old utility player. His strikeout and walk rates are much improved on the season, but they have been trending more toward average in the past month. It was fun while it lasted with Fry, but we knew it wasn’t forever.